⚾ Daily Matchup Lab

Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.

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Thu, Jul 16, 2026
All Games (1) ★ Focus (0) Lineup Edge Pitcher Edge Balanced Low Confidence

Matchups

1 game
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
6:10 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park
Christian Scott vs Aaron Nola
New York Mets has the edge
Slight New York Mets AdvantagePitcher-Based Medium Confidence
New York Mets starter Christian Scott (3.15 ERA) — Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) — Overall: Slight New York Mets Advantage. Edge source: Pitcher-Based.
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New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Overall edge indicator — left = New York Mets · right = Philadelphia Phillies · away pitching edge · home lineup edge
Away Lineup: Confirmed
Home Lineup: Confirmed
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Christian Scott
New York Mets · RHP · 16 GS
Average
3.15ERA
1.26WHIP
11.10K/9
3.90BB/9
0.90HR/9
74.3IP
3.43FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Recent (21d): ERA 4.30 · WHIP 1.432 · 14.7 IP
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · RHP · 24 GS
Below Average
5.47ERA
1.45WHIP
9.30K/9
3.10BB/9
2.10HR/9
125.0IP
5.16FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Recent (21d): ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.455 · 22.0 IP
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Coming
  • We know what each hitter does vs every pitch family — we're still loading tonight's pitcher arsenals.
  • Once available, we'll match the pitcher's go-to pitches directly against each hitter's strengths and weaknesses.
  • For now, the table below shows each hitter's history vs pitch families this season.
New York Mets Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Aaron Nola )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 A.J. Ewing 0.381 189pa ★ 0.288 72pa 0.240 42pa 0.183 25pa ▼ 0.215 14pa Tiny Sample
2 Tyrone Taylor 0.343 123pa ★ 0.290 44pa ▼ 0.406 23pa Tiny Sample 0.145 14pa Tiny Sample —
2 Juan Soto 0.407 200pa 0.426 80pa ★ 0.375 41pa ▼ 0.372 32pa 0.306 17pa Tiny Sample
3 Bo Bichette 0.309 280pa 0.331 140pa ★ 0.309 62pa 0.289 52pa ▼ 0.198 16pa Tiny Sample
4 Francisco Lindor 0.296 167pa ▼ 0.350 46pa 0.324 43pa ★ 0.473 17pa Tiny Sample 0.197 16pa Tiny Sample
5 Carson Benge 0.379 286pa ★ 0.258 93pa 0.266 54pa 0.312 47pa 0.237 25pa ▼
6 Jorge Polanco 0.171 88pa ▼ 0.504 25pa ★ 0.260 30pa 0.123 13pa Tiny Sample 0.125 10pa Tiny Sample
7 Jared Young 0.346 141pa ★ 0.218 44pa ▼ 0.336 22pa Tiny Sample 0.279 25pa 0.467 10pa Tiny Sample
8 Brett Baty 0.341 229pa ★ 0.148 84pa ▼ 0.287 48pa 0.282 27pa 0.125 24pa Tiny Sample
9 Francisco Alvarez 0.356 177pa 0.305 91pa ▼ 0.388 32pa ★ 0.324 19pa Tiny Sample 0.451 9pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Philadelphia Phillies Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Christian Scott )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Trea Turner 0.322 306pa 0.235 141pa ▼ 0.231 48pa 0.344 49pa ★ 0.243 16pa Tiny Sample
2 Kyle Schwarber 0.444 255pa ★ 0.263 136pa ▼ 0.411 51pa 0.311 55pa 0.390 20pa Tiny Sample
3 Bryce Harper 0.413 245pa ★ 0.380 117pa 0.310 56pa 0.323 63pa 0.186 35pa ▼
4 Brandon Marsh 0.359 258pa 0.242 112pa 0.195 50pa 0.386 45pa ★ 0.183 26pa ▼
5 Alec Bohm 0.312 322pa 0.186 114pa ▼ 0.475 32pa ★ 0.226 23pa Tiny Sample 0.321 16pa Tiny Sample
6 Bryson Stott 0.359 260pa 0.374 84pa ★ 0.330 57pa 0.228 53pa 0.133 26pa ▼
7 J.T. Realmuto 0.306 233pa 0.297 65pa ★ 0.156 27pa ▼ 0.285 21pa Tiny Sample 0.221 12pa Tiny Sample
8 Gabriel Rincones Jr. 0.228 46pa ★ ▼ 0.271 14pa Tiny Sample 0.367 15pa Tiny Sample 0.000 9pa Tiny Sample 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample
9 Justin Crawford 0.309 217pa 0.299 68pa ★ 0.229 46pa ▼ 0.301 38pa 0.136 18pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Top New York Mets Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

  • 1.Carson Benge #5 Strong recent formBatting 1.041 OPS (last 14d, +0.301 vs avg); strong vs Fastball
  • 2.Jared Young #7Batting 0.750 OPS (last 14d, +0.010 vs avg); strong vs Fastball
  • 3.Francisco Lindor #4Batting 0.724 OPS (last 14d)
Top Philadelphia Phillies Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

  • 1.Bryce Harper #3 Strong recent formBatting 1.042 OPS (last 14d, +0.302 vs avg); strong vs Fastball
  • 2.Bryson Stott #6 Strong recent formBatting 1.007 OPS (last 14d, +0.267 vs avg); strong vs Slider/Sweeper
  • 3.Trea Turner #1 Strong recent formBatting 0.893 OPS (last 14d, +0.153 vs avg)
Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Christian Scott (New York Mets)
  • Elite strikeout rate (11.1 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (11.1 K/9)
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)
  • Above-average K rate (9.3 K/9)
  • Elevated HR/9 (2.1) — HR risk
⚠ Data Notes
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
  • Recent form data for 18 of 19 hitters
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages. Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order. Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.