Josh Allen · BUF
- Attempts
- 28.7 mean · 28.0 median · 19.0–38.0 80%
- Completions
- 18.9 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 213 mean · 231 median · 114–296 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.36 mean · 73% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.64 mean · 47% 1+
PardonMe Unified
BUF at HOU
Sunday, September 13 · 12:00 PM CDT
BUF 22.0 — HOU 22.3
Nearly even · HOU 50.8%
Projected total 44.4 · Confidence: low
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
C.J. Stroud · HOU
- Attempts
- 28.6 mean · 27.0 median · 19.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 18.2 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 201 mean · 209 median · 135–285 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.21 mean · 68% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.62 mean · 45% 1+
Running back ranges
James Cook III · BUF
- Opportunities
- 18.8 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–27.0 80%
- Carries
- 16.6 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 81 mean · 75 median · 42–128 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 44% 1+
Ray Davis · BUF
- Opportunities
- 7.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 25 mean · 17 median · 4–59 80%
- Receptions
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–20 80%
- Total TD
- 19% 1+
Woody Marks · HOU
- Opportunities
- 14.8 mean · 14.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 46 median · 21–77 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
David Montgomery · HOU
- Opportunities
- 10.9 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.0 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 34 median · 17–67 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 41 median · 14–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Dawson Knox · BUF · TE
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 35 median · 12–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Keon Coleman · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 33 median · 11–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
DJ Moore · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 43 median · 14–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 40 median · 20–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Foster Moreau · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 22 median · 11–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 29 median · 10–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Nico Collins · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 6.5 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 63 mean · 63 median · 16–111 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Josh Kelly · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jared Wayne · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 36 median · 12–73 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
BUF 22.0 — HOU 22.3
HOU · 50.8% win probability
- Margin
- HOU 0.3
- Total
- 44.4
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
BUF 23.9 — HOU 29.4
HOU · 63.3% win probability
- Margin
- HOU 5.5
- Total
- 53.4
Confidence: low · Support: 50%
As of Sep 13, 2026 16:41 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
BUF 21.3 — HOU 24.0
HOU · 53.9% win probability
- Margin
- HOU 2.7
- Total
- 45.4
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
BUF
T.J. Sanders unavailable · DL · Expected replacement: Not established
Unresolved depth: DL.
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 88%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: RB, defensive front. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: +1.59 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.46 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.41 standardized talent
Kicking: 9/11 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: specialist history unavailable
Kick returns: specialist history unavailable
Punt returns: 6.7 yards per return · 24 returns
HOU
Missing offensive-line slots: LT, RG, RT.
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 50%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: QB, RB, linebackers, secondary. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
Pass protection: +0.44 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.63 standardized talent
Kicking: specialist history unavailable
Punting: specialist history unavailable
Kick returns: 24.6 yards per return · 15 returns
Punt returns: specialist history unavailable
- Pass efficiency
- -0.361
- Rush efficiency
- -0.421
- Sack environment
- -0.042
- Drive scoring
- -0.096
- Red-zone TD rate
- -0.048
- Explosive passing
- -0.038
- Explosive rushing
- -0.001
- Starting distance to goal
- -4.047
- Turnover rate
- -0.009
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
BUFWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
HOUWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points22.022.3
Win probability49.2%50.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates49 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 94 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 35 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
HOU recent scoring form vs BUF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 13.7.
BUF recent scoring form vs HOU prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 22.3.
Players
BUF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
HOU
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Josh AllenBUF · #5 · floor 8.3 · upside 25.1BUFQB#515.68.325.1C.J. StroudHOU · #30 · floor 5.9 · upside 20.4HOUQB#3012.25.920.4James Cook IIIBUF · #8 · floor 6.7 · upside 24.8BUFRB#813.86.724.8Woody MarksHOU · #31 · floor 3.5 · upside 18.0HOURB#318.93.518.0David MontgomeryHOU · #47 · floor 2.8 · upside 16.5HOURB#477.52.816.5Ray DavisBUF · #60 · floor 0.5 · upside 13.6BUFRB#603.20.513.6Nico CollinsHOU · #22 · floor 2.6 · upside 23.3HOUWR#2210.32.623.3Khalil ShakirBUF · #40 · floor 4.0 · upside 18.0BUFWR#4010.04.018.0Jared WayneHOU · #53 · floor 2.2 · upside 17.7HOUWR#536.62.217.7DJ MooreBUF · #54 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.8BUFWR#547.32.415.8Keon ColemanBUF · #58 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.5BUFWR#586.32.116.5Josh KellyHOU · #59 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1HOUWR#596.82.318.1Dalton SchultzHOU · #12 · floor 2.0 · upside 17.9HOUTE#127.92.017.9Dalton KincaidBUF · #17 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.5BUFTE#177.12.415.5Dawson KnoxBUF · #21 · floor 2.2 · upside 15.2BUFTE#216.52.215.2Foster MoreauHOU · #47 · floor 2.1 · upside 10.6HOUTE#474.22.110.6PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Moneylinedraftkings · 47.8%50.8%draftkings · 47.8%PardonMe is 3.0 percentage points higher
Spreaddraftkings · -1.5-0.3draftkings · -1.5PardonMe is 1.8 lower
Game totaldraftkings · 44.544.4draftkings · 44.5PardonMe is 0.1 lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Josh Allen BUF · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 28.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 21.1 · 80% 10.5–31.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: HOU pass-rush advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
James Cook III BUF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 18.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 14.1 · 80% 6.2–22.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ray Davis BUF · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 35% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–13.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Keon Coleman BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 45% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 0.6–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
DJ Moore BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 72% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Khalil Shakir BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.7 · 80% 3.1–18.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Kincaid BUF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 49% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.5 · 80% 1.3–13.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dawson Knox BUF · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.1 · 80% 0.9–13.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: HOU pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: BUF converted 44/66 trips · HOU allowed 27/45 · End-zone targets: Unknown
C.J. Stroud HOU · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 28.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.9 · 80% 7.2–28.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
David Montgomery HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 11.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BUF pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Woody Marks HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 14.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.5 · 80% 2.6–18.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: BUF pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nico Collins HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.4 · 80% 4.7–20.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Josh Kelly HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jared Wayne HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 44% offense
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Schultz HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 16% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 3.0–15.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Foster Moreau HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 28% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: BUF pass-defense advantage · YPA: BUF pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: BUF pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: BUF pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: HOU converted 24/54 trips · BUF allowed 28/47 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateBUF offense vs HOU defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentHOU pass-rush advantageBUF allowed 7.5% · HOU generated 8.0%
Run environmentMixed evidenceBUF 4.96 YPC · HOU allowed 3.98
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateHOU offense vs BUF defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceHOU allowed 5.1% · BUF generated 7.2%
Run environmentMixed evidenceHOU 3.90 YPC · BUF allowed 5.14
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateBUF pass offense vs HOU pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceBUF 69.5% · HOU 59.3%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceBUF 8.04 YPA · HOU 6.48 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceBUF 5.9% · HOU 3.7%
InterceptionMixed evidenceBUF 2.0% · HOU 3.5%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceBUF 12.3% · HOU 8.7%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateHOU pass offense vs BUF pass defense
CompletionBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 62.5% · BUF 59.7%
Yards / attemptBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 6.80 YPA · BUF 6.24 YPA
Pass TDBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 4.1% · BUF 4.1%
InterceptionMixed evidenceHOU 1.5% · BUF 2.8%
20+ yard passBUF pass-defense advantageHOU 8.2% · BUF 8.2%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
BUF offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+
HOU offensive TD state2.2 expected10.6% zero · 38.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueNRG Stadium · Houston, TX
Roof typeRetractable
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastExterior Supported6.4 hours before kickoff
Retractable roof state Unknown; supported exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 6.1 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 32 mean · 15–69 80%Rush TD 8% 1+
Attempts 3.5 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 9 mean · 0–30 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
HOU
65 current depth players
45 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
BUF
63 current depth players
49 with prior usage context
17 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 2d0cf555255d4fcea76ccc6b821783373664ae1eb07199d144119d564dd4b3a0
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): LOW