⚾ Daily Matchup Lab
Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Matchups
4 games
Slight Milwaukee Brewers AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
San Diego Padres starter Robbie Ray (3.59 ERA) — Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski (1.80 ERA) — Overall: Slight Milwaukee Brewers Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
San Diego Padres 3.45 ·
Milwaukee Brewers 4.83 ·
total 8.28 ·
Milwaukee Brewers differential +1.39.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +7.92 · previous GE1 +8.65 · corrected GE1 +5.55
Previous GE1 runs: San Diego Padres 3.19 / Milwaukee Brewers 5.36
Relative lineup movement: San Diego Padres +0.069 runs; Milwaukee Brewers -0.028 runs.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0082; combined factor 1.0082.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0532; combined factor 1.0532.
San Diego Padres starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 20.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: San Diego Padres 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Milwaukee Brewers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: San Diego Padres 3.19 / Milwaukee Brewers 5.36
Relative lineup movement: San Diego Padres +0.069 runs; Milwaukee Brewers -0.028 runs.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0082; combined factor 1.0082.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0532; combined factor 1.0532.
San Diego Padres starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 20.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: San Diego Padres 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Milwaukee Brewers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = San Diego Padres · right = Milwaukee Brewers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
San Diego Padres lineup
Confirmed: Below average (96.9) · season 93.7 · recent 99.3
Order: top 112.6 · middle 103.8 · bottom 83.3
Handedness: 4 L / 9 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.729 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 13/13 hitters · 3563 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 25.3 quality points
Gavin Sheets absent · reason unknown
Samad Taylor in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 120.9
Vs starter: 19 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Milwaukee Brewers lineup
Confirmed: Above average (109.7) · season 114.3 · recent 80.5
Order: top 134.9 · middle 111.5 · bottom 74.9
Handedness: 4 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.756 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/10 hitters · 1395 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 25.6 quality points
David Hamilton absent · reason unknown
Sal Frelick absent · reason unknown
Cooper Pratt in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 89.4
Luis Lara in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 39.3
Vs starter: 62 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.59ERA
1.35WHIP
7.60K/9
4.60BB/9
1.20HR/9
165.7IP
4.74FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Elite
1.80ERA
0.80WHIP
13.00K/9
2.30BB/9
0.70HR/9
174.7IP
2.22FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Robbie Ray vs Milwaukee Brewers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Jacob Misiorowski vs San Diego Padres
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
San Diego Padres Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Jacob Misiorowski
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.373 432pa ★ | 0.352 175pa | 0.350 73pa | 0.335 40pa ▼ | 0.000 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | 0.347 106pa | 0.247 29pa ▼ | 0.463 27pa ★ | 0.155 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.110 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 0.366 399pa ★ | 0.246 170pa | 0.213 82pa ▼ | 0.274 47pa | 0.197 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Ty France | 0.358 333pa | 0.364 117pa | 0.505 55pa ★ | 0.261 46pa ▼ | 0.388 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | 0.346 387pa ★ | 0.270 128pa | 0.275 97pa | 0.319 73pa | 0.178 40pa ▼ |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | 0.342 407pa ★ | 0.276 133pa | 0.255 53pa | 0.187 47pa ▼ | 0.129 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Ethan Salas | 0.375 37pa ★ ▼ | 0.121 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Samad Taylor | 0.390 121pa ★ | 0.262 40pa ▼ | 0.264 16pa Tiny Sample | 0.139 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.069 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Miguel Andujar | 0.315 163pa ★ | 0.245 75pa | 0.257 31pa ▼ | 0.517 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.504 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Luis Campusano | 0.366 173pa ★ | 0.267 66pa ▼ | 0.359 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.282 28pa | — |
| 8 | Jase Bowen | 0.281 79pa ★ | 0.277 30pa ▼ | 0.195 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.177 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Freddy Fermin | 0.290 184pa ★ | 0.283 69pa ▼ | 0.243 21pa Tiny Sample | 0.240 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.352 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | 0.343 283pa ★ | 0.234 79pa | 0.146 61pa ▼ | 0.266 46pa | 0.367 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Austin Hays | 0.386 65pa ★ | 0.248 44pa ▼ | 0.260 21pa Tiny Sample | 0.296 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Milwaukee Brewers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Robbie Ray
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | 0.377 357pa | 0.258 153pa ▼ | 0.353 68pa | 0.487 39pa ★ | 0.190 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 0.393 410pa ★ | 0.307 150pa | 0.283 80pa | 0.349 57pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ |
| 3 | William Contreras | 0.379 417pa ★ | 0.262 162pa ▼ | 0.283 59pa | 0.280 41pa | 0.297 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Jake Bauers | 0.413 378pa | 0.385 141pa | 0.422 62pa ★ | 0.298 61pa ▼ | 0.311 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Christian Yelich | 0.321 331pa | 0.224 142pa ▼ | 0.373 50pa ★ | 0.243 38pa | 0.535 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Andrew Vaughn | 0.455 211pa ★ | 0.232 85pa ▼ | 0.326 45pa | 0.144 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Cooper Pratt | 0.339 200pa | 0.380 72pa ★ | 0.244 44pa ▼ | 0.381 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.143 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Luis Lara | 0.293 146pa ★ | 0.223 47pa | 0.222 26pa ▼ | 0.202 20pa Tiny Sample | 0.303 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Garrett Mitchell | 0.342 344pa | 0.330 130pa ★ | 0.246 76pa ▼ | 0.315 48pa | 0.098 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | 0.340 283pa ★ | 0.273 110pa | 0.230 32pa ▼ | 0.296 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 11pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Roughly even. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
San Diego Padres bullpen
Season: Good · rank 8 · 3.37 ERA · 3.61 FIP · 1.23 WHIP
Last 7 days: 8.1 IP · 6.48 ERA · 6 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Mason Miller · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Adrian Morejon · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jason Adam · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bradgley Rodriguez · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jeremiah Estrada · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Adrian Morejon · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Mason Miller · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Bradgley Rodriguez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Jason Adam · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Yuki Matsui · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen
Season: Good · rank 4 · 2.97 ERA · 3.56 FIP · 1.18 WHIP
Last 7 days: 3.2 IP · 9.82 ERA · 4 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Trevor Megill · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Abner Uribe · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Chad Patrick · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Aaron Ashby · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Antonio Senzatela · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Trevor Megill · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Abner Uribe · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Aaron Ashby · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs LHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 9 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs LHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 9 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#4 Chad Patrick · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 10 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 10 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Antonio Senzatela · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 112 PA · 11 K / 12 BB / 1 HR · medium sample
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs RHP · 13/13 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 112 PA · 11 K / 12 BB / 1 HR · medium sample
Top San Diego Padres Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Milwaukee Brewers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Robbie Ray
(San Diego Padres)
- Control concerns (4.6 BB/9)
- FIP (4.74) above ERA — may regress upward
Jacob Misiorowski
(Milwaukee Brewers)
- Elite ERA (1.80) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (13.0 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (13.0 K/9)
- FIP (2.22) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/24)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Chicago White Sox starter Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA) — Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick (2.56 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
Chicago White Sox 4.06 ·
Cleveland Guardians 3.87 ·
total 7.93 ·
Cleveland Guardians differential -0.19.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean -1.36 · previous GE1 -5.36 · corrected GE1 -0.75
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.91 / Cleveland Guardians 3.57
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.101 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.090 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0674; combined factor 1.0674.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0009; combined factor 0.9991.
Chicago White Sox starter: 8.0 BF · opener · single current season start
Cleveland Guardians starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 7 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.91 / Cleveland Guardians 3.57
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.101 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.090 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0674; combined factor 1.0674.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0009; combined factor 0.9991.
Chicago White Sox starter: 8.0 BF · opener · single current season start
Cleveland Guardians starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 7 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Chicago White Sox · right = Cleveland Guardians · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Chicago White Sox lineup
Confirmed: Strong (119.2) · season 112.3 · recent 130.6
Order: top 144.6 · middle 121.2 · bottom 70.9
Handedness: 5 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.770 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1384 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 8.9 quality points
Andrew Benintendi absent · reason unknown
Tommy Pham in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 89.9
Vs starter: 84 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Cleveland Guardians lineup
Confirmed: Below average (96.8) · season 89.2 · recent 121.7
Order: top 110.4 · middle 92.7 · bottom 87.6
Handedness: 4 L / 3 R / 4 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.710 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1640 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.9 quality points
Rhys Hoskins absent · reason unknown
Kyle Manzardo absent · reason unknown
Jo Adell in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 100.8
Nathaniel Lowe in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 55.2
Vs starter: 23 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Building Sample
1.29ERA
0.96WHIP
13.20K/9
5.10BB/9
0.00HR/9
28.0IP
1.94FIP
⚠ 28.0 IP gives usable pitcher context — but only 1 GS means starter-role performance is less certain.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
2.56ERA
1.06WHIP
9.30K/9
2.40BB/9
0.80HR/9
186.3IP
3.12FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Hagen Smith vs Cleveland Guardians
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Parker Messick vs Chicago White Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Chicago White Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Parker Messick
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Meidroth | 0.356 415pa ★ | 0.310 151pa | 0.345 92pa | 0.251 40pa ▼ | 0.389 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Randal Grichuk | 0.353 167pa | 0.373 76pa ★ | 0.312 52pa ▼ | 0.239 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Tristan Peters | 0.351 316pa | 0.389 90pa ★ | 0.252 64pa | 0.241 54pa ▼ | 0.353 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | 0.367 502pa | 0.344 157pa | 0.375 57pa ★ | 0.314 61pa ▼ | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | 0.374 310pa | 0.263 165pa ▼ | 0.380 57pa | 0.433 48pa ★ | 0.170 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Tommy Pham | 0.205 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.086 8pa Tiny Sample | 0.230 6pa Tiny Sample | 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 5 | Sam Antonacci | 0.382 368pa ★ | 0.256 113pa | 0.232 62pa ▼ | 0.378 35pa | 0.354 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Brenton Doyle | 0.327 143pa ★ | 0.205 73pa ▼ | 0.306 38pa | 0.420 12pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Kyle Teel | 0.352 101pa ★ | 0.268 45pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.245 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.395 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Braden Montgomery | 0.379 200pa ★ | 0.245 65pa | 0.189 71pa | 0.267 33pa | 0.117 30pa ▼ |
| 9 | Colson Montgomery | 0.317 429pa | 0.225 146pa ▼ | 0.293 69pa | 0.269 41pa | 0.360 26pa ★ |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Cleveland Guardians Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Hagen Smith
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | 0.359 477pa | 0.261 130pa | 0.261 68pa ▼ | 0.382 34pa ★ | 0.209 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | José Ramírez | 0.335 304pa | 0.277 122pa | 0.240 116pa ▼ | 0.407 49pa ★ | 0.290 32pa |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | 0.410 370pa ★ | 0.401 115pa | 0.206 73pa ▼ | 0.290 54pa | 0.241 29pa |
| 4 | Jo Adell | 0.310 430pa | 0.263 173pa ▼ | 0.309 79pa | 0.522 46pa ★ | 0.168 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Angel Martínez | 0.349 256pa | 0.343 75pa | 0.253 84pa | 0.521 31pa ★ | 0.182 33pa ▼ |
| 6 | Nathaniel Lowe | 0.336 347pa | 0.369 58pa ★ | 0.266 54pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.303 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | David Fry | 0.335 162pa ★ | 0.223 38pa ▼ | 0.257 28pa | 0.204 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.230 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | 0.350 348pa ★ | 0.259 120pa ▼ | 0.319 57pa | 0.353 31pa | 0.210 20pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | 0.289 219pa | 0.310 63pa ★ | 0.189 68pa ▼ | 0.296 47pa | 0.135 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | 0.335 177pa ★ | 0.207 61pa ▼ | 0.302 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.307 14pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | 0.341 388pa ★ | 0.302 94pa | 0.252 123pa | 0.247 41pa ▼ | 0.108 23pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen clear advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Chicago White Sox bullpen
Season: Weak · rank 20 · 3.61 ERA · 4.08 FIP · 1.27 WHIP
Last 7 days: 12.1 IP · 5.11 ERA · 7 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Grant Taylor · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Hudson · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Sean Newcomb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Trevor Richards · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Jordan Hicks · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Grant Taylor · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#2 Bryan Hudson · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.710 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.710 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Sean Newcomb · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.710 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 36 PA · 7 K / 6 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.710 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 36 PA · 7 K / 6 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Jordan Hicks · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 9 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 9 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Jordan Leasure · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.722 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Cleveland Guardians bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.25 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 1.20 WHIP
Last 7 days: 8.0 IP · 4.50 ERA · 4 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Cade Smith · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Hunter Gaddis · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Sabrowski · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Colin Holderman · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Matt Festa · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Cade Smith · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 46 PA · 14 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 46 PA · 14 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Erik Sabrowski · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 8 K / 8 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 8 K / 8 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Hunter Gaddis · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Tim Herrin · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#5 Matt Festa · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Chicago White Sox Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Cleveland Guardians Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Hagen Smith
(Chicago White Sox)
- Elite ERA (1.29) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (13.2 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (13.2 K/9)
- Excellent HR suppression (0.0 HR/9)
- Control concerns (5.1 BB/9)
- FIP (1.94) confirms elite results
Parker Messick
(Cleveland Guardians)
- Elite ERA (2.56) — strong run prevention
- Above-average K rate (9.3 K/9)
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/22)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
- Starter sample is small; pitcher edge is partially discounted.
- Game Edge V1 confidence capped by degraded core participant inputs.
Slight Los Angeles Dodgers AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Atlanta Braves starter Dylan Dodd (2.54 ERA) — Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA) — Overall: Slight Los Angeles Dodgers Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
Atlanta Braves 3.70 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers 5.10 ·
total 8.80 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers differential +1.40.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +2.16 · previous GE1 +12.33 · corrected GE1 +5.60
Previous GE1 runs: Atlanta Braves 3.01 / Los Angeles Dodgers 6.10
Relative lineup movement: Atlanta Braves -0.030 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers +0.053 runs.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0163; combined factor 0.9837.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0777; combined factor 1.0777.
Atlanta Braves starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · neutral starter fallback
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Atlanta Braves 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Atlanta Braves 3.01 / Los Angeles Dodgers 6.10
Relative lineup movement: Atlanta Braves -0.030 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers +0.053 runs.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0163; combined factor 0.9837.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0777; combined factor 1.0777.
Atlanta Braves starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · neutral starter fallback
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Atlanta Braves 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Atlanta Braves · right = Los Angeles Dodgers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Atlanta Braves lineup
Confirmed: Weak (86.6) · season 84.7 · recent 75.9
Order: top 103.1 · middle 119.0 · bottom 40.9
Handedness: 3 L / 6 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.697 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/10 hitters · 1793 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Significantly weakened · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -39.1 quality points
Mike Yastrzemski absent · reason unknown
Dominic Smith absent · reason unknown
Sean Murphy in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 43.4
Lane Thomas in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 85.1
Vs starter: 63 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Los Angeles Dodgers lineup
Confirmed: Strong (118.9) · season 118.6 · recent 117.1
Order: top 146.3 · middle 89.1 · bottom 129.1
Handedness: 4 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.773 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 10/10 hitters · 1462 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 32.1 quality points
Miguel Rojas absent · reason unknown
Alex Freeland absent · reason unknown
Enrique Hernández in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 89.5
Tommy Edman in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 99.6
Vs starter: 5 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Building Sample
2.54ERA
0.91WHIP
9.60K/9
2.50BB/9
1.30HR/9
49.7IP
3.88FIP
⚠ 49.7 IP gives usable pitcher context — but only 0 GS means starter-role performance is less certain.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
2.72ERA
0.96WHIP
10.60K/9
1.50BB/9
0.80HR/9
158.7IP
2.56FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Dylan Dodd vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Tarik Skubal vs Atlanta Braves
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Atlanta Braves Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Tarik Skubal
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | 0.388 358pa ★ | 0.306 150pa | 0.311 86pa | 0.258 60pa ▼ | 0.319 34pa |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0.331 326pa | 0.354 92pa ★ | 0.309 48pa ▼ | 0.489 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.257 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Ozzie Albies | 0.320 370pa ★ | 0.313 113pa | 0.262 131pa | 0.266 82pa | 0.225 47pa ▼ |
| 4 | Matt Olson | 0.352 448pa | 0.331 164pa | 0.412 72pa ★ | 0.255 64pa ▼ | 0.248 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Michael Harris II | 0.349 332pa | 0.361 175pa ★ | 0.321 87pa | 0.262 63pa ▼ | 0.353 31pa |
| 6 | Mauricio Dubón | 0.317 400pa | 0.318 148pa | 0.259 80pa ▼ | 0.353 35pa ★ | 0.261 26pa |
| 7 | Austin Riley | 0.323 412pa ★ | 0.277 161pa | 0.249 62pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ | 0.281 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Sean Murphy | 0.281 86pa ★ ▼ | 0.330 20pa Tiny Sample | 0.251 11pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 10pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Lane Thomas | 0.334 265pa | 0.263 74pa | 0.340 39pa ★ | 0.228 32pa ▼ | 0.063 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Ha-Seong Kim | 0.186 104pa ★ ▼ | 0.175 29pa | 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample | 0.126 7pa Tiny Sample | 0.314 5pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Dylan Dodd
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | 0.366 379pa ★ | 0.299 109pa | 0.280 61pa | 0.252 31pa ▼ | 0.305 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 0.396 328pa ★ | 0.344 141pa | 0.377 88pa | 0.233 62pa ▼ | 0.347 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Will Smith | 0.348 175pa ★ | 0.242 88pa ▼ | 0.458 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.309 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | 0.374 424pa | 0.260 145pa ▼ | 0.273 77pa | 0.394 62pa ★ | 0.377 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Enrique Hernández | 0.329 58pa ★ | 0.123 30pa ▼ | 0.257 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.474 8pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernández | 0.366 308pa ★ | 0.296 128pa | 0.360 66pa | 0.236 32pa ▼ | 0.213 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | 0.342 403pa ★ | 0.314 112pa | 0.242 95pa ▼ | 0.302 47pa | 0.270 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Andy Pages | 0.341 392pa | 0.360 152pa | 0.290 49pa ▼ | 0.363 36pa ★ | 0.281 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Max Muncy | 0.440 308pa ★ | 0.285 117pa | 0.291 98pa | 0.305 61pa | 0.249 36pa ▼ |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | 0.303 206pa | 0.356 57pa ★ | 0.285 47pa ▼ | 0.132 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.565 13pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen clear advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Atlanta Braves bullpen
Season: Good · rank 6 · 3.37 ERA · 3.99 FIP · 1.17 WHIP
Last 7 days: 8.1 IP · 4.32 ERA · 4 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Raisel Iglesias · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Robert Suarez · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Didier Fuentes · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Dylan Dodd · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Victor Mederos · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Raisel Iglesias · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 76 PA · 18 K / 9 BB / 2 HR · medium sample
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 76 PA · 18 K / 9 BB / 2 HR · medium sample
#2 Didier Fuentes · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 1 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 1 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Robert Suarez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 55 PA · 12 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.790 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 55 PA · 12 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#4 Dylan Lee · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 43 PA · 9 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 43 PA · 9 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Dylan Dodd · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 5 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 5 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.55 ERA · 3.63 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 13.0 IP · 1.39 ERA · 2 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Tanner Scott · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Edwin Díaz · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Alex Vesia · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Will Klein · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jack Dreyer · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Tanner Scott · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.697 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 67 PA · 11 K / 9 BB / 4 HR · small sample
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.697 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 67 PA · 11 K / 9 BB / 4 HR · small sample
#2 Alex Vesia · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.697 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.697 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#3 Will Klein · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Edgardo Henriquez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Edwin Díaz · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 51 PA · 22 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.730 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 51 PA · 22 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
Top Atlanta Braves Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Los Angeles Dodgers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Dylan Dodd
(Atlanta Braves)
- Elite ERA (2.54) — strong run prevention
- Above-average K rate (9.6 K/9)
- FIP (3.88) above ERA — may regress upward
Tarik Skubal
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
- Elite ERA (2.72) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (10.6 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (10.6 K/9)
- Sharp control (1.5 BB/9)
- FIP (2.56) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
- One starter has a tiny MLB sample; pitcher edge reduced.
- Game Edge V1 confidence capped by degraded core participant inputs.
Slight Tampa Bay Rays AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole (3.61 ERA) — Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA) — Overall: Slight Tampa Bay Rays Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
New York Yankees 3.30 ·
Tampa Bay Rays 4.64 ·
total 7.94 ·
Tampa Bay Rays differential +1.33.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +3.31 · previous GE1 +5.76 · corrected GE1 +5.33
Previous GE1 runs: New York Yankees 3.04 / Tampa Bay Rays 4.48
Relative lineup movement: New York Yankees +0.078 runs; Tampa Bay Rays +0.154 runs.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0409; combined factor 1.0409.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0789; combined factor 1.0789.
New York Yankees starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: New York Yankees 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Tampa Bay Rays 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: New York Yankees 3.04 / Tampa Bay Rays 4.48
Relative lineup movement: New York Yankees +0.078 runs; Tampa Bay Rays +0.154 runs.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0409; combined factor 1.0409.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0789; combined factor 1.0789.
New York Yankees starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: New York Yankees 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Tampa Bay Rays 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = New York Yankees · right = Tampa Bay Rays · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
New York Yankees lineup
Confirmed: Below average (96.1) · season 93.1 · recent 101.2
Order: top 113.0 · middle 91.1 · bottom 83.9
Handedness: 8 L / 2 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.754 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3000 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 37.6 quality points
Paul Goldschmidt absent · reason unknown
Amed Rosario absent · reason unknown
José Caballero absent · reason unknown
Luis García Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 74.8
George Lombard Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 94.7
Giancarlo Stanton in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 97.0
Vs starter: 103 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Tampa Bay Rays lineup
Confirmed: Average (100.3) · season 102.0 · recent 87.7
Order: top 105.5 · middle 108.2 · bottom 81.6
Handedness: 5 L / 4 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.780 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3483 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 138.1 quality points
Cedric Mullins absent · reason unknown
Nick Fortes absent · reason unknown
Liam Hicks in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 118.5
Victor Mesa Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 137.2
Vs starter: 117 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.61ERA
1.10WHIP
9.30K/9
1.80BB/9
1.60HR/9
127.0IP
3.98FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
2.67ERA
0.91WHIP
9.10K/9
1.70BB/9
0.70HR/9
172.0IP
2.87FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Gerrit Cole vs Tampa Bay Rays
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Drew Rasmussen vs New York Yankees
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
New York Yankees Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Drew Rasmussen
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | 0.435 372pa ★ | 0.338 164pa | 0.362 88pa | 0.311 71pa | 0.229 34pa ▼ |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 0.343 377pa | 0.361 99pa ★ | 0.239 65pa | 0.305 40pa | 0.200 37pa ▼ |
| 3 | Luis García Jr. | 0.366 259pa | 0.357 119pa | 0.295 117pa | 0.392 61pa ★ | 0.075 40pa ▼ |
| 4 | Spencer Jones | 0.357 174pa | 0.366 61pa ★ | 0.300 45pa | 0.187 37pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. | 0.322 132pa ★ | 0.281 42pa ▼ | 0.105 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.370 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 0.322 307pa | 0.351 116pa ★ | 0.320 62pa | 0.216 69pa ▼ | 0.087 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Trent Grisham | 0.306 346pa | 0.347 84pa ★ | 0.296 59pa | 0.255 29pa ▼ | 0.071 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Austin Wells | 0.353 235pa ★ | 0.161 84pa ▼ | 0.179 53pa | 0.234 25pa | 0.131 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.260 56pa ▼ | 0.396 33pa ★ | 0.303 25pa | 0.388 13pa Tiny Sample | 1.002 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Ryan McMahon | 0.328 220pa ★ | 0.142 85pa ▼ | 0.258 42pa | 0.241 44pa | 0.316 19pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Tampa Bay Rays Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Gerrit Cole
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | 0.320 463pa | 0.451 154pa ★ | 0.350 70pa | 0.303 66pa ▼ | 0.287 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 0.347 467pa ★ | 0.336 123pa | 0.334 77pa | 0.339 51pa | 0.241 30pa ▼ |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 0.413 386pa | 0.323 206pa | 0.290 88pa ▼ | 0.280 61pa | 0.484 26pa ★ |
| 3 | Ben Williamson | 0.344 204pa ★ | 0.211 76pa | 0.173 36pa ▼ | 0.296 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.376 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | 0.351 373pa | 0.292 107pa ▼ | 0.333 71pa | 0.400 37pa ★ | 0.343 27pa |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | 0.316 464pa | 0.339 104pa ★ | 0.192 64pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.231 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0.333 185pa | 0.316 61pa | 0.467 28pa ★ | 0.247 25pa ▼ | 0.189 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Jonny DeLuca | 0.327 252pa ★ | 0.264 110pa | 0.239 54pa ▼ | 0.253 28pa | 0.293 6pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Richie Palacios | 0.337 279pa | 0.279 64pa | 0.376 43pa ★ | 0.133 45pa ▼ | 0.126 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | 0.311 324pa ★ | 0.182 57pa | 0.146 60pa ▼ | 0.196 42pa | 0.246 15pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Away bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
New York Yankees bullpen
Season: Good · rank 5 · 3.12 ERA · 3.95 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
David Bednar · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Ryan Yarbrough · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Fernando Cruz · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
John Schreiber · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tim Hill · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 David Bednar · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Fernando Cruz · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Brent Headrick · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · small sample
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#4 John Schreiber · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Ryan Yarbrough · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 4 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 4 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · small sample
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen
Season: Average · rank 12 · 3.72 ERA · 4.31 FIP · 1.16 WHIP
Last 7 days: 11.1 IP · 2.38 ERA · 4 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Bryan Baker · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tyler Wells · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Kevin Kelly · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Cole Sulser · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Cleavinger · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Bryan Baker · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 49 PA · 9 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 49 PA · 9 K / 7 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Tyler Wells · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 8 K / 1 BB / 3 HR · small sample
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 8 K / 1 BB / 3 HR · small sample
#3 Kevin Kelly · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Cole Sulser · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 3 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.754 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 3 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Garrett Cleavinger · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.716 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 9 K / 2 BB / 3 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.716 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 9 K / 2 BB / 3 HR · small sample
Top New York Yankees Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Tampa Bay Rays Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Gerrit Cole
(New York Yankees)
- Above-average K rate (9.3 K/9)
- Sharp control (1.8 BB/9)
Drew Rasmussen
(Tampa Bay Rays)
- Elite ERA (2.67) — strong run prevention
- Above-average K rate (9.1 K/9)
- Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
- FIP (2.87) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages.
Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order.
Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.