⚾ Daily Matchup Lab

Pitcher arsenal vs expected lineup matchup edges for today's MLB slate.

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Sat, Oct 24, 2026
All Games (1) ★ Focus (0) Lineup Edge Pitcher Edge Balanced Low Confidence

Matchups

1 game
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:00 PM ET · American Family Field
Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Henderson
Evenly matched tonight
BalancedGame Edge V1.1 Low Confidence
Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA) — Milwaukee Brewers starter Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA) — Matchup appears evenly balanced.
Game Edge V1.1: Tampa Bay Rays 3.76 · Milwaukee Brewers 4.00 · total 7.77 · Milwaukee Brewers differential +0.24.
Participation and degraded-input diagnostics
Legacy Matchup Lean +0.20 · previous GE1 +2.14 · corrected GE1 +0.96
Previous GE1 runs: Tampa Bay Rays 3.70 / Milwaukee Brewers 4.23
Relative lineup movement: Tampa Bay Rays +0.104 runs; Milwaukee Brewers +0.010 runs.
Tampa Bay Rays offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0685; combined factor 1.0685.
Milwaukee Brewers offense starter interaction: PL1 PLATOON +0.0677; combined factor 1.0677.
Tampa Bay Rays starter: 24.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Milwaukee Brewers starter: 22.0 BF · normal starter · current season recent start median
Bullpen exposure: Tampa Bay Rays 3 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF; Milwaukee Brewers 4 named arm(s) + 0.0 residual BF.
Lineups: confirmed / confirmed · defense neutral no fielding metric · environment phase1a park weather.
Missing/degraded: fielding defense metric.
Log in to track picks
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers
Overall edge indicator — left = Tampa Bay Rays · right = Milwaukee Brewers · expected-participation run differential
Away Lineup: Confirmed
Home Lineup: Confirmed
Tonight's Lineup

Season skill anchors the rating; recent form is supporting context. Game Edge V1 consumes the selected lineup quality and its personnel/replacement state.

Tampa Bay Rays lineup
Confirmed: Average (101.3) · season 99.1 · recent 100.0
Order: top 108.8 · middle 110.6 · bottom 80.7
Handedness: 5 L / 5 R / 1 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.772 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 11/11 hitters · 3641 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Stronger than normal · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta 67.8 quality points
Cedric Mullins absent · reason unknown
Liam Hicks in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 123.0
Vs starter: 2 combined direct PA · Tiny sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Milwaukee Brewers lineup
Confirmed: Above average (105.9) · season 104.4 · recent 100.0
Order: top 125.3 · middle 116.3 · bottom 68.9
Handedness: 6 L / 3 R / 0 S vs RHP starter.
Vs RHP: 0.771 weighted OPS vs 0.723 league · 9/9 hitters · 3297 combined PA · above average (reliable sample)
Personnel: Somewhat weakened · 1 regular absent · 0 with accepted reason · delta -6.4 quality points
Joey Ortiz absent · reason unknown
Cooper Pratt in selected lineup as replacement context · quality 91.3
Vs starter: 36 combined direct PA · Small sample. Pitch interaction: available.
Availability reason is unknown; absence is not labeled as injury or healthy.
Pitcher Context

How good are tonight's starters? Hover any stat for a plain-English explanation.

Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · RHP · 30 GS
Above Average
2.67ERA
0.91WHIP
9.10K/9
1.70BB/9
0.70HR/9
172.0IP
2.87FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Logan Henderson
Milwaukee Brewers · RHP · 18 GS
Above Average
2.47ERA
0.84WHIP
10.10K/9
1.70BB/9
1.30HR/9
98.3IP
3.37FIP
FIP = what the pitcher truly controlled: Ks, walks, and home runs — ignores whether balls in play fell in for hits.
FIP uses full-season pitcher data.
Starter vs Opponent & Current Lineup

What each starter has actually done against this club and the selected lineup. Direct BvP is context, never a model override.

Drew Rasmussen vs Milwaukee Brewers
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Logan Henderson vs Tampa Bay Rays
Historical matchup evidence is hidden because the current serving rebuild is newer than this game. Replay SPL1 at that game's pregame cutoff to view it without leakage.
Pitch-Family & Type Context

Every hitter has pitch types they crush and types that give them trouble. Green = hits it hard. Red = struggles. ★ = their best pitch type to hit. ▼ = their weakness.

ℹ Pitcher Arsenal Context
  • No valid arsenal serving rows are available for these starter IDs.
  • The table below shows each hitter's broader season history vs pitch families.
Tampa Bay Rays Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Logan Henderson )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Yandy Díaz 0.320 463pa 0.451 154pa ★ 0.350 70pa 0.303 66pa ▼ 0.287 24pa Tiny Sample
2 Jonathan Aranda 0.347 467pa ★ 0.336 123pa 0.334 77pa 0.339 51pa 0.241 30pa ▼
3 Chandler Simpson 0.316 464pa 0.339 104pa ★ 0.192 64pa ▼ 0.283 38pa 0.231 22pa Tiny Sample
4 Junior Caminero 0.413 386pa 0.323 206pa 0.290 88pa ▼ 0.280 61pa 0.484 26pa ★
5 Nick Fortes 0.309 223pa ★ 0.204 72pa ▼ 0.301 42pa 0.495 14pa Tiny Sample 0.251 7pa Tiny Sample
5 Ryan Vilade 0.335 209pa 0.192 55pa ▼ 0.519 31pa ★ 0.227 30pa 0.314 5pa Tiny Sample
5 Liam Hicks 0.351 373pa 0.292 107pa ▼ 0.333 71pa 0.400 37pa ★ 0.343 27pa
6 Richie Palacios 0.337 279pa 0.279 64pa 0.376 43pa ★ 0.133 45pa ▼ 0.126 14pa Tiny Sample
7 Jonny DeLuca 0.327 252pa ★ 0.264 110pa 0.239 54pa ▼ 0.253 28pa 0.293 6pa Tiny Sample
8 Victor Mesa Jr. 0.333 185pa 0.316 61pa 0.467 28pa ★ 0.247 25pa ▼ 0.189 14pa Tiny Sample
9 Ben Williamson 0.344 204pa ★ 0.211 76pa 0.173 36pa ▼ 0.296 22pa Tiny Sample 0.376 8pa Tiny Sample
9 Taylor Walls 0.311 324pa ★ 0.182 57pa 0.146 60pa ▼ 0.196 42pa 0.246 15pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Milwaukee Brewers Hitters vs Pitch Families (opp. starter: Drew Rasmussen )
📖 Reading this table: green wOBA = hits this pitch hard · red wOBA = struggles vs this pitch · ★ = hitter's best pitch type · ▼ = weakest pitch type · PA = at-bats vs that pitch (higher = more reliable data)
↔ Swipe sideways to see all pitch families
# Hitter Fastball Slider/Sweep Changeup Curve/Slurve Splitter
1 Jackson Chourio 0.377 357pa 0.258 153pa ▼ 0.353 68pa 0.487 39pa ★ 0.190 19pa Tiny Sample
2 Jake Bauers 0.413 378pa 0.385 141pa 0.422 62pa ★ 0.298 61pa ▼ 0.311 23pa Tiny Sample
3 Christian Yelich 0.321 331pa 0.224 142pa ▼ 0.373 50pa ★ 0.243 38pa 0.535 15pa Tiny Sample
4 William Contreras 0.379 417pa ★ 0.262 162pa ▼ 0.283 59pa 0.280 41pa 0.297 21pa Tiny Sample
5 Brice Turang 0.393 410pa ★ 0.307 150pa 0.283 80pa 0.349 57pa 0.245 45pa ▼
6 Garrett Mitchell 0.342 344pa 0.330 130pa ★ 0.246 76pa ▼ 0.315 48pa 0.098 23pa Tiny Sample
7 Cooper Pratt 0.339 200pa 0.380 72pa ★ 0.244 44pa ▼ 0.381 19pa Tiny Sample 0.143 11pa Tiny Sample
8 Sal Frelick 0.286 296pa ★ 0.197 88pa ▼ 0.233 34pa 0.493 24pa Tiny Sample 0.098 18pa Tiny Sample
9 David Hamilton 0.373 272pa ★ 0.263 93pa ▼ 0.275 42pa 0.111 22pa Tiny Sample 0.052 17pa Tiny Sample
Values shown are hitter wOBA vs pitch family · ★ = hitter's best family · ▼ = hitter's weakest
Bullpen Behind the Starters

Season relief quality, recent results, and pregame workload. This is a Bullpen Lean, not a calibrated model edge.

Home bullpen slight advantage. Season, recent, and freshness components receive one transparent comparison vote each.
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen
Season: Average · rank 12 · 3.72 ERA · 4.31 FIP · 1.16 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Bryan Baker · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Tyler Wells · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Kevin Kelly · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Cole Sulser · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Garrett Cleavinger · setup · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Bryan Baker · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 41 saves · 2 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 8 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Tyler Wells · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 4 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Kevin Kelly · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 33 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 5 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#4 Cole Sulser · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 3 saves · 12 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.771 OPS vs RHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Changeup, Slider/Sweeper · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 10 PA · 2 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 Garrett Cleavinger · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 2 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.725 OPS vs LHP · 9/9 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Slider/Sweeper, Fastball · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 8 PA · 4 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen
Season: Elite · rank 2 · 2.97 ERA · 3.56 FIP · 1.18 WHIP
Last 7 days: 0.0 IP · — ERA · 0 runs
Workload: 0 pitches / 0.0 IP last 3 days · 0 used yesterday · 0 back-to-back · Fresh
Availability: legacy partial · source stale through 2026-09-30 13:15:17
Trevor Megill · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Abner Uribe · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Chad Patrick · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh · inactive
Aaron Ashby · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Antonio Senzatela · closer · 0 pitches yesterday / 0 last 3 · fresh
Expected Arms
#1 Trevor Megill · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 30 saves · 7 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.772 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 11 PA · 3 K / 2 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#2 Abner Uribe · RHP · primary expected arm · fresh
closer role · 6 saves · 23 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.772 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 12 PA · 2 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#3 Aaron Ashby · LHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 15 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 14 PA · 3 K / 1 BB / 1 HR · tiny sample
#4 Antonio Senzatela · RHP · likely available option · fresh
closer role · 4 saves · 11 holds
Platoon: selected lineup 0.772 OPS vs RHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Curve/Slurve, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 16 PA · 1 K / 1 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
#5 JoJo Romero · LHP · likely available option · fresh
setup role · 23 holds · fresh by recent workload
Platoon: selected lineup 0.675 OPS vs LHP · 11/11 hitters · reliable sample
Pitch mix: Fastball, Slider/Sweeper, Changeup · lineup coverage partial
Direct lineup BvP: 13 PA · 2 K / 0 BB / 0 HR · tiny sample
Top Tampa Bay Rays Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Top Milwaukee Brewers Advantages

Hottest bats in the lineup over the last two weeks.

No recent form data available.

Pitcher Notes

Quick green flags or red flags based on each starter's season numbers.

Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays)
  • Elite ERA (2.67) — strong run prevention
  • Above-average K rate (9.1 K/9)
  • Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
  • FIP (2.87) confirms elite results
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers)
  • Elite ERA (2.47) — strong run prevention
  • Elite strikeout rate (10.1 K/9)
  • Above-average K rate (10.1 K/9)
  • Sharp control (1.7 BB/9)
⚠ Data Notes
  • Recent form data missing for many hitters (0/21)
  • Pitcher pitch-family data unavailable (warehouse ETL gap)
Pitcher quality scores use ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 relative to 2026 MLB averages. Lineup scores use recent OPS (last 14 days) weighted by batting order. Confidence reflects available data — not a betting recommendation.