⚾ Daily Matchup Lab

Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.

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Sun, Oct 11, 2026
All Games (1) ★ Focus (0) Lineup Edge Pitcher Edge Balanced Low Confidence

Matchups

1 game
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:00 PM ET · American Family Field
Tarik Skubal vs Jacob Misiorowski
Misiorowski (home) dealing — elite stuff
Slight Milwaukee Brewers AdvantagePitcher-Based Low Confidence
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA) — Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski (1.80 ERA) — Overall: Slight Milwaukee Brewers Advantage. Edge source: Pitcher-Based.
Game Edge V1.1 unavailable: legacy headline retained · missing phase1a neutral base components.
Log in to track picks
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
Overall edge indicator — left = Los Angeles Dodgers · right = Milwaukee Brewers · home pitching edge · even lineups
Away Lineup: Confirmed
Home Lineup: Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup

Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.

Los Angeles Dodgers lineup
Confirmed: Strong (117.4) · season 118.6 · recent 106.2
Order: top 115.2 · middle 135.9 · bottom 102.0
Handedness: 4 L / 5 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.791 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3260 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 33.4 quality points
Miguel Rojas absent · reason unknown
Alex Freeland absent · reason unknown
Enrique Hernández in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 83.0
Tommy Edman in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 99.8
Vs starter: 34 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Milwaukee Brewers lineup
Confirmed: Strong (117.1) · season 118.4 · recent 100.7
Order: top 127.0 · middle 135.8 · bottom 81.6
Handedness: 3 L / 5 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.771 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 9/9 hitters · 1267 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 3 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 100.1 quality points
Christian Yelich absent · reason unknown
David Hamilton absent · reason unknown
Sal Frelick absent · reason unknown
Andrew Vaughn in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 142.1
Cooper Pratt in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 88.9
Luis Lara in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 58.4
Vs starter: 69 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Tarik Skubal
Los Angeles Dodgers · LHP · 26 GS
Above Average
2.72ERA
0.96WHIP
10.60K/9
1.50BB/9
0.80HR/9
158.7IP
2.56FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers · RHP · 30 GS
Elite
1.80ERA
0.80WHIP
13.00K/9
2.30BB/9
0.70HR/9
174.7IP
2.22FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup

What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.

Tarik Skubal vs Milwaukee Brewers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Jacob Misiorowski vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
  • No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
  • The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Jacob Misiorowski )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Mookie Betts 0.366 379pa ★ 0.299 109pa 0.280 61pa 0.252 31pa ▼ 0.305 13pa Tiny Sample
2 Freddie Freeman 0.374 424pa 0.260 145pa ▼ 0.273 77pa 0.394 62pa ★ 0.377 19pa Tiny Sample
3 Will Smith 0.348 175pa ★ 0.242 88pa ▼ 0.458 24pa Tiny Sample 0.309 22pa Tiny Sample 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample
4 Shohei Ohtani 0.396 328pa ★ 0.344 141pa 0.377 88pa 0.233 62pa ▼ 0.347 23pa Tiny Sample
5 Teoscar Hernández 0.366 308pa ★ 0.296 128pa 0.360 66pa 0.236 32pa ▼ 0.213 24pa Tiny Sample
6 Max Muncy 0.440 308pa ★ 0.285 117pa 0.291 98pa 0.305 61pa 0.249 36pa ▼
7 Andy Pages 0.341 392pa 0.360 152pa 0.290 49pa ▼ 0.363 36pa ★ 0.281 15pa Tiny Sample
8 Kyle Tucker 0.342 403pa ★ 0.314 112pa 0.242 95pa ▼ 0.302 47pa 0.270 24pa Tiny Sample
9 Enrique Hernández 0.329 58pa ★ 0.123 30pa ▼ 0.257 14pa Tiny Sample 0.474 8pa Tiny Sample —
9 Tommy Edman 0.303 206pa 0.356 57pa ★ 0.285 47pa ▼ 0.132 24pa Tiny Sample 0.565 13pa Tiny Sample
9 Josue De Paula 0.396 39pa ★ ▼ 0.351 10pa Tiny Sample 0.316 5pa Tiny Sample — 0.484 4pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Milwaukee Brewers Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Tarik Skubal )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Jackson Chourio 0.377 357pa 0.258 153pa ▼ 0.353 68pa 0.487 39pa ★ 0.190 19pa Tiny Sample
2 Brice Turang 0.393 410pa ★ 0.307 150pa 0.283 80pa 0.349 57pa 0.245 45pa ▼
3 William Contreras 0.379 417pa ★ 0.262 162pa ▼ 0.283 59pa 0.280 41pa 0.297 21pa Tiny Sample
4 Jake Bauers 0.413 378pa 0.385 141pa 0.422 62pa ★ 0.298 61pa ▼ 0.311 23pa Tiny Sample
5 Andrew Vaughn 0.455 211pa ★ 0.232 85pa ▼ 0.326 45pa 0.144 23pa Tiny Sample 0.323 9pa Tiny Sample
6 Garrett Mitchell 0.342 344pa 0.330 130pa ★ 0.246 76pa ▼ 0.315 48pa 0.098 23pa Tiny Sample
7 Cooper Pratt 0.339 200pa 0.380 72pa ★ 0.244 44pa ▼ 0.381 19pa Tiny Sample 0.143 11pa Tiny Sample
8 Luis Lara 0.293 146pa ★ 0.223 47pa 0.222 26pa ▼ 0.202 20pa Tiny Sample 0.303 11pa Tiny Sample
9 Joey Ortiz 0.340 283pa ★ 0.273 110pa 0.230 32pa ▼ 0.296 23pa Tiny Sample 0.000 11pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters

Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.

Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen
Season: Good · rank 4 · 3.55 ERA · 3.63 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Tanner Scott · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Edwin Díaz · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Alex Vesia · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Will Klein · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Jack Dreyer · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Tanner Scott · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 19 PA · 8 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Alex Vesia · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 6 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Will Klein · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.794 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Edgardo Henriquez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.794 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 5 PA · 0 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Edwin Díaz · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.794 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 8 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen
Season: Elite · rank 2 · 2.97 ERA · 3.56 FIP · 1.18 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Trevor Megill · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Abner Uribe · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Chad Patrick · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Aaron Ashby · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Antonio Senzatela · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Trevor Megill · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.791 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 13 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Abner Uribe · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.791 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Aaron Ashby · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.776 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 32 PA · 3 K / 9 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Chad Patrick · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.791 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Antonio Senzatela · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.791 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 169 PA · 23 K / 18 BB / 10 HR · reliable sample
Top Los Angeles Dodgers Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Top Milwaukee Brewers Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Tarik Skubal (Los Angeles Dodgers)
  • Elite ERA (2.72) — strong run prevention
  • Elite strikeout rate (10.6 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (10.6 K/9)
  • Sharp control (1.5 BB/9)
  • FIP (2.56) confirms elite results
Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers)
  • Elite ERA (1.80) — strong run prevention
  • Elite strikeout rate (13.0 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (13.0 K/9)
  • FIP (2.22) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
  • Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages. Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order. Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.