⚾ Daily Matchup Lab
Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.
Mon, Oct 5, 2026Matchups
2 games
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
New York Yankees starter Cam Schlittler (1.95 ERA) — Tampa Bay Rays starter Freddy Peralta (4.42 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
New York Yankees 4.01 ·
Tampa Bay Rays 3.58 ·
total 7.59 ·
Tampa Bay Rays differential -0.42.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean -7.74 · previous GE1 -0.88 · corrected GE1 -1.69
Previous GE1 runs: New York Yankees 3.65 / Tampa Bay Rays 3.44
Relative lineup movement: New York Yankees +0.031 runs; Tampa Bay Rays +0.149 runs.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0131; combined factor 1.0131.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0738; combined factor 1.0738.
New York Yankees starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: New York Yankees 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Tampa Bay Rays 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: New York Yankees 3.65 / Tampa Bay Rays 3.44
Relative lineup movement: New York Yankees +0.031 runs; Tampa Bay Rays +0.149 runs.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0131; combined factor 1.0131.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0738; combined factor 1.0738.
New York Yankees starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: New York Yankees 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Tampa Bay Rays 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = New York Yankees · right = Tampa Bay Rays · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
New York Yankees lineup
Confirmed: Below average (92.7) · season 91.3 · recent 93.4
Order: top 104.8 · middle 88.4 · bottom 81.1
Handedness: 8 L / 3 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.732 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 11/11 hitters · 3440 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 14.2 quality points
Amed Rosario absent · reason unknown
George Lombard Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 92.0
Vs starter: 120 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Tampa Bay Rays lineup
Confirmed: Average (100.1) · season 100.6 · recent 93.1
Order: top 104.8 · middle 104.8 · bottom 85.7
Handedness: 5 L / 4 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.777 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3462 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 123.8 quality points
Cedric Mullins absent · reason unknown
Nick Fortes absent · reason unknown
Liam Hicks in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 113.8
Victor Mesa Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 133.8
Vs starter: 76 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Above Average
1.95ERA
0.92WHIP
11.10K/9
2.30BB/9
0.70HR/9
193.7IP
2.61FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
4.42ERA
1.33WHIP
8.30K/9
3.40BB/9
1.20HR/9
169.0IP
4.33FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Cam Schlittler vs Tampa Bay Rays
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Freddy Peralta vs New York Yankees
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
New York Yankees Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Freddy Peralta
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | 0.435 372pa ★ | 0.338 164pa | 0.362 88pa | 0.311 71pa | 0.229 34pa ▼ |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 0.343 377pa | 0.361 99pa ★ | 0.239 65pa | 0.305 40pa | 0.200 37pa ▼ |
| 3 | Luis García Jr. | 0.366 259pa | 0.357 119pa | 0.295 117pa | 0.392 61pa ★ | 0.075 40pa ▼ |
| 3 | José Caballero | 0.291 271pa | 0.228 120pa | 0.195 42pa ▼ | 0.362 37pa ★ | 0.453 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Spencer Jones | 0.357 174pa | 0.366 61pa ★ | 0.300 45pa | 0.187 37pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. | 0.322 132pa ★ | 0.281 42pa ▼ | 0.105 15pa Tiny Sample | 0.370 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 0.322 307pa | 0.351 116pa ★ | 0.320 62pa | 0.216 69pa ▼ | 0.087 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Trent Grisham | 0.306 346pa | 0.347 84pa ★ | 0.296 59pa | 0.255 29pa ▼ | 0.071 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Austin Wells | 0.353 235pa ★ | 0.161 84pa ▼ | 0.179 53pa | 0.234 25pa | 0.131 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Ryan McMahon | 0.328 220pa ★ | 0.142 85pa ▼ | 0.258 42pa | 0.241 44pa | 0.316 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.327 237pa | 0.348 81pa ★ | 0.306 49pa ▼ | 0.325 32pa | 0.147 6pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Tampa Bay Rays Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Cam Schlittler
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Mateo | 0.291 134pa ★ | 0.235 66pa | 0.116 32pa ▼ | 0.169 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.176 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | 0.320 463pa | 0.451 154pa ★ | 0.350 70pa | 0.303 66pa ▼ | 0.287 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 0.347 467pa ★ | 0.336 123pa | 0.334 77pa | 0.339 51pa | 0.241 30pa ▼ |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 0.413 386pa | 0.323 206pa | 0.290 88pa ▼ | 0.280 61pa | 0.484 26pa ★ |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | 0.351 373pa | 0.292 107pa ▼ | 0.333 71pa | 0.400 37pa ★ | 0.343 27pa |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | 0.316 464pa | 0.339 104pa ★ | 0.192 64pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.231 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0.333 185pa | 0.316 61pa | 0.467 28pa ★ | 0.247 25pa ▼ | 0.189 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Jonny DeLuca | 0.327 252pa ★ | 0.264 110pa | 0.239 54pa ▼ | 0.253 28pa | 0.293 6pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Richie Palacios | 0.337 279pa | 0.279 64pa | 0.376 43pa ★ | 0.133 45pa ▼ | 0.126 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | 0.311 324pa ★ | 0.182 57pa | 0.146 60pa ▼ | 0.196 42pa | 0.246 15pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Away bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
New York Yankees bullpen
Season: Good · rank 5 · 3.12 ERA · 3.95 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
David Bednar · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Ryan Yarbrough · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Fernando Cruz · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
John Schreiber · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tim Hill · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 David Bednar · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Fernando Cruz · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Brent Headrick · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.669 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 5 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.669 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 5 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#4 John Schreiber · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 40 PA · 6 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.777 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 40 PA · 6 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Ryan Yarbrough · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.669 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 46 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.669 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 46 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen
Season: Average · rank 12 · 3.72 ERA · 4.31 FIP · 1.16 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Bryan Baker · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tyler Wells · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Kevin Kelly · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Cole Sulser · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Cleavinger · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Bryan Baker · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 45 PA · 10 K / 5 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 45 PA · 10 K / 5 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Tyler Wells · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Kevin Kelly · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Cole Sulser · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.732 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 6 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Garrett Cleavinger · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.735 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 3 HR · small sample
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.735 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 3 HR · small sample
Top New York Yankees Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Tampa Bay Rays Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Cam Schlittler
(New York Yankees)
- Elite ERA (1.95) — strong run prevention
- Elite strikeout rate (11.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.1 K/9)
- FIP (2.61) confirms elite results
Freddy Peralta
(Tampa Bay Rays)
- No significant outliers in available metrics
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/21)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Chicago White Sox starter Anthony Kay (4.44 ERA) — Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
Chicago White Sox 4.00 ·
Cleveland Guardians 4.14 ·
total 8.13 ·
Cleveland Guardians differential +0.14.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +3.37 · previous GE1 -3.56 · corrected GE1 +0.56
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.73 / Cleveland Guardians 3.84
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.074 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.047 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0191; combined factor 1.0191.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0004; combined factor 1.0004.
Chicago White Sox starter: 20.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Cleveland Guardians starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.73 / Cleveland Guardians 3.84
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.074 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.047 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0191; combined factor 1.0191.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0004; combined factor 1.0004.
Chicago White Sox starter: 20.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Cleveland Guardians starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Chicago White Sox · right = Cleveland Guardians · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Chicago White Sox lineup
Confirmed: Strong (117.5) · season 111.7 · recent 131.1
Order: top 120.5 · middle 130.6 · bottom 85.6
Handedness: 6 L / 4 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.737 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 11/11 hitters · 3663 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 0 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.0 quality points
Vs starter: 96 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Cleveland Guardians lineup
Confirmed: Below average (95.7) · season 92.9 · recent 105.3
Order: top 100.6 · middle 91.3 · bottom 94.3
Handedness: 4 L / 1 R / 4 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.711 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 9/9 hitters · 1362 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 12.7 quality points
Rhys Hoskins absent · reason unknown
David Fry absent · reason unknown
Kyle Manzardo absent · reason unknown
Jo Adell in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 102.7
Nathaniel Lowe in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 61.2
Patrick Bailey in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 85.5
Vs starter: 43 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
4.44ERA
1.37WHIP
7.40K/9
3.20BB/9
1.20HR/9
158.0IP
4.80FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
3.76ERA
1.11WHIP
12.10K/9
3.00BB/9
1.40HR/9
184.3IP
3.52FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Anthony Kay vs Cleveland Guardians
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Gavin Williams vs Chicago White Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Chicago White Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Gavin Williams
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | 0.382 368pa ★ | 0.256 113pa | 0.232 62pa ▼ | 0.378 35pa | 0.354 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | 0.352 101pa ★ | 0.268 45pa ▼ | 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample | 0.245 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.395 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | 0.367 502pa | 0.344 157pa | 0.375 57pa ★ | 0.314 61pa ▼ | 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | 0.374 310pa | 0.263 165pa ▼ | 0.380 57pa | 0.433 48pa ★ | 0.170 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Randal Grichuk | 0.353 167pa | 0.373 76pa ★ | 0.312 52pa ▼ | 0.239 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.346 260pa ★ | 0.298 112pa | 0.198 75pa | 0.349 37pa | 0.171 30pa ▼ |
| 6 | Tommy Pham | 0.205 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.086 8pa Tiny Sample | 0.230 6pa Tiny Sample | 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample | — |
| 6 | Tristan Peters | 0.351 316pa | 0.389 90pa ★ | 0.252 64pa | 0.241 54pa ▼ | 0.353 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Brenton Doyle | 0.327 143pa ★ | 0.205 73pa ▼ | 0.306 38pa | 0.420 12pa Tiny Sample | 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Braden Montgomery | 0.379 200pa ★ | 0.245 65pa | 0.189 71pa | 0.267 33pa | 0.117 30pa ▼ |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth | 0.356 415pa ★ | 0.310 151pa | 0.345 92pa | 0.251 40pa ▼ | 0.389 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Colson Montgomery | 0.317 429pa | 0.225 146pa ▼ | 0.293 69pa | 0.269 41pa | 0.360 26pa ★ |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Cleveland Guardians Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Anthony Kay
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | 0.359 477pa | 0.261 130pa | 0.261 68pa ▼ | 0.382 34pa ★ | 0.209 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | José Ramírez | 0.335 304pa | 0.277 122pa | 0.240 116pa ▼ | 0.407 49pa ★ | 0.290 32pa |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | 0.410 370pa ★ | 0.401 115pa | 0.206 73pa ▼ | 0.290 54pa | 0.241 29pa |
| 4 | Jo Adell | 0.310 430pa | 0.263 173pa ▼ | 0.309 79pa | 0.522 46pa ★ | 0.168 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | 0.336 347pa | 0.369 58pa ★ | 0.266 54pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.303 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Angel Martínez | 0.349 256pa | 0.343 75pa | 0.253 84pa | 0.521 31pa ★ | 0.182 33pa ▼ |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | 0.350 348pa ★ | 0.259 120pa ▼ | 0.319 57pa | 0.353 31pa | 0.210 20pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | 0.289 219pa | 0.310 63pa ★ | 0.189 68pa ▼ | 0.296 47pa | 0.135 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | 0.341 388pa ★ | 0.302 94pa | 0.252 123pa | 0.247 41pa ▼ | 0.108 23pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Chicago White Sox bullpen
Season: Average · rank 20 · 3.61 ERA · 4.08 FIP · 1.27 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Grant Taylor · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Hudson · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Sean Newcomb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Trevor Richards · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Jordan Hicks · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Grant Taylor · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 5 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#2 Bryan Hudson · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.711 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.711 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 5 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Sean Newcomb · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.711 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 6 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.711 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 6 K / 5 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Jordan Hicks · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 8 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 8 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Jordan Leasure · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.728 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Cleveland Guardians bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.25 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 1.20 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Cade Smith · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Hunter Gaddis · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Sabrowski · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Colin Holderman · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Matt Festa · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Cade Smith · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 48 PA · 13 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 48 PA · 13 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Erik Sabrowski · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 9 K / 8 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 9 K / 8 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Hunter Gaddis · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 36 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 36 PA · 10 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Tim Herrin · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.761 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#5 Matt Festa · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Chicago White Sox Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Cleveland Guardians Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Anthony Kay
(Chicago White Sox)
- No significant outliers in available metrics
Gavin Williams
(Cleveland Guardians)
- Elite strikeout rate (12.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (12.1 K/9)
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/21)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages.
Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order.
Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.