PardonMe Unified

WAS at PHI

Sunday, September 13 · 3:25 PM CDT

WAS 19.6 — PHI 23.5

PHI slight edge · PHI 59.7%

Projected total 43.1 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects PHI slight edge.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jalen Hurts · PHI

Attempts
29.9 mean · 29.0 median · 20.0–39.0 80%
Completions
18.9 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
203 mean · 195 median · 118–282 80%
Passing TD
1.30 mean · 70% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Attempts
25.8 mean · 25.0 median · 16.0–38.0 80%
Completions
16.5 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Passing yards
177 mean · 181 median · 100–251 80%
Passing TD
1.19 mean · 68% 1+
Interceptions
0.55 mean · 41% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
19.4 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
Carries
16.5 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
73 mean · 70 median · 36–112 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
High

Tank Bigsby · PHI

Opportunities
10.5 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
39 mean · 36 median · 12–68 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 6 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Medium

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
15.0 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–20.0 80%
Carries
13.7 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 53 median · 33–90 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 7 median · 0–18 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
10.1 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Carries
7.7 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
33 mean · 31 median · 9–57 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 12 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 30 median · 10–70 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 22 median · 0–33 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Makai Lemon · PHI · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

Targets
6.6 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 56 median · 14–97 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 34 median · 11–68 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 10 median · 0–20 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 40 median · 20–60 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 4.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 41 median · 14–95 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
6.6 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 47 median · 24–106 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

WAS 19.6 — PHI 23.5

PHI · 59.7% win probability

Margin
PHI 3.9
Total
43.1

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

WAS 18.5 — PHI 32.1

PHI · 79.7% win probability

Margin
PHI 13.7
Total
50.6

Confidence: low · Support: 66%

As of Sep 13, 2026 20:05 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

WAS 19.8 — PHI 23.4

PHI · 55.9% win probability

Margin
PHI 3.5
Total
43.2

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

WAS

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 84%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.06 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.16 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.68 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.27 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 46.0 gross yards per punt · 14 inside the 20

Kick returns: 29.3 yards per return · 25 returns

Punt returns: 8.0 yards per return · 16 returns

PHI

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 94%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.12 standardized talent

Pass protection: +1.21 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.55 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.65 standardized talent

Kicking: 12/17 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 47.6 gross yards per punt · 12 inside the 20

Kick returns: 25.5 yards per return · 17 returns

Punt returns: specialist history unavailable

Pass efficiency
+0.447
Rush efficiency
+0.498
Sack environment
-0.019
Drive scoring
+0.528
Red-zone TD rate
+0.051
Explosive passing
-0.020
Explosive rushing
+0.017
Starting distance to goal
-0.125
Turnover rate
-0.011

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

WASWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PHIWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonWASPHI
Projected points19.623.5
Win probability40.3%59.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status60 updates70 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PHI recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 25.3.

WAS recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.7; opponent allowed 18.0.