PardonMe Unified

TB at CIN

Sunday, September 13 · 12:00 PM CDT

TB 20.9 — CIN 24.8

CIN slight edge · CIN 59.6%

Projected total 45.6 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects CIN slight edge.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Joe Burrow · CIN

Attempts
31.2 mean · 31.0 median · 20.0–43.0 80%
Completions
20.8 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
217 mean · 224 median · 108–280 80%
Passing TD
1.63 mean · 79% 1+
Interceptions
0.66 mean · 48% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Baker Mayfield · TB

Attempts
32.4 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–46.0 80%
Completions
20.8 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
220 mean · 216 median · 130–351 80%
Passing TD
1.44 mean · 74% 1+
Interceptions
0.77 mean · 53% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
16.1 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Carries
11.8 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 56 median · 26–89 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 22 median · 7–44 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

Opportunities
9.6 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Carries
7.5 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 29 median · 14–62 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Bucky Irving · TB

Opportunities
15.6 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
Carries
12.8 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 49 median · 23–78 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 22 median · 11–43 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
9.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Receptions
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
72 mean · 70 median · 23–129 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 56 median · 14–84 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Andrei Iosivas · CIN · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 25 median · 0–62 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Payne Durham · TB · TE

Targets
2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 11 median · 0–43 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Cade Otton · TB · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 20 median · 0–61 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 39 median · 0–77 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 45 median · 11–90 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Jalen McMillan · TB · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 52 median · 26–91 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
Medium

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

TB 20.9 — CIN 24.8

CIN · 59.6% win probability

Margin
CIN 3.9
Total
45.6

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

TB 25.6 — CIN 32.9

CIN · 67.3% win probability

Margin
CIN 7.2
Total
58.5

Confidence: low · Support: 63%

As of Sep 13, 2026 16:40 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TB 18.8 — CIN 26.2

CIN · 68.5% win probability

Margin
CIN 7.4
Total
44.9

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

TB

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 95%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +0.95 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.81 standardized talent

Pass rush: +1.94 standardized talent

Secondary: +1.02 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 42.8 gross yards per punt · 15 inside the 20

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: 4.4 yards per return · 19 returns

CIN

Missing offensive-line slots: LT, RT.

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 89%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.37 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.25 standardized talent

Pass rush: +1.46 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.69 standardized talent

Kicking: 14/15 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 47.4 gross yards per punt · 16 inside the 20

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: specialist history unavailable

Pass efficiency
+0.693
Rush efficiency
-0.419
Sack environment
-0.037
Drive scoring
+0.478
Red-zone TD rate
+0.187
Explosive passing
-0.015
Explosive rushing
-0.023
Starting distance to goal
-4.102
Turnover rate
-0.005

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TBWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

CINWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTBCIN
Projected points20.924.8
Win probability40.4%59.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status75 updates37 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 100 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 38 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs TB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 33.3; opponent allowed 19.0.

TB recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 18.3.