⚾ Daily Matchup Lab
Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.
Thu, Oct 15, 2026Matchups
2 games
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Milwaukee Brewers starter Shane Drohan (4.19 ERA) — Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
Milwaukee Brewers 4.29 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.46 ·
total 8.75 ·
Los Angeles Dodgers differential +0.17.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +3.37 · previous GE1 +1.96 · corrected GE1 +0.67
Previous GE1 runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.59 / Los Angeles Dodgers 5.08
Relative lineup movement: Milwaukee Brewers +0.018 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers -0.001 runs.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0696; combined factor 1.0696.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0800; combined factor 1.0800.
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · current season recent start median
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 23.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Milwaukee Brewers 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Milwaukee Brewers 4.59 / Los Angeles Dodgers 5.08
Relative lineup movement: Milwaukee Brewers +0.018 runs; Los Angeles Dodgers -0.001 runs.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0696; combined factor 1.0696.
Los Angeles Dodgers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0800; combined factor 1.0800.
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 18.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · current season recent start median
Los Angeles Dodgers starter: 23.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Milwaukee Brewers 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Los Angeles Dodgers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Milwaukee Brewers · right = Los Angeles Dodgers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Milwaukee Brewers lineup
Confirmed: Above average (106.3) · season 104.4 · recent 100.0
Order: top 125.3 · middle 116.3 · bottom 68.9
Handedness: 6 L / 3 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.773 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 3297 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Somewhat weakened · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -6.4 quality points
Joey Ortiz absent · reason unknown
Cooper Pratt in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 91.3
Vs starter: 54 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Los Angeles Dodgers lineup
Confirmed: Strong (113.4) · season 115.5 · recent 100.0
Order: top 132.4 · middle 102.6 · bottom 106.2
Handedness: 4 L / 6 R / 1 S vs LHP starter.
Vs LHP: 0.779 weighted OPS vs 0.710 league · 11/11 hitters · 1622 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 22.0 quality points
Alex Freeland absent · reason unknown
Enrique Hernández in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 86.7
Vs starter: 36 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
4.19ERA
1.32WHIP
9.00K/9
3.20BB/9
1.00HR/9
124.7IP
3.78FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
3.53ERA
0.95WHIP
11.90K/9
3.00BB/9
0.90HR/9
74.0IP
2.79FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Shane Drohan vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Tyler Glasnow vs Milwaukee Brewers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Milwaukee Brewers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Tyler Glasnow
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | 0.377 357pa | 0.258 153pa ▼ | 0.353 68pa | 0.487 39pa ★ | 0.190 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 0.393 410pa ★ | 0.307 150pa | 0.283 80pa | 0.349 57pa | 0.245 45pa ▼ |
| 3 | William Contreras | 0.379 417pa ★ | 0.262 162pa ▼ | 0.283 59pa | 0.280 41pa | 0.297 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Jake Bauers | 0.413 378pa | 0.385 141pa | 0.422 62pa ★ | 0.298 61pa ▼ | 0.311 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Christian Yelich | 0.321 331pa | 0.224 142pa ▼ | 0.373 50pa ★ | 0.243 38pa | 0.535 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Garrett Mitchell | 0.342 344pa | 0.330 130pa ★ | 0.246 76pa ▼ | 0.315 48pa | 0.098 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | 0.339 200pa | 0.380 72pa ★ | 0.244 44pa ▼ | 0.381 19pa Tiny Sample | 0.143 11pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Sal Frelick | 0.286 296pa ★ | 0.197 88pa ▼ | 0.233 34pa | 0.493 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.098 18pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | David Hamilton | 0.373 272pa ★ | 0.263 93pa ▼ | 0.275 42pa | 0.111 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.052 17pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Shane Drohan
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 0.396 328pa ★ | 0.344 141pa | 0.377 88pa | 0.233 62pa ▼ | 0.347 23pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | 0.366 379pa ★ | 0.299 109pa | 0.280 61pa | 0.252 31pa ▼ | 0.305 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | 0.374 424pa | 0.260 145pa ▼ | 0.273 77pa | 0.394 62pa ★ | 0.377 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 4 | Will Smith | 0.348 175pa ★ | 0.242 88pa ▼ | 0.458 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.309 22pa Tiny Sample | 0.098 9pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker | 0.342 403pa ★ | 0.314 112pa | 0.242 95pa ▼ | 0.302 47pa | 0.270 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Teoscar Hernández | 0.366 308pa ★ | 0.296 128pa | 0.360 66pa | 0.236 32pa ▼ | 0.213 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Miguel Rojas | 0.365 182pa ★ | 0.265 66pa | 0.163 29pa ▼ | 0.382 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.176 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Max Muncy | 0.440 308pa ★ | 0.285 117pa | 0.291 98pa | 0.305 61pa | 0.249 36pa ▼ |
| 7 | Tommy Edman | 0.303 206pa | 0.356 57pa ★ | 0.285 47pa ▼ | 0.132 24pa Tiny Sample | 0.565 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Andy Pages | 0.341 392pa | 0.360 152pa | 0.290 49pa ▼ | 0.363 36pa ★ | 0.281 15pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Enrique Hernández | 0.329 58pa ★ | 0.123 30pa ▼ | 0.257 14pa Tiny Sample | 0.474 8pa Tiny Sample | — |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Away bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen
Season: Elite · rank 2 · 2.97 ERA · 3.56 FIP · 1.18 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Trevor Megill · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Abner Uribe · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Chad Patrick · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Aaron Ashby · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Antonio Senzatela · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Trevor Megill · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 34 PA · 14 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 34 PA · 14 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Abner Uribe · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Aaron Ashby · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 40 PA · 4 K / 9 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.779 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 40 PA · 4 K / 9 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#4 Chad Patrick · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 8 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 8 PA · 0 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Antonio Senzatela · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 175 PA · 24 K / 18 BB / 10 HR · reliable sample
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.770 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 175 PA · 24 K / 18 BB / 10 HR · reliable sample
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen
Season: Good · rank 4 · 3.55 ERA · 3.63 FIP · 1.21 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Tanner Scott · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Edwin Díaz · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Alex Vesia · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Will Klein · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Edgardo Henriquez · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Tanner Scott · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
closer role · 25 saves · 13 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 25 PA · 8 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · small sample
#2 Alex Vesia · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 19 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Will Klein · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 4 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Edgardo Henriquez · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 3 PA · 0 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 2 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 3 PA · 0 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Edwin Díaz · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 7 saves · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.773 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 22 PA · 11 K / 3 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Milwaukee Brewers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Los Angeles Dodgers Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Shane Drohan
(Milwaukee Brewers)
- Above-average K rate (9.0 K/9)
Tyler Glasnow
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
- Elite strikeout rate (11.9 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (11.9 K/9)
- FIP (2.79) confirms elite results
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax (3.53 ERA) — Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1:
Tampa Bay Rays 4.00 ·
Cleveland Guardians 3.67 ·
total 7.67 ·
Cleveland Guardians differential -0.32.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +0.32 · previous GE1 -4.24 · corrected GE1 -1.28
Previous GE1 runs: Tampa Bay Rays 4.07 / Cleveland Guardians 3.01
Relative lineup movement: Tampa Bay Rays +0.079 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.025 runs.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0780; combined factor 1.0780.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0125; combined factor 0.9875.
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 17.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · current season recent start median
Cleveland Guardians starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Tampa Bay Rays 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Previous GE1 runs: Tampa Bay Rays 4.07 / Cleveland Guardians 3.01
Relative lineup movement: Tampa Bay Rays +0.079 runs; Cleveland Guardians +0.025 runs.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0780; combined factor 1.0780.
Cleveland Guardians offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON -0.0125; combined factor 0.9875.
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 17.0 BF · spot or bulk starter · current season recent start median
Cleveland Guardians starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Tampa Bay Rays 5 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Cleveland Guardians 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Overall edge indicator — left = Tampa Bay Rays · right = Cleveland Guardians · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup:
Confirmed
Home Lineup:
Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup
Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.
Tampa Bay Rays lineup
Confirmed: Above average (103.7) · season 100.6 · recent 100.0
Order: top 134.9 · middle 110.5 · bottom 67.0
Handedness: 5 L / 4 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.780 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3462 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 2 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 32.4 quality points
Cedric Mullins absent · reason unknown
Nick Fortes absent · reason unknown
Liam Hicks in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 123.0
Jorge Mateo in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 40.5
Vs starter: 53 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Cleveland Guardians lineup
Confirmed: Weak (85.3) · season 79.9 · recent 100.0
Order: top 102.0 · middle 81.7 · bottom 68.8
Handedness: 5 L / 1 R / 4 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.713 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 10/10 hitters · 3309 combined PA · average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Significantly weakened · 4 regulars absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -33.1 quality points
Rhys Hoskins absent · reason unknown
David Fry absent · reason unknown
Angel Martínez absent · reason unknown
Kyle Manzardo absent · reason unknown
Jo Adell in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 100.1
Nathaniel Lowe in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 72.6
Angel Genao in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 53.3
Patrick Bailey in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 77.1
Vs starter: 48 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context
How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Average
3.53ERA
1.18WHIP
9.30K/9
2.70BB/9
1.20HR/9
112.3IP
3.78FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Average
3.76ERA
1.11WHIP
12.10K/9
3.00BB/9
1.40HR/9
184.3IP
3.52FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup
What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.
Griffin Jax vs Cleveland Guardians
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Gavin Williams vs Tampa Bay Rays
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context
Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.
ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
- No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
- The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Tampa Bay Rays Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Gavin Williams
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | 0.320 463pa | 0.451 154pa ★ | 0.350 70pa | 0.303 66pa ▼ | 0.287 24pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 0.347 467pa ★ | 0.336 123pa | 0.334 77pa | 0.339 51pa | 0.241 30pa ▼ |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 0.413 386pa | 0.323 206pa | 0.290 88pa ▼ | 0.280 61pa | 0.484 26pa ★ |
| 4 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0.333 185pa | 0.316 61pa | 0.467 28pa ★ | 0.247 25pa ▼ | 0.189 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | 0.316 464pa | 0.339 104pa ★ | 0.192 64pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.231 22pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Liam Hicks | 0.351 373pa | 0.292 107pa ▼ | 0.333 71pa | 0.400 37pa ★ | 0.343 27pa |
| 7 | Jonny DeLuca | 0.327 252pa ★ | 0.264 110pa | 0.239 54pa ▼ | 0.253 28pa | 0.293 6pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Jorge Mateo | 0.291 134pa ★ | 0.235 66pa | 0.116 32pa ▼ | 0.169 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.176 5pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Richie Palacios | 0.337 279pa | 0.279 64pa | 0.376 43pa ★ | 0.133 45pa ▼ | 0.126 14pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | 0.311 324pa ★ | 0.182 57pa | 0.146 60pa ▼ | 0.196 42pa | 0.246 15pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Cleveland Guardians Hitters vs Pitch Families
(opp. starter:
Griffin Jax
)
📖 Reading this table:
green wOBA = hits this pitch hard
·
red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch
·
★ = hitter's best pitch type
·
▼ = weakest pitch type
·
PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
| # | Hitter | Fastball | Slider/Sweep | Changeup | Curve/Slurve | Splitter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | 0.359 477pa | 0.261 130pa | 0.261 68pa ▼ | 0.382 34pa ★ | 0.209 21pa Tiny Sample |
| 2 | José Ramírez | 0.335 304pa | 0.277 122pa | 0.240 116pa ▼ | 0.407 49pa ★ | 0.290 32pa |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | 0.410 370pa ★ | 0.401 115pa | 0.206 73pa ▼ | 0.290 54pa | 0.241 29pa |
| 4 | Jo Adell | 0.310 430pa | 0.263 173pa ▼ | 0.309 79pa | 0.522 46pa ★ | 0.168 19pa Tiny Sample |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | 0.336 347pa | 0.369 58pa ★ | 0.266 54pa ▼ | 0.283 38pa | 0.303 16pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Travis Bazzana | 0.350 348pa ★ | 0.259 120pa ▼ | 0.319 57pa | 0.353 31pa | 0.210 20pa Tiny Sample |
| 6 | Angel Genao | 0.298 97pa ★ ▼ | 0.249 23pa Tiny Sample | 0.185 18pa Tiny Sample | 0.239 11pa Tiny Sample | 0.220 4pa Tiny Sample |
| 7 | Patrick Bailey | 0.289 219pa | 0.310 63pa ★ | 0.189 68pa ▼ | 0.296 47pa | 0.135 13pa Tiny Sample |
| 8 | Petey Halpin | 0.322 138pa ★ | 0.177 42pa | 0.139 35pa ▼ | 0.473 17pa Tiny Sample | 0.339 6pa Tiny Sample |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | 0.341 388pa ★ | 0.302 94pa | 0.252 123pa | 0.247 41pa ▼ | 0.108 23pa Tiny Sample |
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters
Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.
Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen
Season: Average · rank 12 · 3.72 ERA · 4.31 FIP · 1.16 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Bryan Baker · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tyler Wells · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Kevin Kelly · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Cole Sulser · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Cleavinger · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Expected Arms
#1 Bryan Baker · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 3 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 21 PA · 3 K / 2 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#2 Tyler Wells · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 20 PA · 5 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#3 Kevin Kelly · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 12 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 12 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#4 Cole Sulser · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 15 PA · 2 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.713 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 15 PA · 2 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Cam Booser · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 13 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.668 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 9 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 13 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.668 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 9 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
Cleveland Guardians bullpen
Season: Good · rank 3 · 3.25 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 1.20 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Cade Smith · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Hunter Gaddis · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Erik Sabrowski · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Colin Holderman · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Matt Festa · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Cade Smith · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
closer role · 41 saves · 1 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Splitter/Forkball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 6 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Erik Sabrowski · LHP · primary expected arm · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 3 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 28 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 7 PA · 3 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Hunter Gaddis · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 1 K / 0 BB / 2 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 32 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 1 K / 0 BB / 2 HR · tiny sample
#4 Tim Herrin · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 2 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 16 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 2 K / 3 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#5 Matt Festa · RHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
setup role · 1 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.780 OPS vs RHP · 10/10 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 3 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Tampa Bay Rays Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Top Cleveland Guardians Advantages
Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.
No recent form data available.
Pitcher Notes
Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.
Griffin Jax
(Tampa Bay Rays)
- Above-average K rate (9.3 K/9)
Gavin Williams
(Cleveland Guardians)
- Elite strikeout rate (12.1 K/9)
- Above-average K rate (12.1 K/9)
⚠ Data Notes
- Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/20)
- Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages.
Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order.
Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.