Geno Smith · NYJ
- Attempts
- 31.3 mean · 29.0 median · 21.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.7 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 214 mean · 204 median · 125–288 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.48 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 51% 1+
PardonMe Unified
NYJ at TEN
Sunday, September 13 · 12:00 PM CDT
NYJ 15.9 — TEN 21.4
TEN edge · TEN 63.6%
Projected total 37.3 · Confidence: low
PardonMe projects
TEN edge.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Cam Ward · TEN
- Attempts
- 30.4 mean · 30.0 median · 19.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.4 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 194 mean · 187 median · 113–271 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.27 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.61 mean · 45% 1+
Running back ranges
Braelon Allen · NYJ
- Opportunities
- 11.5 mean · 10.0 median · 7.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 35 mean · 30 median · 19–59 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Breece Hall · NYJ
- Opportunities
- 16.3 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 14.0 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 61 mean · 59 median · 33–93 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 37% 1+
Tony Pollard · TEN
- Opportunities
- 16.4 mean · 14.0 median · 13.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.7 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–20.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 61 mean · 57 median · 35–92 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 14 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Nicholas Singleton · TEN
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 37 median · 13–78 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 17 median · 9–34 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 26 median · 0–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 38 median · 13–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 28 median · 0–70 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 8.5 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.6 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 66 mean · 71 median · 24–94 80%
- Receiving TD
- 37% 1+
Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 27 median · 13–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 25 median · 8–42 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 32 median · 0–96 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 7.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 54 mean · 54 median · 21–97 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Carnell Tate · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
13 individualized projections · 3 baseline projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
NYJ 15.9 — TEN 21.4
TEN · 63.6% win probability
- Margin
- TEN 5.6
- Total
- 37.3
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
NYJ 19.5 — TEN 24.5
TEN · 62.1% win probability
- Margin
- TEN 4.9
- Total
- 44.0
Confidence: low · Support: 68%
As of Sep 13, 2026 16:40 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
NYJ 16.7 — TEN 23.9
TEN · 66.8% win probability
- Margin
- TEN 7.2
- Total
- 40.5
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
NYJ
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 95%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: defensive front. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: +0.09 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.43 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.45 standardized talent
Kicking: 14/16 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 45.7 gross yards per punt · 18 inside the 20
Kick returns: 33.6 yards per return · 17 returns
Punt returns: 12.8 yards per return · 25 returns
TEN
Peter Skoronski unavailable · LG · Expected replacement: Garrett Dellinger
JC Latham unavailable · RT · Expected replacement: Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 83%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: +0.04 standardized talent
Pass protection: -0.61 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.96 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.14 standardized talent
Kicking: 11/13 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 45.5 gross yards per punt · 19 inside the 20
Kick returns: specialist history unavailable
Punt returns: 11.6 yards per return · 26 returns
- Pass efficiency
- +0.469
- Rush efficiency
- +0.591
- Sack environment
- -0.037
- Explosive passing
- +0.015
- Explosive rushing
- +0.030
- Turnover rate
- -0.010
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
NYJWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
TENWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points15.921.4
Win probability36.4%63.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates43 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 117 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NYJ recent scoring form vs TEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 8.0; opponent allowed 28.0.
TEN recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 35.3.
Players
NYJ
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
TEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Geno SmithNYJ · #24 · floor 6.0 · upside 22.3NYJQB#2412.86.022.3Cam WardTEN · #27 · floor 5.9 · upside 21.2TENQB#2712.55.921.2Tony PollardTEN · #17 · floor 6.0 · upside 20.6TENRB#1711.46.020.6Breece HallNYJ · #18 · floor 5.5 · upside 20.5NYJRB#1811.65.520.5Nicholas SingletonTEN · #36 · floor 2.4 · upside 19.3TENRB#368.42.419.3Braelon AllenNYJ · #49 · floor 3.4 · upside 16.0NYJRB#497.03.416.0Garrett WilsonNYJ · #6 · floor 6.5 · upside 25.1NYJWR#614.76.525.1Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · #19 · floor 4.1 · upside 20.7TENWR#1912.24.120.7Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · #45 · floor 2.3 · upside 19.6NYJWR#459.02.319.6Carnell TateTEN · #61 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1TENWR#616.82.318.1Calvin RidleyTEN · #69 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.4TENWR#697.80.016.4Adonai MitchellNYJ · #72 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.8NYJWR#727.20.016.8Daniel BellingerTEN · #28 · floor 2.3 · upside 13.0TENTE#284.72.313.0Gunnar HelmTEN · #30 · floor 1.8 · upside 13.4TENTE#305.51.813.4Mason TaylorNYJ · #37 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.4NYJTE#375.60.013.4Jeremy RuckertNYJ · #42 · floor 1.9 · upside 11.6NYJTE#425.61.911.6PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Moneylinedraftkings · 53.2%63.6%draftkings · 53.2%PardonMe is 10.3 percentage points higher
Game totaldraftkings · 38.537.3draftkings · 38.5PardonMe is 1.2 lower
Spreadbetmgm · 1.5-5.6betmgm · 1.5PardonMe is 4.1 lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Geno Smith NYJ · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 31.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 13.5 · 80% 2.9–24.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: TEN pass-rush advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Breece Hall NYJ · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 48% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 16.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 11.4 · 80% 3.5–19.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: NYJ rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 24 attempts · 10 inside 10 · 4 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 9 targets · 2 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Braelon Allen NYJ · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 10% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.4 · 80% 0.0–15.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: NYJ rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: TEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 8 targets · 3 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Garrett Wilson NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 14.2 · 80% 6.5–21.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: TEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 0.6–16.0
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: TEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jeremy Ruckert NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: TEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 3 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mason Taylor NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 66% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.6–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: TEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 8 targets · 7 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYJ converted 17/39 trips · TEN allowed 39/58 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cam Ward TEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 9% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 30.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.6 · 80% 5.9–27.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tony Pollard TEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 16.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 12.3 · 80% 4.4–20.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nicholas Singleton TEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.1–17.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Calvin Ridley TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 8.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 14.8 · 80% 7.1–22.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Carnell Tate TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Gunnar Helm TEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.5–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Daniel Bellinger TEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: TEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: TEN converted 19/34 trips · NYJ allowed 45/68 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateNYJ offense vs TEN defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentTEN pass-rush advantageNYJ allowed 10.8% · TEN generated 7.6%
Run environmentNYJ rushing-offense advantageNYJ 4.60 YPC · TEN allowed 4.30
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateTEN offense vs NYJ defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceTEN allowed 8.9% · NYJ generated 4.8%
Run environmentMixed evidenceTEN 4.20 YPC · NYJ allowed 4.40
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateNYJ pass offense vs TEN pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceNYJ 60.3% · TEN 68.9%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceNYJ 5.64 YPA · TEN 8.21 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceNYJ 3.0% · TEN 5.8%
InterceptionMixed evidenceNYJ 2.6% · TEN 1.2%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceNYJ 5.5% · TEN 11.3%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateTEN pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceTEN 59.6% · NYJ 65.2%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceTEN 5.69 YPA · NYJ 7.47 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceTEN 2.6% · NYJ 7.0%
InterceptionTEN passing-offense advantageTEN 1.4% · NYJ 0.0%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceTEN 7.2% · NYJ 11.1%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
NYJ offensive TD state2.2 expected10.6% zero · 38.9% 3+
TEN offensive TD state2.4 expected9.3% zero · 42.3% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueNissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastSupported6.4 hours before kickoff
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.4 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 5 mean · -6–14 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 2.6 mean · 1.0–6.0 80%Net yards 13 mean · 2–37 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
TEN
88 current depth players
63 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
NYJ
85 current depth players
54 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 976bc86d3d5eb25fe44f3b8daca94aaed1e17a72eb530227fdb75339df83e4e8
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): LOW