PardonMe Unified

WAS at PHI

Sunday, September 13 · 8:25 PM

WAS 19.6 — PHI 23.5

PHI slight edge · PHI 59.7%

Projected total 43.1 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects PHI slight edge.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

WAS 19.6 — PHI 23.5

PHI · 59.7% win probability

Margin: PHI 3.9
Total: 43.1

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

WAS 18.5 — PHI 32.1

PHI · 79.7% win probability

Margin: PHI 13.7
Total: 50.6

Confidence: low · Support: 66%

As of Sep 13, 2026 20:05 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

WAS 19.8 — PHI 23.4

PHI · 55.9% win probability

Margin: PHI 3.5
Total: 43.2

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

WAS

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 84%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.06 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.16 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.68 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.27 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 46.0 gross yards per punt · 14 inside the 20

Kick returns: 29.3 yards per return · 25 returns

Punt returns: 8.0 yards per return · 16 returns

PHI

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 94%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.12 standardized talent

Pass protection: +1.21 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.55 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.65 standardized talent

Kicking: 12/17 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 47.6 gross yards per punt · 12 inside the 20

Kick returns: 25.5 yards per return · 17 returns

Punt returns: specialist history unavailable

Pass efficiency: +0.447
Rush efficiency: +0.498
Sack environment: -0.019
Drive scoring: +0.528
Red-zone TD rate: +0.051
Explosive passing: -0.020
Explosive rushing: +0.017
Starting distance to goal: -0.125
Turnover rate: -0.011

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

WASWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PHIWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonWASPHI

Projected points19.623.5

Win probability40.3%59.7%

Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet

Current status44 updates50 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PHI recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 25.3.

WAS recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.7; opponent allowed 18.0.

Advanced player detail →

Jalen Hurts PHI · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 29.5 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 19.6 · 80% 8.9–30.3
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: 54 attempts · 37 completions · Prior red-zone rushing: 27 attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Saquon Barkley PHI · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 85% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 19.8 opportunities
Full-PPR: 14.6 · 80% 6.7–22.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: PHI passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 43 attempts · 24 inside 10 · 14 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 7 targets · 5 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Tank Bigsby PHI · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 11% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 10.3 opportunities
Full-PPR: 7.2 · 80% 0.0–15.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: PHI passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 18 attempts · 9 inside 10 · 6 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Makai Lemon PHI · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: Unknown
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 5.2 targets
Full-PPR: 9.2 · 80% 1.5–16.8
Projection basis: Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

DeVonta Smith PHI · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 92% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.3 targets
Full-PPR: 11.6 · 80% 3.9–19.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 11 targets · 7 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Dontayvion Wicks PHI · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 6% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 4.5 targets
Full-PPR: 8.2 · 80% 0.5–15.9
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Dallas Goedert PHI · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 92% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.0 targets
Full-PPR: 9.2 · 80% 3.0–15.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 13 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Johnny Mundt PHI · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 23% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 2.7 targets
Full-PPR: 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: PHI passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: PHI passing-offense advantage · Interception: PHI passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: PHI converted 31/46 trips · WAS allowed 42/63 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jayden Daniels WAS · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 75% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 25.7 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 18.5 · 80% 7.8–29.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: PHI pass-rush advantage · Completion: PHI pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PHI pass-defense advantage · Interception: PHI pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: PHI pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: 24 attempts · 11 completions · Prior red-zone rushing: 6 attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 36% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 14.6 opportunities
Full-PPR: 10.6 · 80% 2.7–18.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 31 attempts · 20 inside 10 · 12 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Rachaad White WAS · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 33% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 9.5 opportunities
Full-PPR: 7.7 · 80% 0.0–15.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Terry McLaurin WAS · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 70% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.7 targets
Full-PPR: 11.7 · 80% 4.0–19.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: PHI pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PHI pass-defense advantage · Interception: PHI pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: PHI pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: PHI pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 8 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Stefon Diggs WAS · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 63% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 6.9 targets
Full-PPR: 12.7 · 80% 5.1–20.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: PHI pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PHI pass-defense advantage · Interception: PHI pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: PHI pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: PHI pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

John Bates WAS · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 59% offense
Availability: Current status: Camp Absence Reported Without Official Participation Level
Projected workload: 2.2 targets
Full-PPR: 3.6 · 80% 0.0–9.9
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: PHI pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PHI pass-defense advantage · Interception: PHI pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: PHI pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: PHI pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 2 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Chig Okonkwo WAS · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 80% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 5.3 targets
Full-PPR: 8.9 · 80% 2.6–15.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: PHI pass-defense advantage · YPA: Mixed evidence · Pass TD: PHI pass-defense advantage · Interception: PHI pass-defense advantage · 20+ pass: PHI pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: PHI pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: WAS converted 32/48 trips · PHI allowed 27/50 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Team matchups

Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.

Directional team environment

PHI offense vs WAS defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentMixed evidencePHI allowed 6.6% · WAS generated 7.2%

Run environmentMixed evidencePHI 4.16 YPC · WAS allowed 4.78

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Directional team environment

WAS offense vs PHI defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentPHI pass-rush advantageWAS allowed 7.3% · PHI generated 7.2%

Run environmentMixed evidenceWAS 4.73 YPC · PHI allowed 4.28

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Passing environment

Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.

Directional passing environment

PHI pass offense vs WAS pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionMixed evidencePHI 64.0% · WAS 64.8%

Yards / attemptPHI passing-offense advantagePHI 7.04 YPA · WAS 8.09 YPA

Pass TDPHI passing-offense advantagePHI 5.2% · WAS 6.1%

InterceptionPHI passing-offense advantagePHI 1.4% · WAS 1.5%

20+ yard passMixed evidencePHI 8.5% · WAS 9.8%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Directional passing environment

WAS pass offense vs PHI pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionPHI pass-defense advantageWAS 61.2% · PHI 56.8%

Yards / attemptMixed evidenceWAS 7.10 YPA · PHI 6.39 YPA

Pass TDPHI pass-defense advantageWAS 4.1% · PHI 2.6%

InterceptionPHI pass-defense advantageWAS 2.6% · PHI 2.2%

20+ yard passPHI pass-defense advantageWAS 8.5% · PHI 8.5%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Touchdown connections

These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.

PHI offensive TD state2.7 expected6.4% zero · 51.7% 3+

WAS offensive TD state2.2 expected11.4% zero · 36.9% 3+

Jayden Daniels + Stefon DiggsJayden Daniels passing TD + Stefon Diggs anytime TDBoth events 27.5% · independent 20.4%

Dallas Goedert + Jalen HurtsDallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TDBoth events 27.3% · independent 20.7%

Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurinJayden Daniels passing TD + Terry McLaurin anytime TDBoth events 24.7% · independent 18.2%

Jayden Daniels + Chig OkonkwoJayden Daniels passing TD + Chig Okonkwo anytime TDBoth events 21.7% · independent 15.9%

Jalen Hurts + DeVonta SmithJalen Hurts passing TD + DeVonta Smith anytime TDBoth events 23.2% · independent 17.6%

Jalen Hurts + Dontayvion WicksJalen Hurts passing TD + Dontayvion Wicks anytime TDBoth events 19.7% · independent 14.8%

Explore touchdown connections

Weather & venue

VenueLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA

Roof typeOpen Air

Playing surfaceGrass

ForecastSupported0.8 hours before kickoff

Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.

Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.

Madden talent context

Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.

PHI · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

PHI · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

WAS · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

Unit matchup indexes

PHI vs WASol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

PHI vs WASol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

PHI vs WASqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

PHI vs WASreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

WAS vs PHIol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

WAS vs PHIol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

WAS vs PHIqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

WAS vs PHIreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

Quarterback rushing ranges

Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.

Jalen Hurts · PHI

Attempts 5.9 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 27 mean · 5–40 80%Rush TD 4% 1+

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Attempts 8.2 mean · 3.0–15.0 80%Net yards 46 mean · 12–119 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Depth and status detail

Current depthBoth teams available

AvailabilityNot yet required

Practice report timingNot yet required

WeatherNot yet available

Completeness notes

2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
2026 Same Season History Unavailable
Not yet required
Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
Weather Forecast Not Yet Available

Team role detail

PHI

77 current depth players

59 with prior usage context

19 prior high-snap players

WAS

95 current depth players

74 with prior usage context

21 prior high-snap players

Sources & methodology

Projection snapshots

Feature 7738c3a499e18f327cfce5a3eea90dd8a0a579e6da78267566d5517cb2cafde7
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527

Serving contracts used

Game projection: nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)
Player context: nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)
Forward fantasy: nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')
Market comparisons: nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)
Unit and passing context: nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving

Current support states

Depth support: Both teams available
Availability support: Not yet required
Weather support: Not yet available
Projection confidence (technical): LOW

WAS at PHI

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Full Football

P5 V4 baseline

WAS

PHI

Expected lineup & depth

Overview

Matchup context

Players

WAS

PHI

Quarterback ranges

Jalen Hurts · PHI

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Running back ranges

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Tank Bigsby · PHI

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Rachaad White · WAS

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

Makai Lemon · PHI · WR

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

John Bates · WAS · TE

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Fantasy

Game projections

PardonMe vs the Odds

Player props

More

Jalen Hurts PHI · QB

Saquon Barkley PHI · RB

Tank Bigsby PHI · RB

Makai Lemon PHI · WR

DeVonta Smith PHI · WR

Dontayvion Wicks PHI · WR

Dallas Goedert PHI · TE

Johnny Mundt PHI · TE

Jayden Daniels WAS · QB

Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS · RB

Rachaad White WAS · RB

Terry McLaurin WAS · WR

Stefon Diggs WAS · WR

John Bates WAS · TE

Chig Okonkwo WAS · TE

Team matchups

PHI offense vs WAS defense

WAS offense vs PHI defense

Passing environment

PHI pass offense vs WAS pass defense

WAS pass offense vs PHI pass defense

Touchdown connections

Weather & venue

Madden talent context

Unit matchup indexes

Quarterback rushing ranges

Depth and status detail

Team role detail

PHI

WAS

Sources & methodology

Build Selection