PardonMe Unified

BUF at HOU

Sunday, September 13 · 5:00 PM

BUF 22.0 — HOU 22.3

Nearly even · HOU 50.8%

Projected total 44.4 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

BUF 22.0 — HOU 22.3

HOU · 50.8% win probability

Margin: HOU 0.3
Total: 44.4

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

BUF 23.9 — HOU 29.4

HOU · 63.3% win probability

Margin: HOU 5.5
Total: 53.4

Confidence: low · Support: 50%

As of Sep 13, 2026 16:41 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BUF 21.3 — HOU 24.0

HOU · 53.9% win probability

Margin: HOU 2.7
Total: 45.4

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

BUF

T.J. Sanders unavailable · DL · Expected replacement: Not established

Unresolved depth: DL.

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 88%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: RB, defensive front. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

QB talent: +1.59 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.46 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.41 standardized talent

Kicking: 9/11 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: specialist history unavailable

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: 6.7 yards per return · 24 returns

HOU

Missing offensive-line slots: LT, RG, RT.

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 50%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: QB, RB, linebackers, secondary. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

Pass protection: +0.44 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.63 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: specialist history unavailable

Kick returns: 24.6 yards per return · 15 returns

Punt returns: specialist history unavailable

Pass efficiency: -0.361
Rush efficiency: -0.421
Sack environment: -0.042
Drive scoring: -0.096
Red-zone TD rate: -0.048
Explosive passing: -0.038
Explosive rushing: -0.001
Starting distance to goal: -4.047
Turnover rate: -0.009

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BUFWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HOUWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBUFHOU

Projected points22.022.3

Win probability49.2%50.8%

Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet

Current status49 updates36 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 94 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 35 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

HOU recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 13.7.

BUF recent scoring form vs HOU prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 22.3.

Advanced player detail →

Josh Allen BUF · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 28.3 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 21.1 · 80% 10.5–31.8
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: HOU pass-rush advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

James Cook III BUF · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 64% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 18.8 opportunities
Full-PPR: 14.1 · 80% 6.2–22.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Ray Davis BUF · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 35% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 7.2 opportunities
Full-PPR: 5.5 · 80% 0.0–13.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Keon Coleman BUF · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 45% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.0 targets
Full-PPR: 8.3 · 80% 0.6–16.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

DJ Moore BUF · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 72% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 5.4 targets
Full-PPR: 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Khalil Shakir BUF · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 64% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.1 targets
Full-PPR: 10.7 · 80% 3.1–18.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Dalton Kincaid BUF · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 49% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.2 targets
Full-PPR: 7.5 · 80% 1.3–13.7
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Dawson Knox BUF · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 64% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.0 targets
Full-PPR: 7.1 · 80% 0.9–13.3
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown

C.J. Stroud HOU · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 28.9 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 17.9 · 80% 7.2–28.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

David Montgomery HOU · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 42% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 11.1 opportunities
Full-PPR: 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.9
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BUF pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Woody Marks HOU · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 68% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 14.5 opportunities
Full-PPR: 10.5 · 80% 2.6–18.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BUF pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Nico Collins HOU · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 56% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.8 targets
Full-PPR: 12.4 · 80% 4.7–20.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Josh Kelly HOU · WR

Current role: WR3
Prior usage: Unknown
Availability: Practice squad
Projected workload: 5.2 targets
Full-PPR: 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
Projection basis: Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jared Wayne HOU · WR

Current role: WR3
Prior usage: 44% offense
Availability: Practice squad
Projected workload: 5.2 targets
Full-PPR: 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Dalton Schultz HOU · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 16% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.0 targets
Full-PPR: 9.3 · 80% 3.0–15.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Foster Moreau HOU · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 28% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 2.5 targets
Full-PPR: 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Team matchups

Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.

Directional team environment

BUF offense vs HOU defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentHOU pass-rush advantageBUF allowed 7.5% · HOU generated 8.0%

Run environmentMixed evidenceBUF 4.96 YPC · HOU allowed 3.98

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Directional team environment

HOU offense vs BUF defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentMixed evidenceHOU allowed 5.1% · BUF generated 7.2%

Run environmentMixed evidenceHOU 3.90 YPC · BUF allowed 5.14

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Passing environment

Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.

Directional passing environment

BUF pass offense vs HOU pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionMixed evidenceBUF 69.5% · HOU 59.3%

Yards / attemptMixed evidenceBUF 8.04 YPA · HOU 6.48 YPA

Pass TDMixed evidenceBUF 5.9% · HOU 3.7%

InterceptionMixed evidenceBUF 2.0% · HOU 3.5%

20+ yard passMixed evidenceBUF 12.3% · HOU 8.7%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Directional passing environment

HOU pass offense vs BUF pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 62.5% · BUF 59.7%

Yards / attemptBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 6.80 YPA · BUF 6.24 YPA

Pass TDBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 4.1% · BUF 4.1%

InterceptionMixed evidenceHOU 1.5% · BUF 2.8%

20+ yard passBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 8.2% · BUF 8.2%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Touchdown connections

These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.

BUF offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+

HOU offensive TD state2.2 expected10.6% zero · 38.9% 3+

Nico Collins + C.J. StroudNico Collins anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TDBoth events 22.7% · independent 16.8%

Josh Allen + DJ MooreJosh Allen passing TD + DJ Moore anytime TDBoth events 25.3% · independent 19.6%

Dalton Schultz + C.J. StroudDalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TDBoth events 19.9% · independent 14.7%

Josh Allen + Keon ColemanJosh Allen passing TD + Keon Coleman anytime TDBoth events 23.0% · independent 17.8%

C.J. Stroud + Jared WayneC.J. Stroud passing TD + Jared Wayne anytime TDBoth events 19.5% · independent 14.4%

Josh Kelly + C.J. StroudJosh Kelly anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TDBoth events 19.1% · independent 14.1%

Explore touchdown connections

Weather & venue

VenueNRG Stadium · Houston, TX

Roof typeRetractable

Playing surfaceArtificial Turf

ForecastExterior Supported6.4 hours before kickoff

Retractable roof state Unknown; supported exterior weather is not gameplay weather.

Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.

Madden talent context

Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.

BUF · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

BUF · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

HOU · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

Unit matchup indexes

BUF vs HOUol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

BUF vs HOUol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

BUF vs HOUqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

BUF vs HOUreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

HOU vs BUFol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

HOU vs BUFol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

HOU vs BUFqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

HOU vs BUFreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

Quarterback rushing ranges

Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.

Josh Allen · BUF

Attempts 6.1 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 32 mean · 15–69 80%Rush TD 8% 1+

C.J. Stroud · HOU

Attempts 3.5 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 9 mean · 0–30 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Depth and status detail

Current depthBoth teams available

AvailabilityNot yet required

Practice report timingNot yet required

WeatherNot yet available

Completeness notes

2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
2026 Same Season History Unavailable
Not yet required
Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
Weather Forecast Not Yet Available

Team role detail

HOU

65 current depth players

45 with prior usage context

18 prior high-snap players

BUF

63 current depth players

49 with prior usage context

17 prior high-snap players

Sources & methodology

Projection snapshots

Feature 2d0cf555255d4fcea76ccc6b821783373664ae1eb07199d144119d564dd4b3a0
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527

Serving contracts used

Game projection: nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)
Player context: nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)
Forward fantasy: nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')
Market comparisons: nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)
Unit and passing context: nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving

Current support states

Depth support: Both teams available
Availability support: Not yet required
Weather support: Not yet available
Projection confidence (technical): LOW

BUF at HOU

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Full Football

P5 V4 baseline

BUF

HOU

Expected lineup & depth

Overview

Matchup context

Players

BUF

HOU

Quarterback ranges

Josh Allen · BUF

C.J. Stroud · HOU

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Ray Davis · BUF

Woody Marks · HOU

David Montgomery · HOU

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Foster Moreau · HOU · TE

Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE

Nico Collins · HOU · WR

Josh Kelly · HOU · WR

Jared Wayne · HOU · WR

Fantasy

Game projections

PardonMe vs the Odds

Player props

More

Josh Allen BUF · QB

James Cook III BUF · RB

Ray Davis BUF · RB

Keon Coleman BUF · WR

DJ Moore BUF · WR

Khalil Shakir BUF · WR

Dalton Kincaid BUF · TE

Dawson Knox BUF · TE

C.J. Stroud HOU · QB

David Montgomery HOU · RB

Woody Marks HOU · RB

Nico Collins HOU · WR

Josh Kelly HOU · WR

Jared Wayne HOU · WR

Dalton Schultz HOU · TE

Foster Moreau HOU · TE

Team matchups

BUF offense vs HOU defense

HOU offense vs BUF defense

Passing environment

BUF pass offense vs HOU pass defense

HOU pass offense vs BUF pass defense

Touchdown connections

Weather & venue

Madden talent context

Unit matchup indexes

Quarterback rushing ranges

Depth and status detail

Team role detail

HOU

BUF

Sources & methodology

Build Selection