⚾ Daily Matchup Lab
Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.
Tue, Sep 29, 2026Matchups
4 games
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Boston Red Sox starter Payton Tolle (3.03 ERA) — New York Yankees starter Cam Schlittler (1.95 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
Boston Red Sox 2.99 ·
New York Yankees 3.06 ·
total 6.05 ·
New York Yankees differential +0.08.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +3.08 · previous GE1 +1.06 · corrected GE1 +0.32
Previous GE1 runs: Boston Red Sox 2.52 / New York Yankees 2.78
Relative lineup movement: Boston Red Sox -0.103 runs; New York Yankees +0.131 runs.
Boston Red Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0072; combined factor 1.0072.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0561; combined factor 1.0561.
Boston Red Sox starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
New York Yankees starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Boston Red Sox 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; New York Yankees 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Boston Red Sox 2.52 / New York Yankees 2.78
Relative lineup movement: Boston Red Sox -0.103 runs; New York Yankees +0.131 runs.
Boston Red Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0072; combined factor 1.0072.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0561; combined factor 1.0561.
Boston Red Sox starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
New York Yankees starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Boston Red Sox 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; New York Yankees 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Boston Red Sox · right = New York Yankees · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Boston Red Sox lineup
Confirmed: Weak (87.1) · season 91.5 · recent 61.4
Order: top 102.7 · middle 85.9 · bottom 62.0
Handedness: 3 L / 5 R / 2 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.728 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3196 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Significantly weakened · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -42.1 quality points
Connor Wong absent · reason unknown
Masataka Yoshida absent · reason unknown
Nick Sogard in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 74.3
Trevor Story in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 51.1
Vs starter: 71 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
New York Yankees lineup
Confirmed: Below average (95.4) · season 88.3 · recent 114.7
Order: top 119.4 · middle 84.9 · bottom 70.6
Handedness: 6 L / 5 R / 0 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.761 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1368 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 53.5 quality points
Jazz Chisholm Jr. absent · reason unknown
José Caballero absent · reason unknown
George Lombard Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 102.3
Spencer Jones in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 79.4
Vs starter: 23 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.03ERA
1.10WHIP
10.40K/9
2.40BB/9
0.90HR/9
148.7IP
3.09FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
1.95ERA
0.92WHIP
11.10K/9
2.30BB/9
0.70HR/9
193.7IP
2.61FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Payton Tolle vs New York Yankees
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Cam Schlittler vs Boston Red Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Boston Red Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Cam Schlittler
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andruw Monasterio | 0.325 216pa ★ | 0.234 115pa ▼ | 0.274 28pa | 0.292 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.310 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 1 | Roman Anthony | 0.400 135pa ★ | 0.268 58pa | 0.263 33pa | 0.225 28pa ▼ | 0.157 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Adley Rutschman | 0.382 240pa ★ | 0.297 68pa | 0.209 89pa ▼ | 0.226 36pa | 0.245 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Willson Contreras | 0.419 320pa | 0.304 121pa ▼ | 0.465 67pa ★ | 0.320 38pa | 0.293 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Wilyer Abreu | 0.335 393pa | 0.368 124pa ★ | 0.287 106pa | 0.275 51pa | 0.225 33pa ▼ |
| 5 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.303 339pa | 0.414 142pa ★ | 0.317 67pa | 0.223 51pa ▼ | 0.650 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Nick Sogard | 0.353 176pa ★ | 0.232 50pa ▼ | 0.299 45pa | 0.235 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.161 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Jarren Duran | 0.313 317pa ★ | 0.213 124pa | 0.254 92pa | 0.236 66pa | 0.145 40pa ▼ |
| 8 | Trevor Story | 0.302 156pa | 0.277 92pa | 0.235 26pa ▼ | 0.358 30pa ★ | 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Caleb Durbin | 0.330 414pa | 0.290 128pa | 0.205 57pa ▼ | 0.382 29pa ★ | 0.287 13pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
New York Yankees Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Payton Tolle
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.327 237pa | 0.348 81pa ★ | 0.306 49pa ▼ | 0.325 32pa | 0.147 6pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Ben Rice | 0.435 372pa ★ | 0.338 164pa | 0.362 88pa | 0.311 71pa | 0.229 34pa ▼ |
| 3 | Trent Grisham | 0.306 346pa | 0.347 84pa ★ | 0.296 59pa | 0.255 29pa ▼ | 0.071 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Heliot Ramos | 0.296 272pa | 0.314 101pa | 0.223 48pa ▼ | 0.340 34pa ★ | 0.540 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Luis García Jr. | 0.366 259pa | 0.357 119pa | 0.295 117pa | 0.392 61pa ★ | 0.075 40pa ▼ |
| 4 | Cody Bellinger | 0.343 377pa | 0.361 99pa ★ | 0.239 65pa | 0.305 40pa | 0.200 37pa ▼ |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. | 0.322 132pa ★ | 0.281 42pa ▼ | 0.105 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.370 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Ryan McMahon | 0.328 220pa ★ | 0.142 85pa ▼ | 0.258 42pa | 0.241 44pa | 0.316 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Amed Rosario | 0.265 139pa ▼ | 0.303 55pa | 0.301 46pa ★ | 0.402 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Anthony Volpe | 0.338 138pa ★ | 0.276 69pa ▼ | 0.275 20pa Tiny Sample | 0.153 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Spencer Jones | 0.357 174pa | 0.366 61pa ★ | 0.300 45pa | 0.187 37pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Austin Wells | 0.353 235pa ★ | 0.161 84pa ▼ | 0.179 53pa | 0.234 25pa | 0.131 22pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Away bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Boston Red Sox bullpen
Season: Elite · rank 1 · 2.75 ERA · 3.46 FIP · 1.13 WHIP
Last 7 days: 25.0 IP · 1.08 ERA · 3 runs
Workload: 137 pitches / 6.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Taxed
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Patrick Sandoval · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 98 last 3 · heavy · inactive
Wyatt Olds · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 22 last 3 · moderate
Aroldis Chapman · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Miller · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Whitlock · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Aroldis Chapman · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 50 PA · 14 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 50 PA · 14 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Garrett Whitlock · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 26 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 26 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Erik Miller · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 5 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 3 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 5 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 3 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Tyron Guerrero · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 19 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 17 PA · 9 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 19 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 17 PA · 9 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Justin Slaten · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 17 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 17 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.712 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
New York Yankees bullpen
Season: Good · rank 5 · 3.12 ERA · 3.95 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 20.0 IP · 3.15 ERA · 8 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
David Bednar · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Ryan Yarbrough · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Fernando Cruz · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
John Schreiber · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tim Hill · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 David Bednar · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Fernando Cruz · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 6 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 6 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Brent Headrick · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 7 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 7 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 John Schreiber · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#5 Ryan Yarbrough · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 47 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 47 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
Top Boston Red Sox Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top New York Yankees Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Payton Tolle
(Boston Red Sox)
- Elite strikeout rate (10.4 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (10.4 K/9)
Cam Schlittler
(New York Yankees)
- Elite ERA (1.95) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (11.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.1 K/9)
- FIP (2.61) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/22)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Slight San Diego Padres AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd (3.91 ERA) — San Diego Padres starter Michael King (3.21 ERA) — Overall: Slight San Diego Padres Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
Chicago Cubs 4.90 ·
San Diego Padres 5.45 ·
total 10.35 ·
San Diego Padres differential +0.55.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +1.68 · previous GE1 +0.92 · corrected GE1 +2.18
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago Cubs 5.55 / San Diego Padres 5.78
Relative lineup movement: Chicago Cubs -0.086 runs; San Diego Padres +0.277 runs.
Chicago Cubs offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0480; combined factor 1.0480.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0705; combined factor 1.0705.
Chicago Cubs starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
San Diego Padres starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago Cubs 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; San Diego Padres 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago Cubs 5.55 / San Diego Padres 5.78
Relative lineup movement: Chicago Cubs -0.086 runs; San Diego Padres +0.277 runs.
Chicago Cubs offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0480; combined factor 1.0480.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0705; combined factor 1.0705.
Chicago Cubs starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
San Diego Padres starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago Cubs 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; San Diego Padres 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Chicago Cubs · right = San Diego Padres · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Chicago Cubs lineup
Confirmed: Strong (110.5) · season 111.5 · recent 89.4
Order: top 144.1 · middle 103.3 · bottom 73.8
Handedness: 2 L / 5 R / 2 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.757 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 3841 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Significantly weakened · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -42.7 quality points
Michael Conforto absent · reason unknown
Pedro Ramírez in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 75.0
Vs starter: 15 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
San Diego Padres lineup
Confirmed: Strong (111.2) · season 106.2 · recent 127.0
Order: top 113.7 · middle 120.2 · bottom 96.1
Handedness: 3 L / 7 R / 0 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.779 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/10 hitters · 1065 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 156.3 quality points
Miguel Andujar absent · reason unknown
Gavin Sheets absent · reason unknown
Freddy Fermin absent · reason unknown
Samad Taylor in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 134.6
Austin Hays in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 112.8
Luis Campusano in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 124.7
Vs starter: 89 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.91ERA
1.21WHIP
6.80K/9
2.80BB/9
1.10HR/9
126.7IP
4.26FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
3.21ERA
1.18WHIP
7.70K/9
3.40BB/9
1.00HR/9
185.0IP
4.18FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Matthew Boyd vs San Diego Padres
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Michael King vs Chicago Cubs
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Chicago Cubs Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Michael King
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0.403 392pa | 0.365 153pa | 0.345 93pa | 0.338 70pa ▼ | 0.543 36pa ★ |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | 0.361 429pa | 0.359 170pa | 0.387 60pa ★ | 0.339 53pa ▼ | 0.252 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Michael Busch | 0.345 426pa ★ | 0.334 146pa | 0.211 102pa ▼ | 0.335 53pa | 0.254 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Seiya Suzuki | 0.407 348pa ★ | 0.287 179pa ▼ | 0.313 45pa | 0.293 52pa | 0.474 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Ian Happ | 0.343 347pa | 0.367 112pa ★ | 0.199 130pa ▼ | 0.333 63pa | 0.353 31pa |
| 6 | Nico Hoerner | 0.296 472pa | 0.383 147pa ★ | 0.182 64pa ▼ | 0.324 43pa | 0.425 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Pedro Ramírez | 0.350 158pa ★ | 0.276 50pa ▼ | 0.297 51pa | 0.146 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.280 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Carson Kelly | 0.344 273pa ▼ | 0.338 123pa ★ | 0.332 36pa | 0.077 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.126 7pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Michael Conforto | 0.399 190pa ★ | 0.357 52pa | 0.214 62pa ▼ | 0.284 35pa | 0.040 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | 0.363 299pa ★ | 0.267 127pa | 0.208 56pa | 0.079 38pa ▼ | 0.099 7pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
San Diego Padres Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Matthew Boyd
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.373 432pa ★ | 0.352 175pa | 0.350 73pa | 0.335 40pa ▼ | 0.000 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Samad Taylor | 0.390 121pa ★ | 0.262 40pa ▼ | 0.264 16pa Tiny Sample | 0.139 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.069 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Jase Bowen | 0.281 79pa ★ | 0.277 30pa ▼ | 0.195 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.177 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | 0.347 106pa | 0.247 29pa ▼ | 0.463 27pa ★ | 0.155 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.110 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 0.366 399pa ★ | 0.246 170pa | 0.213 82pa ▼ | 0.274 47pa | 0.197 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Ty France | 0.358 333pa | 0.364 117pa | 0.505 55pa ★ | 0.261 46pa ▼ | 0.388 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | 0.346 387pa ★ | 0.270 128pa | 0.275 97pa | 0.319 73pa | 0.178 40pa ▼ |
| 6 | Austin Hays | 0.386 65pa ★ | 0.248 44pa ▼ | 0.260 21pa Tiny Sample | 0.296 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Xander Bogaerts | 0.342 407pa ★ | 0.276 133pa | 0.255 53pa | 0.187 47pa ▼ | 0.129 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Jake Cronenworth | 0.343 283pa ★ | 0.234 79pa | 0.146 61pa ▼ | 0.266 46pa | 0.367 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Luis Campusano | 0.366 173pa ★ | 0.267 66pa ▼ | 0.359 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.282 28pa | — |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Chicago Cubs bullpen
Season: Average · rank 17 · 3.75 ERA · 4.51 FIP · 1.25 WHIP
Last 7 days: 20.0 IP · 2.25 ERA · 5 runs
Workload: 100 pitches / 8.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Taxed
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Braxton Garrett · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 70 last 3 · heavy · inactive
Colin Rea · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 20 last 3 · moderate
Jacob Webb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 10 last 3 · fresh
Ryan Zeferjahn · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Caleb Thielbar · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Ryan Zeferjahn · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 7 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 7 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Jacob Webb · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 9 saves · 9 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 3 K / 4 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 9 saves · 9 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 3 K / 4 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#3 Ryan Rolison · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Daniel Palencia · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 3 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 2 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 3 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 2 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Drew Pomeranz · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 8 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
setup role · 8 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
San Diego Padres bullpen
Season: Good · rank 8 · 3.37 ERA · 3.61 FIP · 1.23 WHIP
Last 7 days: 27.1 IP · 4.61 ERA · 14 runs
Workload: 64 pitches / 3.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Moderate
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Griffin Canning · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 64 last 3 · heavy · inactive
Mason Miller · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Adrian Morejon · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jason Adam · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bradgley Rodriguez · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Adrian Morejon · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.805 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 7 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.805 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 7 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Mason Miller · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#3 Bradgley Rodriguez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Jason Adam · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.757 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Yuki Matsui · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.805 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.805 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Chicago Cubs Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top San Diego Padres Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Matthew Boyd
(Chicago Cubs)
- No significant outliers in available metrics
Michael King
(San Diego Padres)
- No significant outliers in available metrics
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/21)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Slight Atlanta Braves AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo (2.86 ERA) — Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale (2.16 ERA) — Overall: Slight Atlanta Braves Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
Philadelphia Phillies 2.88 ·
Atlanta Braves 3.38 ·
total 6.27 ·
Atlanta Braves differential +0.50.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +2.14 · previous GE1 +2.96 · corrected GE1 +2.01
Previous GE1 runs: Philadelphia Phillies 2.37 / Atlanta Braves 3.11
Relative lineup movement: Philadelphia Phillies -0.101 runs; Atlanta Braves +0.085 runs.
Philadelphia Phillies offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0098; combined factor 1.0098.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0077; combined factor 0.9923.
Philadelphia Phillies starter: 27.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Atlanta Braves starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Philadelphia Phillies 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Atlanta Braves 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Philadelphia Phillies 2.37 / Atlanta Braves 3.11
Relative lineup movement: Philadelphia Phillies -0.101 runs; Atlanta Braves +0.085 runs.
Philadelphia Phillies offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0098; combined factor 1.0098.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0077; combined factor 0.9923.
Philadelphia Phillies starter: 27.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Atlanta Braves starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Philadelphia Phillies 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Atlanta Braves 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Philadelphia Phillies · right = Atlanta Braves · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Philadelphia Phillies lineup
Confirmed: Weak (87.0) · season 95.1 · recent 43.6
Order: top 110.0 · middle 91.8 · bottom 58.9
Handedness: 5 L / 6 R / 0 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.719 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1732 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 0 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.0 quality points
Vs starter: 165 combined direct PA · Meaningful sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Atlanta Braves lineup
Confirmed: Below average (95.9) · season 91.3 · recent 93.9
Order: top 143.5 · middle 93.7 · bottom 59.7
Handedness: 4 L / 6 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.703 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/11 hitters · 1643 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 23.6 quality points
Dominic Smith absent · reason unknown
Raisel Iglesias in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 100.0
Vs starter: 160 combined direct PA · Meaningful sample. Pitch interaction: partial.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Above Average
2.86ERA
1.07WHIP
11.10K/9
2.60BB/9
0.80HR/9
179.7IP
2.83FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
2.16ERA
0.98WHIP
11.10K/9
1.70BB/9
0.60HR/9
162.7IP
2.34FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Jesús Luzardo vs Atlanta Braves
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Chris Sale vs Philadelphia Phillies
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Philadelphia Phillies Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Chris Sale
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | 0.323 400pa ★ | 0.232 188pa | 0.198 73pa ▼ | 0.314 70pa | 0.268 25pa |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.420 373pa ★ | 0.283 179pa ▼ | 0.352 64pa | 0.309 70pa | 0.304 41pa |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | 0.420 341pa ★ | 0.346 159pa | 0.347 80pa | 0.329 81pa | 0.207 57pa ▼ |
| 4 | Alec Bohm | 0.324 434pa | 0.224 145pa ▼ | 0.426 46pa ★ | 0.290 38pa | 0.442 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Derek Hill | 0.341 141pa | 0.336 66pa ★ | 0.254 29pa ▼ | 0.368 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.176 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Brandon Marsh | 0.349 324pa | 0.224 132pa | 0.204 69pa | 0.364 52pa ★ | 0.186 37pa ▼ |
| 6 | Bryan De La Cruz | 0.333 77pa ▼ | 0.375 32pa ★ | 0.338 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.265 11pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 7 | Bryson Stott | 0.350 363pa | 0.357 117pa ★ | 0.315 72pa | 0.228 63pa | 0.136 45pa ▼ |
| 8 | Edmundo Sosa | 0.293 144pa | 0.264 71pa ▼ | 0.359 44pa ★ | 0.280 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.406 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Justin Crawford | 0.313 289pa ★ | 0.268 85pa | 0.258 59pa | 0.249 46pa | 0.165 32pa ▼ |
| 9 | J.T. Realmuto | 0.281 321pa | 0.294 93pa ★ | 0.202 46pa ▼ | 0.223 30pa | 0.264 16pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Atlanta Braves Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Jesús Luzardo
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | 0.388 358pa ★ | 0.306 150pa | 0.311 86pa | 0.258 60pa ▼ | 0.319 34pa |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0.331 326pa | 0.354 92pa ★ | 0.309 48pa ▼ | 0.489 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.257 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Matt Olson | 0.352 448pa | 0.331 164pa | 0.412 72pa ★ | 0.255 64pa ▼ | 0.248 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Mauricio Dubón | 0.317 400pa | 0.318 148pa | 0.259 80pa ▼ | 0.353 35pa ★ | 0.261 26pa |
| 5 | Michael Harris II | 0.349 332pa | 0.361 175pa ★ | 0.321 87pa | 0.262 63pa ▼ | 0.353 31pa |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | 0.320 370pa ★ | 0.313 113pa | 0.262 131pa | 0.266 82pa | 0.225 47pa ▼ |
| 7 | Austin Riley | 0.323 412pa ★ | 0.277 161pa | 0.249 62pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ | 0.281 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Mike Yastrzemski | 0.341 258pa | 0.219 87pa ▼ | 0.266 56pa | 0.414 34pa ★ | 0.147 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Raisel Iglesias | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | Dominic Smith | 0.317 187pa | 0.327 56pa | 0.149 42pa ▼ | 0.351 34pa ★ | 0.326 20pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Ha-Seong Kim | 0.186 104pa ★ ▼ | 0.175 29pa | 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample | 0.126 7pa Tiny Sample | 0.314 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Brewer Hicklen | 0.288 39pa ★ ▼ | 0.382 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.355 6pa Tiny Sample | — | 0.172 4pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen clear advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Philadelphia Phillies bullpen
Season: Weak · rank 20 · 4.28 ERA · 3.92 FIP · 1.34 WHIP
Last 7 days: 22.1 IP · 6.45 ERA · 16 runs
Workload: 185 pitches / 11.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Taxed
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
José Urquidy · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 50 last 3 · heavy
Alex McFarlane · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 22 last 3 · moderate
Tanner Banks · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 21 last 3 · moderate
Chase Shugart · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 29 last 3 · moderate
Jhoan Duran · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 13 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Jhoan Duran · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 33 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 7 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 33 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 7 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Brad Keller · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Caleb Kilian · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 4 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 8 saves · 4 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 José Alvarado · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 16 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.703 OPS vs LHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 73 PA · 14 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 16 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.703 OPS vs LHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 73 PA · 14 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#5 Jonathan Bowlan · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 15 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.748 OPS vs RHP · 10/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 15 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
Atlanta Braves bullpen
Season: Good · rank 7 · 3.37 ERA · 3.99 FIP · 1.17 WHIP
Last 7 days: 25.2 IP · 4.56 ERA · 13 runs
Workload: 119 pitches / 8.1 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Moderate
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Victor Mederos · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 36 last 3 · heavy
Dylan Dodd · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 25 last 3 · moderate
Raisel Iglesias · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 10 last 3 · fresh
Robert Suarez · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 8 last 3 · fresh
Didier Fuentes · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Raisel Iglesias · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 106 PA · 31 K / 5 BB / 8 HR · medium sample
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 106 PA · 31 K / 5 BB / 8 HR · medium sample
#2 Didier Fuentes · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 17 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 17 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Robert Suarez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 8 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.733 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 8 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Dylan Lee · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.719 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 76 PA · 20 K / 7 BB / 3 HR · medium sample
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.719 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 76 PA · 20 K / 7 BB / 3 HR · medium sample
#5 Brent Suter · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.719 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 64 PA · 13 K / 6 BB / 4 HR · small sample
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.719 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 64 PA · 13 K / 6 BB / 4 HR · small sample
Top Philadelphia Phillies Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Atlanta Braves Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Jesús Luzardo
(Philadelphia Phillies)
- Elite ERA (2.86) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (11.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.1 K/9)
- FIP (2.83) confirms elite results
Chris Sale
(Atlanta Braves)
- Elite ERA (2.16) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (11.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.1 K/9)
- Excellent HR suppression (0.6 HR/9)
- Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
- FIP (2.34) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/23)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Slight Chicago White Sox AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Chicago White Sox starter Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA) — Houston Astros starter AJ Blubaugh (3.66 ERA) — Overall: Slight Chicago White Sox Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
Chicago White Sox 4.88 ·
Houston Astros 4.19 ·
total 9.07 ·
Houston Astros differential -0.70.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean -5.11 · previous GE1 -1.13 · corrected GE1 -2.78
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.96 / Houston Astros 4.68
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.036 runs; Houston Astros +0.191 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0003; combined factor 1.0003.
Houston Astros offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0207; combined factor 1.0207.
Chicago White Sox starter: 8.0 BF · opener · single current season start
Houston Astros starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · neutral starter fallback
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 8 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Houston Astros 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.96 / Houston Astros 4.68
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.036 runs; Houston Astros +0.191 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0003; combined factor 1.0003.
Houston Astros offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0207; combined factor 1.0207.
Chicago White Sox starter: 8.0 BF · opener · single current season start
Houston Astros starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · neutral starter fallback
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 8 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Houston Astros 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Chicago White Sox · right = Houston Astros · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Chicago White Sox lineup
Confirmed: Above average (103.1) · season 100.4 · recent 107.1
Order: top 111.5 · middle 101.2 · bottom 89.6
Handedness: 6 L / 5 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.723 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 12/12 hitters · 3771 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 0 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.0 quality points
Vs starter: 18 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Houston Astros lineup
Confirmed: Strong (117.4) · season 106.5 · recent 139.1
Order: top 179.7 · middle 101.8 · bottom 71.5
Handedness: 3 L / 7 R / 0 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.730 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/10 hitters · 1116 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 49.4 quality points
Christian Vázquez absent · reason unknown
Nelson Velázquez in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 80.4
Vs starter: 0 combined direct PA · No history. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Building Sample
1.29ERA
0.96WHIP
13.20K/9
5.10BB/9
0.00HR/9
28.0IP
1.94FIP
⚠ 28.0 IP gives usable pitcher context — but only 1 GS means starter-role performance is less certain.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
3.66ERA
1.23WHIP
8.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.20HR/9
96.0IP
4.36FIP
⚠ 96.0 IP gives usable pitcher context — but only 0 GS means starter-role performance is less certain.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Hagen Smith vs Houston Astros
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
AJ Blubaugh vs Chicago White Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Chicago White Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
AJ Blubaugh
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | 0.382 368pa ★ | 0.256 113pa | 0.232 62pa ▼ | 0.378 35pa | 0.354 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 1 | Brenton Doyle | 0.327 143pa ★ | 0.205 73pa ▼ | 0.306 38pa | 0.420 12pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | 0.352 101pa ★ | 0.268 45pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.245 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.395 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | 0.367 502pa | 0.344 157pa | 0.375 57pa ★ | 0.314 61pa ▼ | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | 0.374 310pa | 0.263 165pa ▼ | 0.380 57pa | 0.433 48pa ★ | 0.170 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.346 260pa ★ | 0.298 112pa | 0.198 75pa | 0.349 37pa | 0.171 30pa ▼ |
| 5 | Luisangel Acuña | 0.303 150pa ★ | 0.248 63pa | 0.119 40pa ▼ | 0.311 15pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 5 | Randal Grichuk | 0.353 167pa | 0.373 76pa ★ | 0.312 52pa ▼ | 0.239 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Tristan Peters | 0.351 316pa | 0.389 90pa ★ | 0.252 64pa | 0.241 54pa ▼ | 0.353 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Braden Montgomery | 0.379 200pa ★ | 0.245 65pa | 0.189 71pa | 0.267 33pa | 0.117 30pa ▼ |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth | 0.356 415pa ★ | 0.310 151pa | 0.345 92pa | 0.251 40pa ▼ | 0.389 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Colson Montgomery | 0.317 429pa | 0.225 146pa ▼ | 0.293 69pa | 0.269 41pa | 0.360 26pa ★ |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Houston Astros Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Hagen Smith
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Peña | 0.398 260pa ★ | 0.321 139pa | 0.206 42pa ▼ | 0.209 43pa | 0.446 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez | 0.439 379pa | 0.350 136pa ▼ | 0.376 103pa | 0.455 58pa ★ | 0.405 33pa |
| 3 | Isaac Paredes | 0.390 420pa ★ | 0.303 139pa | 0.282 72pa | 0.165 52pa ▼ | 0.394 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Jose Altuve | 0.324 356pa ★ | 0.242 179pa ▼ | 0.289 45pa | 0.313 30pa | 0.235 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Yainer Diaz | 0.322 203pa | 0.308 108pa | 0.365 52pa ★ | 0.163 28pa ▼ | 0.497 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Christian Walker | 0.295 399pa | 0.353 165pa ★ | 0.281 52pa | 0.233 50pa ▼ | 0.383 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Lucas Spence | 0.362 42pa ★ ▼ | 0.283 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.265 11pa Tiny Sample | 0.157 9pa Tiny Sample | 0.416 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Cam Smith | 0.314 366pa | 0.282 136pa | 0.211 61pa ▼ | 0.293 29pa | 0.353 25pa ★ |
| 9 | Taylor Trammell | 0.334 176pa | 0.203 63pa ▼ | 0.226 52pa | 0.410 27pa ★ | 0.104 12pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Nelson Velázquez | 0.386 101pa ★ | 0.188 25pa ▼ | 0.339 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.423 12pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen clear advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Chicago White Sox bullpen
Season: Weak · rank 20 · 3.61 ERA · 4.08 FIP · 1.27 WHIP
Last 7 days: 31.2 IP · 4.26 ERA · 15 runs
Workload: 179 pitches / 12.1 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Taxed
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Sean Newcomb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 39 last 3 · heavy
Trevor Richards · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 46 last 3 · heavy · inactive
Noah Schultz · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 42 last 3 · heavy
Grant Taylor · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Hudson · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 15 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Grant Taylor · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Bryan Hudson · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Huascar Brazobán · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 11 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 11 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Jordan Hicks · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 50 PA · 13 K / 8 BB / 2 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.783 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 50 PA · 13 K / 8 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#5 Sean Newcomb · LHP · workload limited · heavy
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
Houston Astros bullpen
Season: Average · rank 18 · 3.90 ERA · 4.25 FIP · 1.24 WHIP
Last 7 days: 31.2 IP · 1.14 ERA · 5 runs
Workload: 131 pitches / 9.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Moderate
Availability: legacy partial · source current through 2026-09-29 13:15:31
Bryan King · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 23 last 3 · moderate
Ethan Pecko · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 34 last 3 · moderate · inactive
Ronel Blanco · multi inning · 0 pitches yesterday / 30 last 3 · moderate · inactive
Josh Hader · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Abreu · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Josh Hader · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 26 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 10 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 26 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 10 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Bryan Abreu · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 9 saves · 16 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 9 saves · 16 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 9 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Enyel De Los Santos · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 5 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 5 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#4 AJ Blubaugh · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Bryan King · LHP · likely available option · moderate
closer role · 6 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Chicago White Sox Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Houston Astros Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Hagen Smith
(Chicago White Sox)
- Elite ERA (1.29) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (13.2 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (13.2 K/9)
- Excellent HR suppression (0.0 HR/9)
- Control concerns (5.1 BB/9)
- FIP (1.94) confirms elite results
AJ Blubaugh
(Houston Astros)
- Above-average K rate (8.8 K/9)
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/22)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
- One starter has a tiny MLB sample; pitcher edge reduced.
- Game Edge V1 confidence capped by degraded core participant inputs.
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages.
Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order.
Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.