PardonMe Unified

DAL at NYG

Monday, September 14 · 12:20 AM

DAL 23.0 — NYG 22.8

Nearly even · DAL 50.3%

Projected total 45.8 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

DAL 23.0 — NYG 22.8

DAL · 50.3% win probability

Margin: DAL 0.1
Total: 45.8

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

DAL 21.3 — NYG 23.0

NYG · 54.3% win probability

Margin: NYG 1.7
Total: 44.2

Confidence: low · Support: 67%

As of Sep 14, 2026 00:00 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DAL 19.5 — NYG 25.1

NYG · 63.3% win probability

Margin: NYG 5.6
Total: 44.6

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

DAL

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 98%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +1.02 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.07 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.57 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.49 standardized talent

Kicking: 19/24 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 52.7 gross yards per punt · 3 inside the 20

Kick returns: 26.6 yards per return · 41 returns

Punt returns: 1.7 yards per return · 15 returns

NYG

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 94%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: linebackers. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

QB talent: +0.31 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.70 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.40 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.43 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 48.9 gross yards per punt · 9 inside the 20

Kick returns: specialist history unavailable

Punt returns: 5.6 yards per return · 23 returns

Pass efficiency: -0.011
Rush efficiency: -0.410
Sack environment: +0.005
Drive scoring: +0.170
Red-zone TD rate: +0.009
Explosive passing: +0.008
Explosive rushing: +0.003
Starting distance to goal: -1.993
Turnover rate: -0.008

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DALWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

NYGWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDALNYG

Projected points23.022.8

Win probability50.3%49.7%

Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet

Current status3 updates30 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 131 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DAL recent scoring form vs NYG prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.3; opponent allowed 14.3.

NYG recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 30.3.

Advanced player detail →

Dak Prescott DAL · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 51% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 33.5 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 17.3 · 80% 6.6–28.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: DAL pass-protection advantage · Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Javonte Williams DAL · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 27% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 15.4 opportunities
Full-PPR: 11.7 · 80% 3.9–19.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: DAL rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: DAL passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Emari Demercado DAL · RB

Current role: RB3
Prior usage: 22% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 8.7 opportunities
Full-PPR: 6.7 · 80% 0.0–14.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: DAL rushing-offense advantage · Broader team passing environment: DAL passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Ryan Flournoy DAL · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 87% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.3 targets
Full-PPR: 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: DAL pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

CeeDee Lamb DAL · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 45% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 8.0 targets
Full-PPR: 13.8 · 80% 6.1–21.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: DAL pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

George Pickens DAL · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 45% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 7.4 targets
Full-PPR: 13.4 · 80% 5.8–21.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: DAL pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jake Ferguson DAL · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 60% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.3 targets
Full-PPR: 6.9 · 80% 0.7–13.1
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: DAL pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 31% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 2.2 targets
Full-PPR: 3.4 · 80% 0.0–9.7
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DAL passing-offense advantage · YPA: DAL passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: DAL passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: DAL passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: DAL pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DAL converted 37/64 trips · NYG allowed 36/57 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jaxson Dart NYG · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 27.7 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 19.9 · 80% 9.3–30.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: Mixed evidence · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Cam Skattebo NYG · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 21% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 17.3 opportunities
Full-PPR: 14.7 · 80% 6.8–22.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: NYG passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Devin Singletary NYG · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 32% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 11.3 opportunities
Full-PPR: 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: NYG passing-offense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Darnell Mooney NYG · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 83% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 4.3 targets
Full-PPR: 7.9 · 80% 0.2–15.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Malik Nabers NYG · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 33% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 8.1 targets
Full-PPR: 14.9 · 80% 7.2–22.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Malachi Fields NYG · WR

Current role: WR2
Prior usage: Unknown
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 5.1 targets
Full-PPR: 9.3 · 80% 1.6–17.0
Projection basis: Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Isaiah Likely NYG · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 49% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 3.5 targets
Full-PPR: 6.6 · 80% 0.4–12.9
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Theo Johnson NYG · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 96% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.3 targets
Full-PPR: 9.3 · 80% 3.1–15.5
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: NYG passing-offense advantage · Pass TD: Mixed evidence · Interception: NYG passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: NYG passing-offense advantage · Broader sack context: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: NYG converted 29/59 trips · DAL allowed 44/66 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Team matchups

Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.

Directional team environment

DAL offense vs NYG defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentDAL pass-protection advantageDAL allowed 4.7% · NYG generated 6.5%

Run environmentDAL rushing-offense advantageDAL 4.59 YPC · NYG allowed 5.31

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Directional team environment

NYG offense vs DAL defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentMixed evidenceNYG allowed 8.4% · DAL generated 5.8%

Run environmentMixed evidenceNYG 4.30 YPC · DAL allowed 4.72

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Passing environment

Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.

Directional passing environment

DAL pass offense vs NYG pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionDAL passing-offense advantageDAL 67.1% · NYG 65.1%

Yards / attemptDAL passing-offense advantageDAL 7.59 YPA · NYG 7.11 YPA

Pass TDMixed evidenceDAL 5.0% · NYG 4.5%

InterceptionDAL passing-offense advantageDAL 1.9% · NYG 1.6%

20+ yard passDAL passing-offense advantageDAL 9.0% · NYG 8.9%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Directional passing environment

NYG pass offense vs DAL pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionMixed evidenceNYG 61.4% · DAL 68.5%

Yards / attemptNYG passing-offense advantageNYG 7.04 YPA · DAL 8.13 YPA

Pass TDMixed evidenceNYG 4.0% · DAL 6.3%

InterceptionNYG passing-offense advantageNYG 1.9% · DAL 1.1%

20+ yard passNYG passing-offense advantageNYG 9.9% · DAL 10.4%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Touchdown connections

These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.

DAL offensive TD state2.7 expected6.6% zero · 51.1% 3+

NYG offensive TD state2.9 expected5.3% zero · 56.4% 3+

Jaxson Dart + Malik NabersJaxson Dart passing TD + Malik Nabers anytime TDBoth events 29.7% · independent 21.5%

Jaxson Dart + Theo JohnsonJaxson Dart passing TD + Theo Johnson anytime TDBoth events 23.4% · independent 16.7%

George Pickens + Dak PrescottGeorge Pickens anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TDBoth events 27.6% · independent 22.4%

CeeDee Lamb + Dak PrescottCeeDee Lamb anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TDBoth events 25.3% · independent 20.4%

Ryan Flournoy + Dak PrescottRyan Flournoy anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TDBoth events 24.9% · independent 20.1%

Jaxson Dart + Darnell MooneyJaxson Dart passing TD + Darnell Mooney anytime TDBoth events 15.2% · independent 10.8%

Explore touchdown connections

Weather & venue

VenueMetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

Roof typeOpen Air

Playing surfaceArtificial Turf

ForecastSupported0.2 hours before kickoff

Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.

Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.

Madden talent context

Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.

DAL · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DAL · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

NYG · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

Unit matchup indexes

DAL vs NYGol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

DAL vs NYGol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

DAL vs NYGqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

DAL vs NYGreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

NYG vs DALol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

NYG vs DALol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

NYG vs DALqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

NYG vs DALreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

Quarterback rushing ranges

Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.

Dak Prescott · DAL

Attempts 3.3 mean · 1.0–5.0 80%Net yards 11 mean · -4–34 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Jaxson Dart · NYG

Attempts 6.1 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 39 mean · 7–66 80%Rush TD 7% 1+

Depth and status detail

Current depthBoth teams available

AvailabilityNot yet required

Practice report timingNot yet required

WeatherNot yet available

Completeness notes

2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
2026 Same Season History Unavailable
Not yet required
Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
Weather Forecast Not Yet Available

Team role detail

NYG

80 current depth players

63 with prior usage context

20 prior high-snap players

DAL

92 current depth players

68 with prior usage context

20 prior high-snap players

Sources & methodology

Projection snapshots

Feature ad913ee7612b3fab68a6540a1c37a8ab04cbff61766ffc6c2fd4eac81bc5db23
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527

Serving contracts used

Game projection: nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)
Player context: nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)
Forward fantasy: nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')
Market comparisons: nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)
Unit and passing context: nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving

Current support states

Depth support: Both teams available
Availability support: Not yet required
Weather support: Not yet available
Projection confidence (technical): LOW

DAL at NYG

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Full Football

P5 V4 baseline

DAL

NYG

Expected lineup & depth

Overview

Matchup context

Players

DAL

NYG

Quarterback ranges

Dak Prescott · DAL

Jaxson Dart · NYG

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Devin Singletary · NYG

Cam Skattebo · NYG

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Theo Johnson · NYG · TE

Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE

Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR

Malik Nabers · NYG · WR

Darius Slayton · NYG · WR

Fantasy

Game projections

PardonMe vs the Odds

Player props

More

Dak Prescott DAL · QB

Javonte Williams DAL · RB

Emari Demercado DAL · RB

Ryan Flournoy DAL · WR

CeeDee Lamb DAL · WR

George Pickens DAL · WR

Jake Ferguson DAL · TE

Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL · TE

Jaxson Dart NYG · QB

Cam Skattebo NYG · RB

Devin Singletary NYG · RB

Darnell Mooney NYG · WR

Malik Nabers NYG · WR

Malachi Fields NYG · WR

Isaiah Likely NYG · TE

Theo Johnson NYG · TE

Team matchups

DAL offense vs NYG defense

NYG offense vs DAL defense

Passing environment

DAL pass offense vs NYG pass defense

NYG pass offense vs DAL pass defense

Touchdown connections

Weather & venue

Madden talent context

Unit matchup indexes

Quarterback rushing ranges

Depth and status detail

Team role detail

NYG

DAL

Sources & methodology

Build Selection