⚾ Daily Matchup Lab

Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.

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Thu, Oct 8, 2026
All Games (2) ★ Focus (0) Lineup Edge Pitcher Edge Balanced Low Confidence

Matchups

2 games
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
7:00 PM ET · Guaranteed Rate Field
Parker Messick vs Hagen Smith
Evenly matched tonight
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick (2.56 ERA) — Chicago White Sox starter Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1: Cleveland Guardians 3.44 · Chicago White Sox 3.61 · total 7.05 · Chicago White Sox differential +0.16.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +1.36 · previous GE1 +5.08 · corrected GE1 +0.65
Previous GE1 runs: Cleveland Guardians 2.91 / Chicago White Sox 4.18
Relative lineup movement: Cleveland Guardians +0.068 runs; Chicago White Sox +0.031 runs.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0246; combined factor 0.9754.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0501; combined factor 1.0501.
Cleveland Guardians starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Chicago White Sox starter: 8.0 BF · opener · single current season start
Bullpen exposure: Cleveland Guardians 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Chicago White Sox 7 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: starter workload fallback, fielding defense metric.
Log in to track picks
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Overall edge indicator — left = Cleveland Guardians · right = Chicago White Sox · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup: Confirmed
Home Lineup: Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup

Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.

Cleveland Guardians lineup
Confirmed: Weak (89.4) · season 81.9 · recent 116.0
Order: top 103.4 · middle 80.4 · bottom 86.6
Handedness: 5 L / 2 R / 5 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.689 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 12/12 hitters · 1584 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Somewhat weakened · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -15.0 quality points
Rhys Hoskins absent · reason unknown
David Fry absent · reason unknown
Kyle Manzardo absent · reason unknown
Jo Adell in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 108.3
Nathaniel Lowe in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 68.7
Petey Halpin in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 43.3
Vs starter: 23 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Chicago White Sox lineup
Confirmed: Strong (113.0) · season 110.5 · recent 112.1
Order: top 131.9 · middle 112.2 · bottom 80.3
Handedness: 6 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.756 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 12/12 hitters · 1432 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Near normal · 0 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 0.0 quality points
Vs starter: 86 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Parker Messick
Cleveland Guardians · LHP · 32 GS
Above Average
2.56ERA
1.06WHIP
9.30K/9
2.40BB/9
0.80HR/9
186.3IP
3.12FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Hagen Smith
Chicago White Sox · LHP · 1 GS
Building Sample
1.29ERA
0.96WHIP
13.20K/9
5.10BB/9
0.00HR/9
28.0IP
1.94FIP
⚠ 28.0 IP gives usable pitcher context — but only 1 GS means starter-role performance is less certain.
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup

What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.

Parker Messick vs Chicago White Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Hagen Smith vs Cleveland Guardians
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
  • No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
  • The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Cleveland Guardians Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Hagen Smith )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Steven Kwan 0.359 477pa 0.261 130pa 0.261 68pa ▼ 0.382 34pa ★ 0.209 21pa Tiny Sample
2 José Ramírez 0.335 304pa 0.277 122pa 0.240 116pa ▼ 0.407 49pa ★ 0.290 32pa
3 Chase DeLauter 0.410 370pa ★ 0.401 115pa 0.206 73pa ▼ 0.290 54pa 0.241 29pa
4 Jo Adell 0.310 430pa 0.263 173pa ▼ 0.309 79pa 0.522 46pa ★ 0.168 19pa Tiny Sample
5 Nathaniel Lowe 0.336 347pa 0.369 58pa ★ 0.266 54pa ▼ 0.283 38pa 0.303 16pa Tiny Sample
6 Petey Halpin 0.322 138pa ★ 0.177 42pa 0.139 35pa ▼ 0.473 17pa Tiny Sample 0.339 6pa Tiny Sample
6 Angel Martínez 0.349 256pa 0.343 75pa 0.253 84pa 0.521 31pa ★ 0.182 33pa ▼
7 Angel Genao 0.298 97pa ★ ▼ 0.249 23pa Tiny Sample 0.185 18pa Tiny Sample 0.239 11pa Tiny Sample 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample
7 Travis Bazzana 0.350 348pa ★ 0.259 120pa ▼ 0.319 57pa 0.353 31pa 0.210 20pa Tiny Sample
8 Patrick Bailey 0.289 219pa 0.310 63pa ★ 0.189 68pa ▼ 0.296 47pa 0.135 13pa Tiny Sample
8 Austin Hedges 0.335 177pa ★ 0.207 61pa ▼ 0.302 22pa Tiny Sample 0.307 14pa Tiny Sample —
9 Brayan Rocchio 0.341 388pa ★ 0.302 94pa 0.252 123pa 0.247 41pa ▼ 0.108 23pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Chicago White Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Parker Messick )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Chase Meidroth 0.356 415pa ★ 0.310 151pa 0.345 92pa 0.251 40pa ▼ 0.389 24pa Tiny Sample
2 Randal Grichuk 0.353 167pa 0.373 76pa ★ 0.312 52pa ▼ 0.239 17pa Tiny Sample 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample
2 Tristan Peters 0.351 316pa 0.389 90pa ★ 0.252 64pa 0.241 54pa ▼ 0.353 22pa Tiny Sample
3 Miguel Vargas 0.367 502pa 0.344 157pa 0.375 57pa ★ 0.314 61pa ▼ 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample
4 Munetaka Murakami 0.374 310pa 0.263 165pa ▼ 0.380 57pa 0.433 48pa ★ 0.170 16pa Tiny Sample
5 Sam Antonacci 0.382 368pa ★ 0.256 113pa 0.232 62pa ▼ 0.378 35pa 0.354 18pa Tiny Sample
5 Tommy Pham 0.205 22pa Tiny Sample 0.086 8pa Tiny Sample 0.230 6pa Tiny Sample 0.508 4pa Tiny Sample —
6 Andrew Benintendi 0.346 260pa ★ 0.298 112pa 0.198 75pa 0.349 37pa 0.171 30pa ▼
6 Brenton Doyle 0.327 143pa ★ 0.205 73pa ▼ 0.306 38pa 0.420 12pa Tiny Sample 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample
7 Kyle Teel 0.352 101pa ★ 0.268 45pa ▼ 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample 0.245 18pa Tiny Sample 0.395 4pa Tiny Sample
8 Braden Montgomery 0.379 200pa ★ 0.245 65pa 0.189 71pa 0.267 33pa 0.117 30pa ▼
9 Colson Montgomery 0.317 429pa 0.225 146pa ▼ 0.293 69pa 0.269 41pa 0.360 26pa ★
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters

Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.

Away bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Cleveland Guardians bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.25 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 1.20 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Cade Smith · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Hunter Gaddis · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Sabrowski · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Colin Holderman · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Matt Festa · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Cade Smith · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 52 PA · 14 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#2 Erik Sabrowski · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 31 PA · 9 K / 8 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Hunter Gaddis · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 12 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Tim Herrin · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.756 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 2 HR · small sample
#5 Matt Festa · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Chicago White Sox bullpen
Season: Average · rank 20 · 3.61 ERA · 4.08 FIP · 1.27 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Grant Taylor · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Hudson · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Sean Newcomb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Trevor Richards · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Jordan Hicks · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Grant Taylor · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.708 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 33 PA · 7 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#2 Bryan Hudson · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.689 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 6 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Sean Newcomb · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.689 OPS vs LHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 36 PA · 7 K / 5 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#4 Jordan Hicks · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.708 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 9 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#5 Jordan Leasure · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.708 OPS vs RHP · 12/12 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Cleveland Guardians Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Top Chicago White Sox Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Parker Messick (Cleveland Guardians)
  • Elite ERA (2.56) — strong run prevention
  • Above-average K rate (9.3 K/9)
Hagen Smith (Chicago White Sox)
  • Elite ERA (1.29) — strong run prevention
  • Elite strikeout rate (13.2 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (13.2 K/9)
  • Excellent HR suppression (0.0 HR/9)
  • Control concerns (5.1 BB/9)
  • FIP (1.94) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
  • Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/24)
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
  • Starter sample is small; pitcher edge is partially discounted.
  • Game Edge V1 confidence capped by degraded core participant inputs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
7:00 PM ET · Yankee Stadium
Drew Rasmussen vs Carlos Rodón
Tampa Bay Rays has the edge
Slight Tampa Bay Rays AdvantageGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA) — New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodón (2.67 ERA) — Overall: Slight Tampa Bay Rays Advantage. Edge source: Game Edge V1.1.
Game Edge V1.1: Tampa Bay Rays 4.08 · New York Yankees 3.06 · total 7.14 · New York Yankees differential -1.02.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean -0.95 · previous GE1 -6.12 · corrected GE1 -4.07
Previous GE1 runs: Tampa Bay Rays 4.55 / New York Yankees 3.02
Relative lineup movement: Tampa Bay Rays +0.224 runs; New York Yankees +0.123 runs.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0224; combined factor 1.0224.
New York Yankees offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0193; combined factor 1.0193.
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
New York Yankees starter: 23.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Tampa Bay Rays 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; New York Yankees 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: projected / projected · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Log in to track picks
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Overall edge indicator — left = Tampa Bay Rays · right = New York Yankees · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup: Projected
Home Lineup: Projected
Tonight's Lineup

Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.

Tampa Bay Rays lineup
Projected: Strong (115.8) · season 116.0 · recent 112.9
Order: top 112.5 · middle 126.2 · bottom 107.6
Handedness: 5 L / 4 R / 0 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.729 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 9/9 hitters · 1317 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 4 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 168.8 quality points
Cedric Mullins absent · reason unknown
Nick Fortes absent · reason unknown
Taylor Walls absent · reason unknown
Richie Palacios absent · reason unknown
Jake Fraley in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 83.0
Ryan Vilade in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 91.6
Liam Hicks in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 120.3
Victor Mesa Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 138.1
Vs starter: 58 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
New York Yankees lineup
Projected: Above average (102.8) · season 104.5 · recent 90.5
Order: top 122.6 · middle 92.5 · bottom 90.1
Handedness: 6 L / 3 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.737 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 2874 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 4 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 115.8 quality points
Ryan McMahon absent · reason unknown
Amed Rosario absent · reason unknown
Austin Wells absent · reason unknown
José Caballero absent · reason unknown
Heliot Ramos in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 92.6
Luis García Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 99.5
Spencer Jones in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 95.9
George Lombard Jr. in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 91.7
Vs starter: 93 combined direct PA · Moderate sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · RHP · 30 GS
Above Average
2.67ERA
0.91WHIP
9.10K/9
1.70BB/9
0.70HR/9
172.0IP
2.87FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Carlos Rodón
New York Yankees · LHP · 16 GS
Above Average
2.67ERA
1.06WHIP
9.70K/9
4.10BB/9
0.80HR/9
84.3IP
3.49FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup

What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.

Drew Rasmussen vs New York Yankees
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Carlos Rodón vs Tampa Bay Rays
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
  • No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
  • The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Tampa Bay Rays Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Carlos Rodón )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Yandy Díaz 0.320 463pa 0.451 154pa ★ 0.350 70pa 0.303 66pa ▼ 0.287 24pa Tiny Sample
2 Jake Fraley 0.314 84pa ★ ▼ 0.223 18pa Tiny Sample 0.378 11pa Tiny Sample 0.660 4pa Tiny Sample 0.382 11pa Tiny Sample
3 Jonathan Aranda 0.347 467pa ★ 0.336 123pa 0.334 77pa 0.339 51pa 0.241 30pa ▼
4 Junior Caminero 0.413 386pa 0.323 206pa 0.290 88pa ▼ 0.280 61pa 0.484 26pa ★
5 Ryan Vilade 0.335 209pa 0.192 55pa ▼ 0.519 31pa ★ 0.227 30pa 0.314 5pa Tiny Sample
6 Liam Hicks 0.351 373pa 0.292 107pa ▼ 0.333 71pa 0.400 37pa ★ 0.343 27pa
7 Chandler Simpson 0.316 464pa 0.339 104pa ★ 0.192 64pa ▼ 0.283 38pa 0.231 22pa Tiny Sample
8 Victor Mesa Jr. 0.333 185pa 0.316 61pa 0.467 28pa ★ 0.247 25pa ▼ 0.189 14pa Tiny Sample
9 Jonny DeLuca 0.327 252pa ★ 0.264 110pa 0.239 54pa ▼ 0.253 28pa 0.293 6pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
New York Yankees Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Drew Rasmussen )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.327 237pa 0.348 81pa ★ 0.306 49pa ▼ 0.325 32pa 0.147 6pa Tiny Sample
2 Ben Rice 0.435 372pa ★ 0.338 164pa 0.362 88pa 0.311 71pa 0.229 34pa ▼
3 Cody Bellinger 0.343 377pa 0.361 99pa ★ 0.239 65pa 0.305 40pa 0.200 37pa ▼
4 Aaron Judge 0.439 142pa 0.260 73pa ▼ 0.283 42pa 0.443 27pa ★ 0.485 12pa Tiny Sample
5 Heliot Ramos 0.296 272pa 0.314 101pa 0.223 48pa ▼ 0.340 34pa ★ 0.540 10pa Tiny Sample
6 Luis García Jr. 0.366 259pa 0.357 119pa 0.295 117pa 0.392 61pa ★ 0.075 40pa ▼
7 Trent Grisham 0.306 346pa 0.347 84pa ★ 0.296 59pa 0.255 29pa ▼ 0.071 22pa Tiny Sample
8 Amed Rosario 0.265 139pa ▼ 0.303 55pa 0.301 46pa ★ 0.402 23pa Tiny Sample 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample
9 Jasson Domínguez 0.276 156pa ▼ 0.300 36pa 0.412 43pa ★ 0.347 12pa Tiny Sample 0.146 20pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters

Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.

Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen
Season: Average · rank 12 · 3.72 ERA · 4.31 FIP · 1.16 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Bryan Baker · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tyler Wells · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Kevin Kelly · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Cole Sulser · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Cleavinger · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Bryan Baker · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 8 K / 4 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#2 Tyler Wells · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Kevin Kelly · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 15 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Cole Sulser · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.737 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 5 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Garrett Cleavinger · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.811 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 2 HR · tiny sample
New York Yankees bullpen
Season: Good · rank 5 · 3.12 ERA · 3.95 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
David Bednar · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Ryan Yarbrough · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Fernando Cruz · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
John Schreiber · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tim Hill · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 David Bednar · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 35 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 5 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Fernando Cruz · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Splitter/Forkball, Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 3 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Brent Headrick · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 29 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#4 John Schreiber · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 14 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.786 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 26 PA · 4 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#5 Ryan Yarbrough · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.729 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 2 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
Top Tampa Bay Rays Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Top New York Yankees Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays)
  • Elite ERA (2.67) — strong run prevention
  • Above-average K rate (9.1 K/9)
  • Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
  • FIP (2.87) confirms elite results
Carlos Rodón (New York Yankees)
  • Elite ERA (2.67) — strong run prevention
  • Above-average K rate (9.7 K/9)
  • Control concerns (4.1 BB/9)
⚠ Data Notes
  • Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/18)
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages. Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order. Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.