PardonMe Unified

ARI at LAC

Sunday, September 13 · 8:25 PM

ARI 19.7 — LAC 23.2

LAC slight edge · LAC 58.6%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects LAC slight edge.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

ARI 19.7 — LAC 23.2

LAC · 58.6% win probability

Margin: LAC 3.5
Total: 42.8

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

ARI 17.4 — LAC 27.2

LAC · 72.7% win probability

Margin: LAC 9.8
Total: 44.5

Confidence: low · Support: 73%

As of Sep 13, 2026 20:06 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ARI 18.4 — LAC 23.8

LAC · 60.8% win probability

Margin: LAC 5.4
Total: 42.2

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

ARI

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 96%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: -0.33 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.43 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.01 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.35 standardized talent

Kicking: 10/16 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 51.8 gross yards per punt · 13 inside the 20

Kick returns: 29.2 yards per return · 15 returns

Punt returns: 5.1 yards per return · 20 returns

LAC

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 92%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: defensive front. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

QB talent: +0.99 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.38 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.45 standardized talent

Kicking: 18/20 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 46.2 gross yards per punt · 15 inside the 20

Kick returns: 25.8 yards per return · 18 returns

Punt returns: 2.8 yards per return · 25 returns

Pass efficiency: +0.185
Rush efficiency: +0.632
Sack environment: +0.007
Drive scoring: +0.674
Red-zone TD rate: +0.092
Explosive passing: +0.011
Explosive rushing: +0.035
Starting distance to goal: -5.182
Turnover rate: -0.010

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ARIWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

LACWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonARILAC

Projected points19.723.2

Win probability41.4%58.6%

Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet

Current status17 updates59 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 118 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 30 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 33.3.

ARI recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 18.7.

Advanced player detail →

Jacoby Brissett ARI · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 33.0 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 15.3 · 80% 4.6–26.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: LAC pass-rush advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: 93 attempts · 49 completions · Prior red-zone rushing: 5 attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Tyler Allgeier ARI · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 37% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 11.9 opportunities
Full-PPR: 8.3 · 80% 0.4–16.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: ARI rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: LAC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 32 attempts · 19 inside 10 · 10 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 1 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jeremiyah Love ARI · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: Unknown
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 12.4 opportunities
Full-PPR: 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
Projection basis: Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: ARI rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: LAC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Kendrick Bourne ARI · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 40% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 4.6 targets
Full-PPR: 7.6 · 80% 0.0–15.3
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: LAC pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 2 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 33% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.1 targets
Full-PPR: 9.8 · 80% 2.1–17.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: LAC pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 10 targets · 6 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Devin Duvernay ARI · WR

Current role: WR2
Prior usage: 0% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 2.5 targets
Full-PPR: 3.2 · 80% 0.0–10.8
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: LAC pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Trey McBride ARI · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 95% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 7.9 targets
Full-PPR: 13.2 · 80% 7.0–19.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: LAC pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 33 targets · 20 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Elijah Higgins ARI · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 60% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 3.2 targets
Full-PPR: 5.4 · 80% 0.0–11.7
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: LAC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: LAC pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: LAC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: LAC pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 5 targets · 2 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: ARI converted 34/60 trips · LAC allowed 23/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Justin Herbert LAC · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 29.7 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 21.6 · 80% 10.9–32.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: 89 attempts · 43 completions · Prior red-zone rushing: 11 attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Omarion Hampton LAC · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 3% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 17.2 opportunities
Full-PPR: 13.0 · 80% 5.1–20.9
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: LAC rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: LAC passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 26 attempts · 15 inside 10 · 8 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 2 targets · 2 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Kimani Vidal LAC · RB

Current role: RB3
Prior usage: 93% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 13.3 opportunities
Full-PPR: 9.7 · 80% 1.9–17.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: LAC rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: LAC passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: 26 attempts · 11 inside 10 · 7 inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: 6 targets · 3 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Quentin Johnston LAC · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 77% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.9 targets
Full-PPR: 11.8 · 80% 4.1–19.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 10 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Tre' Harris LAC · WR

Current role: WR2
Prior usage: 57% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.4 targets
Full-PPR: 7.4 · 80% 0.0–15.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 5 targets · 3 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Derius Davis LAC · WR

Current role: WR3
Prior usage: 7% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 2.4 targets
Full-PPR: 3.7 · 80% 0.0–11.3
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Charlie Kolar LAC · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 25% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 2.1 targets
Full-PPR: 3.8 · 80% 0.0–10.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Oronde Gadsden LAC · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 45% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 3.9 targets
Full-PPR: 6.8 · 80% 0.6–13.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: LAC passing-offense advantage · YPA: LAC passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 15 targets · 7 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: LAC converted 28/57 trips · ARI allowed 42/67 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Team matchups

Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.

Directional team environment

ARI offense vs LAC defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentLAC pass-rush advantageARI allowed 8.3% · LAC generated 8.2%

Run environmentARI rushing-offense advantageARI 4.33 YPC · LAC allowed 4.31

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Directional team environment

LAC offense vs ARI defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentMixed evidenceLAC allowed 9.5% · ARI generated 5.0%

Run environmentLAC rushing-offense advantageLAC 4.44 YPC · ARI allowed 4.41

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Passing environment

Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.

Directional passing environment

ARI pass offense vs LAC pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionMixed evidenceARI 65.8% · LAC 60.8%

Yards / attemptLAC pass-defense advantageARI 6.71 YPA · LAC 6.56 YPA

Pass TDLAC pass-defense advantageARI 4.5% · LAC 3.2%

InterceptionMixed evidenceARI 1.7% · LAC 3.8%

20+ yard passLAC pass-defense advantageARI 7.6% · LAC 7.3%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Directional passing environment

LAC pass offense vs ARI pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionLAC passing-offense advantageLAC 64.5% · ARI 65.6%

Yards / attemptLAC passing-offense advantageLAC 6.95 YPA · ARI 7.22 YPA

Pass TDMixed evidenceLAC 4.6% · ARI 5.4%

InterceptionMixed evidenceLAC 2.5% · ARI 1.7%

20+ yard passMixed evidenceLAC 7.9% · ARI 9.1%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Touchdown connections

These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.

ARI offensive TD state2.1 expected12.0% zero · 35.6% 3+

LAC offensive TD state2.5 expected8.0% zero · 46.1% 3+

Justin Herbert + Quentin JohnstonJustin Herbert passing TD + Quentin Johnston anytime TDBoth events 29.3% · independent 22.7%

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBrideJacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TDBoth events 34.1% · independent 27.6%

Jacoby Brissett + Marvin Harrison Jr.Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Marvin Harrison Jr. anytime TDBoth events 24.8% · independent 19.9%

Tre' Harris + Justin HerbertTre' Harris anytime TD + Justin Herbert passing TDBoth events 16.9% · independent 12.9%

Oronde Gadsden + Justin HerbertOronde Gadsden anytime TD + Justin Herbert passing TDBoth events 16.0% · independent 12.2%

Kendrick Bourne + Jacoby BrissettKendrick Bourne anytime TD + Jacoby Brissett passing TDBoth events 15.0% · independent 11.9%

Explore touchdown connections

Weather & venue

VenueSoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

Roof typeFixed Roof

Playing surfaceArtificial Turf

ForecastNot ApplicableForecast lead time unknown

Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.

Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.

Madden talent context

Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.

ARI · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

ARI · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

LAC · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

Unit matchup indexes

ARI vs LACol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

ARI vs LACol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

ARI vs LACqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

ARI vs LACreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

LAC vs ARIol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

LAC vs ARIol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

LAC vs ARIqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

LAC vs ARIreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

Quarterback rushing ranges

Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

Attempts 2.4 mean · 0.0–4.0 80%Net yards 11 mean · -2–22 80%Rush TD 1% 1+

Justin Herbert · LAC

Attempts 5.7 mean · 2.0–10.0 80%Net yards 31 mean · 0–66 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Depth and status detail

Current depthBoth teams available

AvailabilityNot yet required

Practice report timingNot yet required

WeatherNot yet available

Completeness notes

2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
2026 Same Season History Unavailable
Not yet required
Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
Weather Forecast Not Yet Available

Team role detail

LAC

82 current depth players

48 with prior usage context

15 prior high-snap players

ARI

100 current depth players

70 with prior usage context

15 prior high-snap players

Sources & methodology

Projection snapshots

Feature 556b4dfcd5d345f163a41f1e936368af8b917b164f3376aff07230e980d48e67
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527

Serving contracts used

Game projection: nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)
Player context: nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)
Forward fantasy: nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')
Market comparisons: nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)
Unit and passing context: nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving

Current support states

Depth support: Both teams available
Availability support: Not yet required
Weather support: Not yet available
Projection confidence (technical): LOW

ARI at LAC

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Full Football

P5 V4 baseline

ARI

LAC

Expected lineup & depth

Overview

Matchup context

Players

ARI

LAC

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

Justin Herbert · LAC

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Omarion Hampton · LAC

Kimani Vidal · LAC

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Devin Duvernay · ARI · WR

Marvin Harrison Jr. · ARI · WR

Oronde Gadsden · LAC · TE

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Derius Davis · LAC · WR

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Fantasy

Game projections

PardonMe vs the Odds

Player props

More

Jacoby Brissett ARI · QB

Tyler Allgeier ARI · RB

Jeremiyah Love ARI · RB

Kendrick Bourne ARI · WR

Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI · WR

Devin Duvernay ARI · WR

Trey McBride ARI · TE

Elijah Higgins ARI · TE

Justin Herbert LAC · QB

Omarion Hampton LAC · RB

Kimani Vidal LAC · RB

Quentin Johnston LAC · WR

Tre' Harris LAC · WR

Derius Davis LAC · WR

Charlie Kolar LAC · TE

Oronde Gadsden LAC · TE

Team matchups

ARI offense vs LAC defense

LAC offense vs ARI defense

Passing environment

ARI pass offense vs LAC pass defense

LAC pass offense vs ARI pass defense

Touchdown connections

Weather & venue

Madden talent context

Unit matchup indexes

Quarterback rushing ranges

Depth and status detail

Team role detail

LAC

ARI

Sources & methodology

Build Selection