PardonMe Unified

TB at CIN

Sunday, September 13 · 5:00 PM

TB 20.9 CIN 24.8

CIN slight edge · CIN 59.6%

Projected total 45.6 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects CIN slight edge.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

TB 20.9 CIN 24.8

CIN · 59.6% win probability

Margin
CIN 3.9
Total
45.6

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

TB 25.6 CIN 32.9

CIN · 67.3% win probability

Margin
CIN 7.2
Total
58.5

Confidence: low · Support: 63%

As of Sep 13, 2026 16:40 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TB 18.8 CIN 26.2

CIN · 68.5% win probability

Margin
CIN 7.4
Total
44.9

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

TB

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 95%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +0.95 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.81 standardized talent

Pass rush: +1.94 standardized talent

Secondary: +1.02 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 42.8 gross yards per punt · 15 inside the 20

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: 4.4 yards per return · 19 returns

CIN

Missing offensive-line slots: LT, RT.

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 89%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.37 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.25 standardized talent

Pass rush: +1.46 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.69 standardized talent

Kicking: 14/15 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 47.4 gross yards per punt · 16 inside the 20

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: specialist history unavailable

Pass efficiency
+0.693
Rush efficiency
-0.419
Sack environment
-0.037
Drive scoring
+0.478
Red-zone TD rate
+0.187
Explosive passing
-0.015
Explosive rushing
-0.023
Starting distance to goal
-4.102
Turnover rate
-0.005

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TBWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

CINWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTBCIN
Projected points20.924.8
Win probability40.4%59.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status69 updates33 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 100 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 38 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs TB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 33.3; opponent allowed 19.0.

TB recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 18.3.