PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
BAL 21.3 — IND 21.0
BAL · 50.9% win probability
- Margin
- BAL 0.4
- Total
- 42.3
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
PardonMe Unified
BAL at IND
Sunday, September 13 · 5:00 PM
BAL 21.3 — IND 21.0
Nearly even · BAL 50.9%
Projected total 42.3 · Confidence: low
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
BAL 24.1 — IND 27.5
IND · 58.3% win probability
- Margin
- IND 3.4
- Total
- 51.6
Confidence: low · Support: 62%
As of Sep 13, 2026 16:40 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
BAL 23.8 — IND 23.4
BAL · 55.3% win probability
- Margin
- BAL 0.4
- Total
- 47.1
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
BAL
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 100%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: linebackers. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: +2.01 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.30 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.78 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.94 standardized talent
Kicking: 14/16 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: specialist history unavailable
Kick returns: specialist history unavailable
Punt returns: 5.8 yards per return · 15 returns
IND
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 97%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: linebackers. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: +0.58 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.75 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.77 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.82 standardized talent
Kicking: specialist history unavailable
Punting: 47.7 gross yards per punt · 13 inside the 20
Kick returns: 32.6 yards per return · 15 returns
Punt returns: specialist history unavailable
- Pass efficiency
- -0.663
- Rush efficiency
- -0.807
- Sack environment
- -0.014
- Drive scoring
- -0.307
- Red-zone TD rate
- -0.013
- Explosive passing
- -0.007
- Explosive rushing
- -0.017
- Starting distance to goal
- -0.384
- Turnover rate
- +0.002
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
BALWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
INDWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.321.0
Win probability50.9%49.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status42 updates15 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 90 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 36 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
BAL recent scoring form vs IND prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 36.3.
IND recent scoring form vs BAL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 24.7; opponent allowed 26.0.
Players
BAL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
IND
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Lamar Jackson · BAL
- Attempts
- 27.4 mean · 29.0 median · 12.0–39.0 80%
- Completions
- 17.3 mean · 17.0 median · 8.0–25.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 206 mean · 203 median · 124–289 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.15 mean · 66% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.63 mean · 45% 1+
Daniel Jones · IND
- Attempts
- 30.9 mean · 29.0 median · 24.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.2 mean · 19.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 229 mean · 219 median · 156–323 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.59 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.68 mean · 49% 1+
Running back ranges
Derrick Henry · BAL
- Opportunities
- 20.7 mean · 21.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
- Carries
- 19.0 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 95 mean · 94 median · 46–144 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
- Total TD
- 52% 1+
Justice Hill · BAL
- Opportunities
- 8.7 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
- Carries
- 5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 26 mean · 19 median · 9–50 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 7–45 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
DJ Giddens · IND
- Opportunities
- 7.9 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 28 mean · 22 median · 7–61 80%
- Receptions
- 0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 6 mean · 6 median · 0–16 80%
- Total TD
- 20% 1+
Jonathan Taylor · IND
- Opportunities
- 20.2 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–29.0 80%
- Carries
- 17.2 mean · 17.0 median · 10.0–25.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 80 mean · 73 median · 40–128 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–36 80%
- Total TD
- 50% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Mark Andrews · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 4.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 30 mean · 27 median · 9–46 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Durham Smythe · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 8 median · 0–16 80%
- Receiving TD
- 8% 1+
Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 25 median · 13–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Zay Flowers · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 7.5 mean · 7.0 median · 6.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 73 mean · 71 median · 42–113 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
Devontez Walker · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 33 median · 17–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 19 median · 10–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Tyler Warren · IND · TE
- Targets
- 6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 39 median · 19–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Josh Downs · IND · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 32 median · 11–63 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Ashton Dulin · IND · WR
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 17 median · 0–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 10% 1+
Alec Pierce · IND · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 40 median · 0–120 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Daniel JonesIND · #9 · floor 7.8 · upside 24.6INDQB#915.17.824.6Lamar JacksonBAL · #23 · floor 6.8 · upside 21.8BALQB#2313.16.821.8Jonathan TaylorIND · #3 · floor 7.0 · upside 27.9INDRB#315.47.027.9Derrick HenryBAL · #4 · floor 6.5 · upside 27.5BALRB#415.56.527.5Justice HillBAL · #35 · floor 3.6 · upside 18.1BALRB#358.03.618.1DJ GiddensIND · #59 · floor 0.8 · upside 13.3INDRB#593.90.813.3Zay FlowersBAL · #8 · floor 7.2 · upside 24.1BALWR#814.57.224.1Alec PierceIND · #46 · floor 0.0 · upside 21.0INDWR#469.00.021.0Josh DownsIND · #51 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.3INDWR#518.22.116.3Devontez WalkerBAL · #78 · floor 2.7 · upside 14.0BALWR#785.32.714.0Rashod BatemanBAL · #86 · floor 2.3 · upside 12.8BALWR#864.52.312.8Ashton DulinIND · #92 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.7INDWR#922.70.08.7Tyler WarrenIND · #9 · floor 3.9 · upside 17.8INDTE#99.93.917.8Mark AndrewsBAL · #24 · floor 3.8 · upside 13.7BALTE#247.73.813.7Mo Alie-CoxIND · #50 · floor 2.0 · upside 9.9INDTE#503.92.09.9Durham SmytheBAL · #63 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.0BALTE#631.80.06.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Moneylinebetmgm · 37.4%49.1%betmgm · 37.4%PardonMe is 11.6 percentage points higher
Spreadbetmgm · -3.50.4betmgm · -3.5PardonMe is 3.1 lower
Game totalbetrivers · 48.042.3betrivers · 48.0PardonMe is 5.7 lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Lamar Jackson BAL · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 27.8 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.9 · 80% 7.2–28.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Derrick Henry BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 71% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 21.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 16.5 · 80% 8.6–24.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BAL passing-offense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justice Hill BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.6 · 80% 0.0–15.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BAL passing-offense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–13.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Zay Flowers BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.9 · 80% 6.2–21.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Devontez Walker BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.2 · 80% 0.0–12.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mark Andrews BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 59% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 2.4–14.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Durham Smythe BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 1.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.7 · 80% 0.0–9.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: BAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: IND pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: BAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BAL converted 28/59 trips · IND allowed 36/64 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Daniel Jones IND · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 30.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 19.0 · 80% 8.4–29.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: IND pass-protection advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonathan Taylor IND · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 20.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 16.1 · 80% 8.2–24.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: IND passing-offense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 70 attempts · 39 inside 10 · 23 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 4 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
DJ Giddens IND · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 31% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–13.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: IND passing-offense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 5 attempts · 1 inside 10 · 1 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 0 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Josh Downs IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.1 · 80% 2.4–17.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: IND pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 10 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ashton Dulin IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 37% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: IND pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Alec Pierce IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 4.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.2–16.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: IND pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 9 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyler Warren IND · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 82% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.8 · 80% 3.6–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: IND pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 21 targets · 11 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mo Alie-Cox IND · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.0 · 80% 0.0–11.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: IND passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: BAL pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: IND pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 6 targets · 5 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: IND converted 44/66 trips · BAL allowed 32/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateBAL offense vs IND defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceBAL allowed 9.6% · IND generated 5.9%
Run environmentMixed evidenceBAL 5.25 YPC · IND allowed 3.87
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateIND offense vs BAL defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentIND pass-protection advantageIND allowed 5.0% · BAL generated 4.6%
Run environmentMixed evidenceIND 4.54 YPC · BAL allowed 4.18
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateBAL pass offense vs IND pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceBAL 65.9% · IND 63.3%
Yards / attemptBAL passing-offense advantageBAL 7.77 YPA · IND 7.12 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceBAL 5.5% · IND 3.8%
InterceptionIND pass-defense advantageBAL 2.6% · IND 2.2%
20+ yard passBAL passing-offense advantageBAL 10.2% · IND 9.1%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateIND pass offense vs BAL pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceIND 65.8% · BAL 63.8%
Yards / attemptIND passing-offense advantageIND 7.47 YPA · BAL 7.04 YPA
Pass TDBAL pass-defense advantageIND 4.6% · BAL 3.7%
InterceptionMixed evidenceIND 2.6% · BAL 1.8%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceIND 8.0% · BAL 10.2%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
BAL offensive TD state2.5 expected8.5% zero · 44.9% 3+
IND offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueLucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
Roof typeRetractable
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastExterior Supported6.4 hours before kickoff
Retractable roof state Unknown; supported exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.1 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 21 mean · 7–43 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 3.3 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 13 mean · 1–53 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
IND
77 current depth players
52 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
BAL
74 current depth players
38 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 03a63dadf30f09b082f8946d873c7d2f4cbe6698ef8e256f8158dcb3585e512c
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): LOW