⚾ Daily Matchup Lab

Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.

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Sat, Oct 10, 2026
All Games (1) ★ Focus (0) Lineup Edge Pitcher Edge Balanced Low Confidence

Matchups

1 game
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
7:00 PM ET · Progressive Field
Sean Burke vs Gavin Williams
Evenly matched tonight
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke (3.34 ERA) — Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1: Chicago White Sox 3.95 · Cleveland Guardians 3.65 · total 7.60 · Cleveland Guardians differential -0.29.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean -0.21 · previous GE1 -5.83 · corrected GE1 -1.18
Previous GE1 runs: Chicago White Sox 4.77 / Cleveland Guardians 3.31
Relative lineup movement: Chicago White Sox +0.052 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.019 runs.
Chicago White Sox offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0026; combined factor 1.0026.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0015; combined factor 1.0015.
Chicago White Sox starter: 21.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Cleveland Guardians starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Chicago White Sox 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Log in to track picks
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians
Overall edge indicator — left = Chicago White Sox · right = Cleveland Guardians · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup: Confirmed
Home Lineup: Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup

Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.

Chicago White Sox lineup
Projected: Strong (118.3) · season 119.4 · recent 111.7
Order: top 113.1 · middle 135.8 · bottom 104.8
Handedness: 4 L / 5 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.725 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 2542 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 46.2 quality points
Tristan Peters absent · reason unknown
Colson Montgomery absent · reason unknown
Braden Montgomery absent · reason unknown
Tommy Pham in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 86.6
Kyle Teel in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 90.2
Brenton Doyle in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 110.2
Vs starter: 74 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Cleveland Guardians lineup
Projected: Below average (93.7) · season 88.1 · recent 108.2
Order: top 107.2 · middle 89.7 · bottom 79.4
Handedness: 4 L / 2 R / 3 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.724 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 2812 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Significantly weakened · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -36.3 quality points
Rhys Hoskins absent · reason unknown
Brayan Rocchio absent · reason unknown
Kyle Manzardo absent · reason unknown
Jo Adell in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 110.3
Nathaniel Lowe in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 67.4
Angel Genao in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 52.2
Vs starter: 53 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Sean Burke
Chicago White Sox · RHP · 27 GS
Average
3.34ERA
1.20WHIP
9.70K/9
3.20BB/9
1.00HR/9
172.3IP
3.67FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · RHP · 32 GS
Average
3.76ERA
1.11WHIP
12.10K/9
3.00BB/9
1.40HR/9
184.3IP
3.52FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup

What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.

Sean Burke vs Cleveland Guardians
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Gavin Williams vs Chicago White Sox
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
  • No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
  • The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Chicago White Sox Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Gavin Williams )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Sam Antonacci 0.382 368pa ★ 0.256 113pa 0.232 62pa ▼ 0.378 35pa 0.354 18pa Tiny Sample
2 Kyle Teel 0.352 101pa ★ 0.268 45pa ▼ 0.174 13pa Tiny Sample 0.245 18pa Tiny Sample 0.395 4pa Tiny Sample
3 Miguel Vargas 0.367 502pa 0.344 157pa 0.375 57pa ★ 0.314 61pa ▼ 0.000 5pa Tiny Sample
4 Munetaka Murakami 0.374 310pa 0.263 165pa ▼ 0.380 57pa 0.433 48pa ★ 0.170 16pa Tiny Sample
5 Andrew Benintendi 0.346 260pa ★ 0.298 112pa 0.198 75pa 0.349 37pa 0.171 30pa ▼
6 Tristan Peters 0.351 316pa 0.389 90pa ★ 0.252 64pa 0.241 54pa ▼ 0.353 22pa Tiny Sample
7 Chase Meidroth 0.356 415pa ★ 0.310 151pa 0.345 92pa 0.251 40pa ▼ 0.389 24pa Tiny Sample
8 Colson Montgomery 0.317 429pa 0.225 146pa ▼ 0.293 69pa 0.269 41pa 0.360 26pa ★
9 Randal Grichuk 0.353 167pa 0.373 76pa ★ 0.312 52pa ▼ 0.239 17pa Tiny Sample 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample
9 Brenton Doyle 0.327 143pa ★ 0.205 73pa ▼ 0.306 38pa 0.420 12pa Tiny Sample 0.000 7pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Cleveland Guardians Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Sean Burke )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Steven Kwan 0.359 477pa 0.261 130pa 0.261 68pa ▼ 0.382 34pa ★ 0.209 21pa Tiny Sample
2 José Ramírez 0.335 304pa 0.277 122pa 0.240 116pa ▼ 0.407 49pa ★ 0.290 32pa
3 Chase DeLauter 0.410 370pa ★ 0.401 115pa 0.206 73pa ▼ 0.290 54pa 0.241 29pa
4 Jo Adell 0.310 430pa 0.263 173pa ▼ 0.309 79pa 0.522 46pa ★ 0.168 19pa Tiny Sample
5 Nathaniel Lowe 0.336 347pa 0.369 58pa ★ 0.266 54pa ▼ 0.283 38pa 0.303 16pa Tiny Sample
6 Travis Bazzana 0.350 348pa ★ 0.259 120pa ▼ 0.319 57pa 0.353 31pa 0.210 20pa Tiny Sample
6 Angel Genao 0.298 97pa ★ ▼ 0.249 23pa Tiny Sample 0.185 18pa Tiny Sample 0.239 11pa Tiny Sample 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample
7 Patrick Bailey 0.289 219pa 0.310 63pa ★ 0.189 68pa ▼ 0.296 47pa 0.135 13pa Tiny Sample
8 Petey Halpin 0.322 138pa ★ 0.177 42pa 0.139 35pa ▼ 0.473 17pa Tiny Sample 0.339 6pa Tiny Sample
9 Brayan Rocchio 0.341 388pa ★ 0.302 94pa 0.252 123pa 0.247 41pa ▼ 0.108 23pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters

Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.

Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Chicago White Sox bullpen
Season: Average · rank 20 · 3.61 ERA · 4.08 FIP · 1.27 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Grant Taylor · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Bryan Hudson · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Sean Newcomb · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Trevor Richards · reliever · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Jordan Hicks · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Grant Taylor · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 10 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.724 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 23 PA · 4 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Bryan Hudson · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 8 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 2 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Sean Newcomb · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.723 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 30 PA · 6 K / 4 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Jordan Hicks · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 10 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.724 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#5 Jordan Leasure · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 3 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.724 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Splitter/Forkball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 9 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Cleveland Guardians bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.25 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 1.20 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Cade Smith · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Hunter Gaddis · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Sabrowski · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Colin Holderman · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Matt Festa · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Cade Smith · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 38 PA · 10 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · small sample
#2 Erik Sabrowski · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.781 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 28 PA · 9 K / 7 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#3 Hunter Gaddis · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 29 PA · 8 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Tim Herrin · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.781 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 24 PA · 5 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#5 Matt Festa · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 18 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Chicago White Sox Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Top Cleveland Guardians Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Sean Burke (Chicago White Sox)
  • Above-average K rate (9.7 K/9)
Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians)
  • Elite strikeout rate (12.1 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (12.1 K/9)
⚠ Data Notes
  • Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages. Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order. Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.