PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
CLE 14.0 — JAX 27.3
JAX · 79.1% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 13.3
- Total
- 41.4
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
PardonMe Unified
CLE at JAX
Sunday, September 13 · 5:00 PM
CLE 14.0 — JAX 27.3
JAX clear edge · JAX 79.1%
Projected total 41.4 · Confidence: moderate
PardonMe projects
JAX clear edge.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
CLE 16.3 — JAX 28.3
JAX · 76.9% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 12.0
- Total
- 44.6
Confidence: low · Support: 65%
As of Sep 13, 2026 16:41 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CLE 17.9 — JAX 26.7
JAX · 71.1% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 8.8
- Total
- 44.7
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
CLE
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 81%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: defensive front, linebackers. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: -0.10 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.94 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.93 standardized talent
Kicking: 14/14 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 44.5 gross yards per punt · 7 inside the 20
Kick returns: 23.4 yards per return · 21 returns
Punt returns: specialist history unavailable
JAX
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 87%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: +0.58 standardized talent
Pass protection: -0.14 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.73 standardized talent
Secondary: -0.13 standardized talent
Kicking: 14/14 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 48.7 gross yards per punt · 11 inside the 20
Kick returns: 29.3 yards per return · 18 returns
Punt returns: 8.5 yards per return · 20 returns
- Pass efficiency
- +1.247
- Rush efficiency
- +0.500
- Sack environment
- -0.006
- Explosive passing
- +0.029
- Explosive rushing
- +0.001
- Turnover rate
- -0.014
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CLEWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
JAXWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points14.027.3
Win probability20.9%79.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates6 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 93 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 26 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
JAX recent scoring form vs CLE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 32.7; opponent allowed 15.7.
CLE recent scoring form vs JAX prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 14.7.
Players
CLE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
JAX
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Deshaun Watson · CLE
- Attempts
- 33.3 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.2 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 209 mean · 201 median · 129–293 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.24 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.71 mean · 51% 1+
Trevor Lawrence · JAX
- Attempts
- 32.2 mean · 31.0 median · 23.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.7 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 247 mean · 257 median · 160–339 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.96 mean · 85% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.70 mean · 50% 1+
Running back ranges
Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- Opportunities
- 15.1 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 43 median · 22–74 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 10 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 35% 1+
Dylan Sampson · CLE
- Opportunities
- 10.0 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 23 mean · 19 median · 7–45 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 16 median · 0–44 80%
- Total TD
- 26% 1+
Ameer Abdullah · JAX
- Opportunities
- 6.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
- Carries
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 18 mean · 12 median · 0–44 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 8 median · 0–35 80%
- Total TD
- 17% 1+
Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX
- Opportunities
- 11.8 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.9 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 45 median · 21–78 80%
- Receptions
- 0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 6 mean · 6 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 51 mean · 52 median · 21–93 80%
- Receiving TD
- 34% 1+
Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 9 median · 0–19 80%
- Receiving TD
- 8% 1+
Denzel Boston · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
KC Concepcion · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 35 median · 12–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 21 median · 0–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Brenton Strange · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 46 median · 11–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 7.2 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 54 mean · 55 median · 22–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 51 mean · 44 median · 15–87 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Parker Washington · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 6.2 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 57 mean · 58 median · 15–102 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
12 individualized projections · 4 baseline projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Trevor LawrenceJAX · #1 · floor 10.6 · upside 28.2JAXQB#118.510.628.2Deshaun WatsonCLE · #20 · floor 7.9 · upside 22.2CLEQB#2014.07.922.2Quinshon JudkinsCLE · #30 · floor 3.5 · upside 18.7CLERB#309.33.518.7Dylan SampsonCLE · #42 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.0CLERB#427.32.318.0Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · #46 · floor 2.7 · upside 16.5JAXRB#467.62.716.5Ameer AbdullahJAX · #56 · floor 0.3 · upside 15.6JAXRB#564.00.315.6Jakobi MeyersJAX · #18 · floor 6.3 · upside 20.7JAXWR#1812.36.320.7Parker WashingtonJAX · #24 · floor 2.5 · upside 22.2JAXWR#2410.92.522.2Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · #44 · floor 2.5 · upside 17.2JAXWR#449.82.517.2Denzel BostonCLE · #62 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1CLEWR#626.82.318.1KC ConcepcionCLE · #63 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1CLEWR#636.82.318.1Jerry JeudyCLE · #66 · floor 2.2 · upside 16.9CLEWR#666.52.216.9Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · #3 · floor 4.1 · upside 22.4CLETE#312.14.122.4Brenton StrangeJAX · #14 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.7JAXTE#148.62.116.7Nate BoerkircherJAX · #34 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.2JAXTE#344.10.014.2Blake WhiteheartCLE · #64 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.0CLETE#641.90.06.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Moneylinedraftkings · 78.7%79.1%draftkings · 78.7%PardonMe is 0.4 percentage points higher
Spreadbetrivers · 8.5-13.3betrivers · 8.5PardonMe is 4.8 lower
Game totalbetrivers · 40.541.4betrivers · 40.5PardonMe is 0.9 higher
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.0 · 80% 4.3–25.7
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quinshon Judkins CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 15.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 11.2 · 80% 3.3–19.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: JAX run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: JAX pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dylan Sampson CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 50% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 9.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.7 · 80% 0.0–15.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: JAX run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: JAX pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Denzel Boston CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
KC Concepcion CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jerry Jeudy CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.8–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 13.8 · 80% 7.6–20.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Blake Whiteheart CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 65% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.1 · 80% 0.0–9.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: JAX pass-defense advantage · YPA: JAX pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: JAX pass-defense advantage · Interception: JAX pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: JAX pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: CLE converted 20/40 trips · JAX allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 20.7 · 80% 10.0–31.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: CLE pass-rush advantage · Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: CLE run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ameer Abdullah JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 12% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 6.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–13.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: CLE run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 96% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.4 · 80% 4.7–20.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: CLE pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 77% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.7 · 80% 3.0–18.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: CLE pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Parker Washington JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 71% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.6 · 80% 3.9–19.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: CLE pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brenton Strange JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 2.3–14.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: CLE pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nate Boerkircher JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.6 · 80% 0.4–12.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: CLE pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: JAX passing-offense advantage · Interception: CLE pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: CLE pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: JAX converted 43/68 trips · CLE allowed 28/48 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateCLE offense vs JAX defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceCLE allowed 8.4% · JAX generated 4.8%
Run environmentJAX run-defense advantageCLE 3.92 YPC · JAX allowed 3.94
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateJAX offense vs CLE defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentCLE pass-rush advantageJAX allowed 6.8% · CLE generated 9.8%
Run environmentCLE run-defense advantageJAX 4.00 YPC · CLE allowed 4.17
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateCLE pass offense vs JAX pass defense
CompletionJAX pass-defense advantageCLE 57.9% · JAX 62.4%
Yards / attemptJAX pass-defense advantageCLE 5.65 YPA · JAX 6.19 YPA
Pass TDJAX pass-defense advantageCLE 2.9% · JAX 3.9%
InterceptionJAX pass-defense advantageCLE 3.2% · JAX 3.5%
20+ yard passJAX pass-defense advantageCLE 6.3% · JAX 7.2%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateJAX pass offense vs CLE pass defense
CompletionCLE pass-defense advantageJAX 61.1% · CLE 63.2%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceJAX 7.15 YPA · CLE 6.61 YPA
Pass TDJAX passing-offense advantageJAX 5.2% · CLE 5.1%
InterceptionCLE pass-defense advantageJAX 2.1% · CLE 2.3%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceJAX 10.1% · CLE 8.8%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CLE offensive TD state2.0 expected13.6% zero · 32.2% 3+
JAX offensive TD state2.6 expected7.3% zero · 48.7% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueEverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastSupported6.4 hours before kickoff
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.0 mean · 3.0–8.0 80%Net yards 26 mean · 14–39 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 4.7 mean · 2.0–8.0 80%Net yards 23 mean · 9–51 80%Rush TD 7% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
JAX
86 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
16 prior high-snap players
CLE
64 current depth players
40 with prior usage context
10 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature e7c8d3f6e56e2682fb923d270d669a9a2c95ee202af8444c3f1ba4be4091b4fe
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): MEDIUM