PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
ATL 20.6 — PIT 21.7
PIT · 52.8% win probability
- Margin
- PIT 1.1
- Total
- 42.3
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
PardonMe Unified
ATL at PIT
Sunday, September 13 · 5:00 PM
ATL 20.6 — PIT 21.7
Nearly even · PIT 52.8%
Projected total 42.3 · Confidence: low
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
ATL 20.8 — PIT 23.4
PIT · 56.5% win probability
- Margin
- PIT 2.6
- Total
- 44.1
Confidence: low · Support: 59%
As of Sep 13, 2026 16:41 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
ATL 21.2 — PIT 22.7
PIT · 50.1% win probability
- Margin
- PIT 1.5
- Total
- 43.9
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa unavailable · QB · Expected replacement: Cooper Rush
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 73%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: QB. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
Pass protection: +0.70 standardized talent
Pass rush: -0.37 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.07 standardized talent
Kicking: 11/12 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 46.9 gross yards per punt · 9 inside the 20
Kick returns: specialist history unavailable
Punt returns: 4.6 yards per return · 23 returns
PIT
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 82%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: +0.07 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.45 standardized talent
Pass rush: +1.09 standardized talent
Secondary: +1.05 standardized talent
Kicking: 10/12 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 46.9 gross yards per punt · 12 inside the 20
Kick returns: specialist history unavailable
Punt returns: specialist history unavailable
- Pass efficiency
- -0.357
- Rush efficiency
- -0.061
- Sack environment
- +0.014
- Explosive passing
- -0.006
- Explosive rushing
- -0.003
- Turnover rate
- -0.005
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
ATLWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PITWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points20.621.7
Win probability47.2%52.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status19 updates66 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 111 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 30 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
ATL recent scoring form vs PIT prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 24.0; opponent allowed 20.3.
PIT recent scoring form vs ATL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 20.0.
Players
ATL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
PIT
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Michael Penix Jr. · ATL
- Attempts
- 30.4 mean · 31.0 median · 20.0–38.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.2 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 218 mean · 221 median · 135–313 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.20 mean · 68% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.63 mean · 47% 1+
Aaron Rodgers · PIT
- Attempts
- 32.1 mean · 33.0 median · 20.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.7 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 214 mean · 216 median · 116–288 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.12 mean · 66% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Running back ranges
Bijan Robinson · ATL
- Opportunities
- 20.8 mean · 22.0 median · 12.0–30.0 80%
- Carries
- 15.6 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–23.0 80%
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 71 mean · 70 median · 33–109 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 30 median · 8–59 80%
- Total TD
- 46% 1+
Eli Heidenreich · PIT
- Opportunities
- 12.4 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 38 median · 13–78 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–32 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Jaylen Warren · PIT
- Opportunities
- 15.3 mean · 16.0 median · 11.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.7 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 59 mean · 56 median · 33–89 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 14 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 40% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 43 median · 0–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 16 median · 8–24 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 27 median · 0–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Drake London · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 62 mean · 67 median · 13–121 80%
- Receiving TD
- 33% 1+
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 27 median · 9–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 48 median · 24–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Darnell Washington · PIT · TE
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 23 median · 11–57 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
DK Metcalf · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 6.5 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 56 mean · 57 median · 14–100 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 40 median · 10–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Roman Wilson · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 30 mean · 27 median · 13–53 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Michael Penix Jr.ATL · #28 · floor 6.0 · upside 20.7ATLQB#2812.36.020.7Aaron RodgersPIT · #31 · floor 5.7 · upside 20.4PITQB#3112.25.720.4Bijan RobinsonATL · #2 · floor 7.7 · upside 29.8ATLRB#217.57.729.8Jaylen WarrenPIT · #16 · floor 5.9 · upside 20.6PITRB#1611.75.920.6Eli HeidenreichPIT · #34 · floor 2.4 · upside 19.4PITRB#348.52.419.4Drake LondonATL · #13 · floor 2.3 · upside 26.0ATLWR#1311.72.326.0DK MetcalfPIT · #27 · floor 4.9 · upside 20.6PITWR#2710.94.920.6Michael Pittman Jr.PIT · #43 · floor 2.0 · upside 20.0PITWR#438.02.020.0Roman WilsonPIT · #82 · floor 2.3 · upside 13.0PITWR#824.72.313.0Olamide ZaccheausATL · #84 · floor 1.9 · upside 13.3ATLWR#845.71.913.3Jahan DotsonATL · #90 · floor 2.4 · upside 13.1ATLWR#904.72.413.1Pat FreiermuthPIT · #11 · floor 4.4 · upside 17.0PITTE#118.84.417.0Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL · #16 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.5ATLTE#168.30.018.5Darnell WashingtonPIT · #32 · floor 2.1 · upside 12.4PITTE#326.42.112.4Charlie WoernerATL · #52 · floor 1.8 · upside 9.6ATLTE#523.61.89.6PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Spreadbetmgm · 3.5-1.1betmgm · 3.5PardonMe is 2.4 higher
Game totalbetonlineag · 42.042.3betonlineag · 42.0PardonMe is 0.3 higher
Moneylinebetrivers · 61.2%52.8%betrivers · 61.2%PardonMe is 8.4 percentage points lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Michael Penix Jr. ATL · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.0 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.8 · 80% 4.1–25.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Bijan Robinson ATL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 84% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 20.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 18.0 · 80% 10.1–25.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 35 attempts · 17 inside 10 · 10 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 13 targets · 9 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahan Dotson ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–13.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drake London ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 94% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.0 · 80% 5.3–20.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 9 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 20% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.1 · 80% 0.0–14.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.1 · 80% 3.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 12 targets · 7 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Woerner ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 6% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: PIT pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ATL converted 31/51 trips · PIT allowed 29/54 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Aaron Rodgers PIT · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.0 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.1 · 80% 5.5–26.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: 79 attempts · 47 completions · Prior red-zone rushing: 3 attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Warren PIT · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 14.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 11.8 · 80% 3.9–19.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 40 attempts · 22 inside 10 · 14 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 5 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eli Heidenreich PIT · RB
- Current role
- RB5
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
DK Metcalf PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 86% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.1 · 80% 4.4–19.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 13 targets · 8 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 6.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.4 · 80% 3.8–19.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 8 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Roman Wilson PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.0–14.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 0 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Pat Freiermuth PIT · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.5 · 80% 1.3–13.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 9 targets · 5 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Darnell Washington PIT · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PIT passing-offense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 8 targets · 6 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PIT converted 30/50 trips · ATL allowed 28/53 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateATL offense vs PIT defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceATL allowed 4.6% · PIT generated 7.3%
Run environmentMixed evidenceATL 4.48 YPC · PIT allowed 4.26
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregatePIT offense vs ATL defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidencePIT allowed 5.3% · ATL generated 9.7%
Run environmentMixed evidencePIT 4.31 YPC · ATL allowed 4.61
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateATL pass offense vs PIT pass defense
CompletionPIT pass-defense advantageATL 60.9% · PIT 64.6%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceATL 6.79 YPA · PIT 7.24 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceATL 3.5% · PIT 4.9%
InterceptionMixed evidenceATL 1.5% · PIT 2.4%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceATL 8.6% · PIT 8.6%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregatePIT pass offense vs ATL pass defense
CompletionMixed evidencePIT 66.4% · ATL 62.6%
Yards / attemptMixed evidencePIT 6.60 YPA · ATL 7.13 YPA
Pass TDPIT passing-offense advantagePIT 4.7% · ATL 5.1%
InterceptionMixed evidencePIT 1.6% · ATL 3.0%
20+ yard passMixed evidencePIT 7.5% · ATL 9.3%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
ATL offensive TD state2.2 expected10.9% zero · 38.3% 3+
PIT offensive TD state2.3 expected9.8% zero · 40.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueAcrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastSupported6.4 hours before kickoff
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 1.9 mean · 1.0–4.0 80%Net yards 6 mean · -1–19 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 2.1 mean · 1.0–3.0 80%Net yards 8 mean · 0–40 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
PIT
81 current depth players
47 with prior usage context
12 prior high-snap players
ATL
87 current depth players
64 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature fe8fe2196e8851cb1c692f674408982ffba04de76fcbb179f515b3be9fda4562
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): LOW