PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
MIA 23.9 — LV 16.0
MIA · 68.9% win probability
- Margin
- MIA 7.9
- Total
- 39.9
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
PardonMe Unified
MIA at LV
Sunday, September 13 · 8:25 PM
MIA 23.9 — LV 16.0
MIA edge · MIA 68.9%
Projected total 39.9 · Confidence: moderate
PardonMe projects
MIA edge.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
MIA 18.8 — LV 16.1
MIA · 56.6% win probability
- Margin
- MIA 2.7
- Total
- 34.9
Confidence: low · Support: 70%
As of Sep 13, 2026 20:05 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
MIA 19.5 — LV 21.9
LV · 53.1% win probability
- Margin
- LV 2.4
- Total
- 41.4
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
MIA
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 78%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: +0.05 standardized talent
Pass protection: -0.24 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.34 standardized talent
Secondary: -0.62 standardized talent
Kicking: 14/14 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 45.7 gross yards per punt · 23 inside the 20
Kick returns: 27.2 yards per return · 17 returns
Punt returns: 4.3 yards per return · 16 returns
LV
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 98%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: -0.92 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.30 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.83 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.68 standardized talent
Kicking: 10/13 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 47.6 gross yards per punt · 12 inside the 20
Kick returns: 24.7 yards per return · 18 returns
Punt returns: specialist history unavailable
- Pass efficiency
- -0.853
- Rush efficiency
- -0.653
- Sack environment
- +0.022
- Drive scoring
- -0.417
- Red-zone TD rate
- +0.036
- Explosive passing
- -0.017
- Explosive rushing
- -0.047
- Starting distance to goal
- +1.845
- Turnover rate
- +0.005
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
MIAWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
LVWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points23.916.0
Win probability68.9%31.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status16 updates71 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 101 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 32 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
LV recent scoring form vs MIA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 15.0; opponent allowed 33.3.
MIA recent scoring form vs LV prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 23.0.
Players
MIA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
LV
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Kirk Cousins · LV
- Attempts
- 31.4 mean · 31.0 median · 21.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.1 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 216 mean · 199 median · 126–331 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.34 mean · 72% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 49% 1+
Malik Willis · MIA
- Attempts
- 25.6 mean · 24.0 median · 14.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 16.8 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 193 mean · 191 median · 85–302 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.00 mean · 60% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.57 mean · 42% 1+
Running back ranges
Ashton Jeanty · LV
- Opportunities
- 17.7 mean · 17.0 median · 6.0–26.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.6 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 48 median · 18–80 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 6–46 80%
- Total TD
- 40% 1+
Mike Washington Jr. · LV
- Opportunities
- 13.3 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.7 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 16–82 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
De'Von Achane · MIA
- Opportunities
- 17.1 mean · 17.0 median · 6.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.1 mean · 14.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 70 mean · 68 median · 26–110 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 22 median · 7–44 80%
- Total TD
- 42% 1+
Jaylen Wright · MIA
- Opportunities
- 10.9 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 37 mean · 28 median · 12–74 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
- Total TD
- 26% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Brock Bowers · LV · TE
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 42 median · 11–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Michael Mayer · LV · TE
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 19 median · 10–57 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jack Bech · LV · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 35 median · 12–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jalen Nailor · LV · WR
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 32 median · 16–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Tre Tucker · LV · WR
- Targets
- 6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 45 median · 22–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 34 median · 11–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 21 median · 0–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 27 median · 13–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Malik Washington · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 27 median · 9–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
13 individualized projections · 3 baseline projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Malik WillisMIA · #19 · floor 6.7 · upside 23.8MIAQB#1914.16.723.8Kirk CousinsLV · #29 · floor 5.4 · upside 21.1LVQB#2912.05.421.1De'Von AchaneMIA · #5 · floor 5.2 · upside 26.2MIARB#515.45.226.2Ashton JeantyLV · #12 · floor 4.4 · upside 24.0LVRB#1212.84.424.0Mike Washington Jr.LV · #27 · floor 3.0 · upside 20.2LVRB#279.33.020.2Jaylen WrightMIA · #53 · floor 1.9 · upside 15.7MIARB#535.51.915.7Tre TuckerLV · #47 · floor 4.2 · upside 16.6LVWR#478.54.216.6Caleb DouglasMIA · #57 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1MIAWR#576.82.318.1Jack BechLV · #67 · floor 2.2 · upside 14.7LVWR#676.52.214.7Jalen NailorLV · #73 · floor 2.6 · upside 15.5LVWR#735.22.615.5Jalen TolbertMIA · #75 · floor 2.3 · upside 15.3MIAWR#754.72.315.3Malik WashingtonMIA · #85 · floor 1.9 · upside 13.6MIAWR#855.71.913.6Brock BowersLV · #8 · floor 2.1 · upside 20.6LVTE#88.22.120.6Greg DulcichMIA · #23 · floor 2.1 · upside 15.0MIATE#236.42.115.0Michael MayerLV · #29 · floor 2.0 · upside 13.8LVTE#295.92.013.8Will KacmarekMIA · #36 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.2MIATE#364.10.014.2PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Moneylinedraftkings · 60.0%31.1%draftkings · 60.0%PardonMe is 28.8 percentage points lower
Spreaddraftkings · 3.07.9draftkings · 3.0PardonMe is 10.9 higher
Game totaldraftkings · 40.539.9draftkings · 40.5PardonMe is 0.6 lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Kirk Cousins LV · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 31.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.8 · 80% 5.1–26.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: MIA pass-rush advantage · Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ashton Jeanty LV · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 97% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 17.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 12.8 · 80% 4.9–20.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Washington Jr. LV · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 13.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.0–17.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jack Bech LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.6 · 80% 0.0–15.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: MIA pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Nailor LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.3 · 80% 0.0–15.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: MIA pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tre Tucker LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.3 · 80% 3.6–19.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: MIA pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Bowers LV · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 3.4–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: MIA pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Mayer LV · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.0 · 80% 0.7–13.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: LV passing-offense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: MIA pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LV converted 18/37 trips · MIA allowed 39/62 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik Willis MIA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 83% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 25.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 13.1 · 80% 2.4–23.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
De'Von Achane MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 17.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 13.7 · 80% 5.8–21.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: LV pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 32 attempts · 11 inside 10 · 5 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 11 targets · 7 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Wright MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.6 · 80% 0.0–15.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: LV pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: 12 attempts · 6 inside 10 · 4 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 0 targets · 0 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Caleb Douglas MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Tolbert MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 38% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.3 · 80% 0.0–14.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Malik Washington MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 70% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.0–14.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 11 targets · 10 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Greg Dulcich MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.6 · 80% 1.4–13.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 6 targets · 3 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Will Kacmarek MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–11.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: MIA passing-offense advantage · YPA: LV pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: MIA converted 27/48 trips · LV allowed 37/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateLV offense vs MIA defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMIA pass-rush advantageLV allowed 11.1% · MIA generated 7.0%
Run environmentMixed evidenceLV 3.57 YPC · MIA allowed 4.80
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateMIA offense vs LV defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentMixed evidenceMIA allowed 7.4% · LV generated 6.4%
Run environmentMixed evidenceMIA 4.73 YPC · LV allowed 3.89
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateLV pass offense vs MIA pass defense
CompletionLV passing-offense advantageLV 66.0% · MIA 72.0%
Yards / attemptMixed evidenceLV 6.44 YPA · MIA 7.61 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceLV 3.9% · MIA 5.6%
InterceptionMixed evidenceLV 3.7% · MIA 1.7%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceLV 7.2% · MIA 9.9%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateMIA pass offense vs LV pass defense
CompletionMIA passing-offense advantageMIA 67.2% · LV 68.5%
Yards / attemptLV pass-defense advantageMIA 6.94 YPA · LV 6.95 YPA
Pass TDMixed evidenceMIA 4.8% · LV 4.4%
InterceptionMixed evidenceMIA 3.8% · LV 1.5%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceMIA 9.0% · LV 7.1%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
LV offensive TD state2.1 expected11.7% zero · 36.3% 3+
MIA offensive TD state2.5 expected8.5% zero · 44.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueAllegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Roof typeFixed Roof
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastNot ApplicableForecast lead time unknown
Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 1.6 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 1 mean · -3–5 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 6.0 mean · 1.0–9.0 80%Net yards 39 mean · 3–73 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
LV
86 current depth players
56 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
MIA
79 current depth players
45 with prior usage context
13 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature b34028efbb2dba1bd44917805dc6adbfe02a63ed85e09bd1087e77598fef085c
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): MEDIUM