PardonMe Unified

ARI at LAC

Sunday, September 13 · 3:25 PM CDT

ARI 19.7 — LAC 23.2

LAC slight edge · LAC 58.6%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects LAC slight edge.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

Attempts
33.5 mean · 34.0 median · 22.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.0 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
233 mean · 226 median · 145–303 80%
Passing TD
1.51 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Justin Herbert · LAC

Attempts
29.4 mean · 29.0 median · 20.0–38.0 80%
Completions
19.0 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
212 mean · 220 median · 119–300 80%
Passing TD
1.33 mean · 72% 1+
Interceptions
0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
12.2 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Carries
10.6 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
40 mean · 38 median · 18–64 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
12.3 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
Carries
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
42 mean · 37 median · 13–79 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 11 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Omarion Hampton · LAC

Opportunities
17.6 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Carries
13.8 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
60 mean · 57 median · 30–93 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 6–39 80%
Total TD
42% 1+
Medium

Kimani Vidal · LAC

Opportunities
12.8 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–24.0 80%
Carries
11.0 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–21.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 41 median · 11–86 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 10–49 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 60 median · 20–90 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 30 median · 15–106 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Devin Duvernay · ARI · WR

Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 10 median · 0–29 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Marvin Harrison Jr. · ARI · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 43 median · 14–101 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Oronde Gadsden · LAC · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 41 median · 0–68 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
Medium

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 12 median · 0–24 80%
Receiving TD
8% 1+
Medium

Derius Davis · LAC · WR

Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 10 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 33 median · 11–55 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 42 median · 14–98 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

ARI 19.7 — LAC 23.2

LAC · 58.6% win probability

Margin
LAC 3.5
Total
42.8

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

ARI 17.4 — LAC 27.2

LAC · 72.7% win probability

Margin
LAC 9.8
Total
44.5

Confidence: low · Support: 73%

As of Sep 13, 2026 20:06 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ARI 18.4 — LAC 23.8

LAC · 60.8% win probability

Margin
LAC 5.4
Total
42.2

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

ARI

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 96%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: -0.33 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.43 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.01 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.35 standardized talent

Kicking: 10/16 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 51.8 gross yards per punt · 13 inside the 20

Kick returns: 29.2 yards per return · 15 returns

Punt returns: 5.1 yards per return · 20 returns

LAC

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 92%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: defensive front. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

QB talent: +0.99 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.38 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.45 standardized talent

Kicking: 18/20 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 46.2 gross yards per punt · 15 inside the 20

Kick returns: 25.8 yards per return · 18 returns

Punt returns: 2.8 yards per return · 25 returns

Pass efficiency
+0.185
Rush efficiency
+0.632
Sack environment
+0.007
Drive scoring
+0.674
Red-zone TD rate
+0.092
Explosive passing
+0.011
Explosive rushing
+0.035
Starting distance to goal
-5.182
Turnover rate
-0.010

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ARIWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

LACWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonARILAC
Projected points19.723.2
Win probability41.4%58.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates66 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 118 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 30 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 33.3.

ARI recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 18.7.