⚾ Daily Matchup Lab
Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.
Sun, Oct 4, 2026Matchups
2 games
Slight Los Angeles Dodgers AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Atlanta Braves starter Ray Kerr (1.47 ERA) — Los Angeles Dodgers starter Blake Snell (1.90 ERA) — Overall: Slight Los Angeles Dodgers Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
Atlanta Braves 2.92 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.81 ·
total 7.73 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers differential +1.89.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +2.85 · previous GE1 +12.47 · corrected GE1 +7.55
Previous GE1 runs: Atlanta Braves 2.63 / Los Angeles Dodgers 5.74
Relative lineup movement: Atlanta Braves -0.024 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers +0.016 runs.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0124; combined factor 0.9876.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0800; combined factor 1.0800.
Atlanta Braves starter: 11.0 BF · short starter · single current season start
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Atlanta Braves 7 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Atlanta Braves 2.63 / Los Angeles Dodgers 5.74
Relative lineup movement: Atlanta Braves -0.024 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers +0.016 runs.
Atlanta Braves offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0124; combined factor 0.9876.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0800; combined factor 1.0800.
Atlanta Braves starter: 11.0 BF · short starter · single current season start
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Atlanta Braves 7 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Atlanta Braves · right = Los Angeles Dodgers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Atlanta Braves lineup
Confirmed: Below average (94.1) · season 97.2 · recent 73.9
Order: top 121.2 · middle 97.7 · bottom 75.5
Handedness: 5 L / 6 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.699 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 12/12 hitters · 1778 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 15.4 quality points
Dominic Smith absent · reason unknown
Rowdy Tellez in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 100.7
Vs starter: 108 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Los Angeles Dodgers lineup
Confirmed: Strong (118.0) · season 120.2 · recent 107.8
Order: top 133.5 · middle 93.2 · bottom 123.0
Handedness: 5 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.799 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1580 combined PA · well above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 37.7 quality points
Alex Freeland absent · reason unknown
Tommy Edman in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 102.4
Vs starter: 12 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Small Sample
1.47ERA
0.60WHIP
5.40K/9
1.00BB/9
1.00HR/9
18.3IP
4.02FIP
⚠ Just 18.3 IP — the stats are real, but partially discounted until there's more evidence.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Building Sample
1.90ERA
1.10WHIP
11.60K/9
3.40BB/9
0.00HR/9
42.7IP
1.77FIP
⚠ 42.7 IP — a growing sample. Getting more reliable, not fully trusted yet.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Ray Kerr vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Blake Snell vs Atlanta Braves
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Atlanta Braves Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Blake Snell
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | 0.388 358pa ★ | 0.306 150pa | 0.311 86pa | 0.258 60pa ▼ | 0.319 34pa |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0.331 326pa | 0.354 92pa ★ | 0.309 48pa ▼ | 0.489 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.257 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Matt Olson | 0.352 448pa | 0.331 164pa | 0.412 72pa ★ | 0.255 64pa ▼ | 0.248 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Ozzie Albies | 0.320 370pa ★ | 0.313 113pa | 0.262 131pa | 0.266 82pa | 0.225 47pa ▼ |
| 5 | Michael Harris II | 0.349 332pa | 0.361 175pa ★ | 0.321 87pa | 0.262 63pa ▼ | 0.353 31pa |
| 6 | Mauricio Dubón | 0.317 400pa | 0.318 148pa | 0.259 80pa ▼ | 0.353 35pa ★ | 0.261 26pa |
| 7 | Rowdy Tellez | 0.584 12pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample | 0.392 4pa Tiny Sample | — | — |
| 7 | Sean Murphy | 0.281 86pa ★ ▼ | 0.330 20pa Tiny Sample | 0.251 11pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 10pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Brewer Hicklen | 0.288 39pa ★ ▼ | 0.382 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.355 6pa Tiny Sample | — | 0.172 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Austin Riley | 0.323 412pa ★ | 0.277 161pa | 0.249 62pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ | 0.281 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Mike Yastrzemski | 0.341 258pa | 0.219 87pa ▼ | 0.266 56pa | 0.414 34pa ★ | 0.147 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Lane Thomas | 0.334 265pa | 0.263 74pa | 0.340 39pa ★ | 0.228 32pa ▼ | 0.063 11pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Ray Kerr
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | 0.366 379pa ★ | 0.299 109pa | 0.280 61pa | 0.252 31pa ▼ | 0.305 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 0.396 328pa ★ | 0.344 141pa | 0.377 88pa | 0.233 62pa ▼ | 0.347 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Will Smith | 0.348 175pa ★ | 0.242 88pa ▼ | 0.458 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.309 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | 0.374 424pa | 0.260 145pa ▼ | 0.273 77pa | 0.394 62pa ★ | 0.377 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernández | 0.366 308pa ★ | 0.296 128pa | 0.360 66pa | 0.236 32pa ▼ | 0.213 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | 0.342 403pa ★ | 0.314 112pa | 0.242 95pa ▼ | 0.302 47pa | 0.270 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Andy Pages | 0.341 392pa | 0.360 152pa | 0.290 49pa ▼ | 0.363 36pa ★ | 0.281 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Max Muncy | 0.440 308pa ★ | 0.285 117pa | 0.291 98pa | 0.305 61pa | 0.249 36pa ▼ |
| 8 | Miguel Rojas | 0.365 182pa ★ | 0.265 66pa | 0.163 29pa ▼ | 0.382 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.176 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | 0.303 206pa | 0.356 57pa ★ | 0.285 47pa ▼ | 0.132 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.565 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Josue De Paula | 0.396 39pa ★ ▼ | 0.351 10pa Tiny Sample | 0.316 5pa Tiny Sample | — | 0.484 4pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Roughly even. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Atlanta Braves bullpen
Season: Good · rank 6 · 3.37 ERA · 3.99 FIP · 1.17 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Raisel Iglesias · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Robert Suarez · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Didier Fuentes · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Dylan Dodd · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Victor Mederos · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Raisel Iglesias · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 81 PA · 17 K / 8 BB / 2 HR · medium sample
closer role · 34 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 81 PA · 17 K / 8 BB / 2 HR · medium sample
#2 Didier Fuentes · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 1 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 18 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 1 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Robert Suarez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 53 PA · 11 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 53 PA · 11 K / 2 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#4 Dylan Lee · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.799 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 42 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
setup role · 31 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.799 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 42 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#5 Dylan Dodd · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.799 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.799 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen
Season: Good · rank 4 · 3.55 ERA · 3.63 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Tanner Scott · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Edwin Díaz · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Alex Vesia · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Will Klein · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jack Dreyer · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Tanner Scott · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.699 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 71 PA · 12 K / 9 BB / 4 HR · small sample
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.699 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 71 PA · 12 K / 9 BB / 4 HR · small sample
#2 Alex Vesia · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.699 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 41 PA · 6 K / 6 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.699 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 41 PA · 6 K / 6 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#3 Will Klein · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 6 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Edgardo Henriquez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Edwin Díaz · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 60 PA · 28 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.750 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 60 PA · 28 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
Top Atlanta Braves Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Los Angeles Dodgers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Ray Kerr
(Atlanta Braves)
- Elite ERA (1.47) — strong run prevention
- Sharp control (1.0 BB/9)
- FIP (4.02) above ERA — may regress upward
Blake Snell
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
- Elite ERA (1.90) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (11.6 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.6 K/9)
- Excellent HR suppression (0.0 HR/9)
- FIP (1.77) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/23)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
- Starter sample is small; pitcher edge is partially discounted.
- Game Edge V1 confidence capped by degraded core participant inputs.
Slight Milwaukee Brewers AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
San Diego Padres starter Michael King (3.21 ERA) — Milwaukee Brewers starter Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA) — Overall: Slight Milwaukee Brewers Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1:
San Diego Padres 3.89 ·
Milwaukee Brewers 4.52 ·
total 8.41 ·
Milwaukee Brewers differential +0.63.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +3.20 · previous GE1 +5.33 · corrected GE1 +2.53
Previous GE1 runs: San Diego Padres 3.58 / Milwaukee Brewers 4.92
Relative lineup movement: San Diego Padres +0.027 runs; Milwaukee Brewers +0.007 runs.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0097; combined factor 0.9903.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0709; combined factor 1.0709.
San Diego Padres starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: San Diego Padres 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Milwaukee Brewers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: San Diego Padres 3.58 / Milwaukee Brewers 4.92
Relative lineup movement: San Diego Padres +0.027 runs; Milwaukee Brewers +0.007 runs.
San Diego Padres offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0097; combined factor 0.9903.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0709; combined factor 1.0709.
San Diego Padres starter: 25.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: San Diego Padres 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Milwaukee Brewers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = San Diego Padres · right = Milwaukee Brewers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
San Diego Padres lineup
Confirmed: Below average (95.1) · season 93.9 · recent 96.8
Order: top 89.4 · middle 106.8 · bottom 81.0
Handedness: 5 L / 9 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.714 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 14/14 hitters · 3790 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 11.5 quality points
Miguel Andujar absent · reason unknown
Samad Taylor in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 110.6
Vs starter: 19 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Milwaukee Brewers lineup
Confirmed: Above average (108.6) · season 108.1 · recent 98.4
Order: top 151.8 · middle 91.6 · bottom 87.6
Handedness: 6 L / 5 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.774 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 11/11 hitters · 3752 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 0 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.0 quality points
Vs starter: 63 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.21ERA
1.18WHIP
7.70K/9
3.40BB/9
1.00HR/9
185.0IP
4.18FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Above Average
2.47ERA
0.84WHIP
10.10K/9
1.70BB/9
1.30HR/9
98.3IP
3.37FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Michael King vs Milwaukee Brewers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Logan Henderson vs San Diego Padres
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
San Diego Padres Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Logan Henderson
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.373 432pa ★ | 0.352 175pa | 0.350 73pa | 0.335 40pa ▼ | 0.000 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | 0.347 106pa | 0.247 29pa ▼ | 0.463 27pa ★ | 0.155 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.110 8pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Jase Bowen | 0.281 79pa ★ | 0.277 30pa ▼ | 0.195 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.177 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 3pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 0.366 399pa ★ | 0.246 170pa | 0.213 82pa ▼ | 0.274 47pa | 0.197 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Ty France | 0.358 333pa | 0.364 117pa | 0.505 55pa ★ | 0.261 46pa ▼ | 0.388 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | 0.346 387pa ★ | 0.270 128pa | 0.275 97pa | 0.319 73pa | 0.178 40pa ▼ |
| 6 | Samad Taylor | 0.390 121pa ★ | 0.262 40pa ▼ | 0.264 16pa Tiny Sample | 0.139 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.069 10pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Ethan Salas | 0.375 37pa ★ ▼ | 0.121 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Austin Hays | 0.386 65pa ★ | 0.248 44pa ▼ | 0.260 21pa Tiny Sample | 0.296 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Gavin Sheets | 0.379 245pa ★ | 0.310 76pa | 0.264 75pa | 0.243 43pa ▼ | 0.167 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Xander Bogaerts | 0.342 407pa ★ | 0.276 133pa | 0.255 53pa | 0.187 47pa ▼ | 0.129 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Luis Campusano | 0.366 173pa ★ | 0.267 66pa ▼ | 0.359 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.282 28pa | — |
| 8 | Freddy Fermin | 0.290 184pa ★ | 0.283 69pa ▼ | 0.243 21pa Tiny Sample | 0.240 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.352 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | 0.343 283pa ★ | 0.234 79pa | 0.146 61pa ▼ | 0.266 46pa | 0.367 17pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Milwaukee Brewers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Michael King
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | 0.377 357pa | 0.258 153pa ▼ | 0.353 68pa | 0.487 39pa ★ | 0.190 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 0.393 410pa ★ | 0.307 150pa | 0.283 80pa | 0.349 57pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | 0.413 378pa | 0.385 141pa | 0.422 62pa ★ | 0.298 61pa ▼ | 0.311 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | William Contreras | 0.379 417pa ★ | 0.262 162pa ▼ | 0.283 59pa | 0.280 41pa | 0.297 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell | 0.342 344pa | 0.330 130pa ★ | 0.246 76pa ▼ | 0.315 48pa | 0.098 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | 0.321 331pa | 0.224 142pa ▼ | 0.373 50pa ★ | 0.243 38pa | 0.535 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Sal Frelick | 0.286 296pa ★ | 0.197 88pa ▼ | 0.233 34pa | 0.493 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.098 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Cooper Pratt | 0.339 200pa | 0.380 72pa ★ | 0.244 44pa ▼ | 0.381 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.143 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Andrew Vaughn | 0.455 211pa ★ | 0.232 85pa ▼ | 0.326 45pa | 0.144 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | David Hamilton | 0.373 272pa ★ | 0.263 93pa ▼ | 0.275 42pa | 0.111 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.052 17pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | 0.340 283pa ★ | 0.273 110pa | 0.230 32pa ▼ | 0.296 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Gary Sánchez | 0.388 168pa ★ | 0.255 68pa ▼ | 0.286 40pa | 0.365 20pa Tiny Sample | 0.213 10pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
San Diego Padres bullpen
Season: Good · rank 8 · 3.37 ERA · 3.61 FIP · 1.23 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Mason Miller · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Adrian Morejon · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jason Adam · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bradgley Rodriguez · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jeremiah Estrada · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Adrian Morejon · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 27 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 27 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Mason Miller · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 7 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 37 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 7 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Bradgley Rodriguez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Jason Adam · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 7 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 17 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.774 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Changeup, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 7 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Yuki Matsui · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.736 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen
Season: Elite · rank 2 · 2.97 ERA · 3.56 FIP · 1.18 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Trevor Megill · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Abner Uribe · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Chad Patrick · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Aaron Ashby · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Antonio Senzatela · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Trevor Megill · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Abner Uribe · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 7 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Aaron Ashby · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.726 OPS vs LHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 35 PA · 13 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.726 OPS vs LHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 35 PA · 13 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#4 Chad Patrick · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 10 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Antonio Senzatela · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 123 PA · 11 K / 12 BB / 3 HR · medium sample
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.714 OPS vs RHP · 14/14 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 123 PA · 11 K / 12 BB / 3 HR · medium sample
Top San Diego Padres Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Milwaukee Brewers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Michael King
(San Diego Padres)
- No significant outliers in available metrics
Logan Henderson
(Milwaukee Brewers)
- Elite ERA (2.47) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (10.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (10.1 K/9)
- Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/26)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages.
Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order.
Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.