PardonMe Unified

DEN at KC

Tuesday, September 15 · 12:15 AM

DEN 18.9 — KC 17.1

DEN slight edge · DEN 54.4%

Projected total 36.0 · Confidence: low

PardonMe projects DEN slight edge.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

DEN 18.9 — KC 17.1

DEN · 54.4% win probability

Margin: DEN 1.8
Total: 36.0

As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

DEN 20.5 — KC 21.4

KC · 52.3% win probability

Margin: KC 0.9
Total: 42.0

Confidence: low · Support: 66%

As of Sep 14, 2026 13:09 UTC

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DEN 21.4 — KC 19.4

DEN · 59.0% win probability

Margin: DEN 1.9
Total: 40.8

As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC

Full Football personnel & matchup context

These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.

DEN

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 100%. Missing talent remains unknown.

QB talent: +0.68 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.91 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.45 standardized talent

Secondary: +1.27 standardized talent

Kicking: specialist history unavailable

Punting: 46.1 gross yards per punt · 10 inside the 20

Kick returns: 26.2 yards per return · 22 returns

Punt returns: 10.9 yards per return · 25 returns

KC

Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.

P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 86%. Missing talent remains unknown.

Expected-unit talent unavailable: RB. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.

QB talent: +1.52 standardized talent

Pass protection: +0.94 standardized talent

Pass rush: +0.89 standardized talent

Secondary: +0.45 standardized talent

Kicking: 19/21 field goals in 8 prior games

Punting: 49.3 gross yards per punt · 13 inside the 20

Kick returns: 25.2 yards per return · 22 returns

Punt returns: 4.2 yards per return · 24 returns

Pass efficiency: -1.360
Rush efficiency: +0.075
Sack environment: +0.044
Explosive passing: -0.006
Explosive rushing: +0.017
Turnover rate: +0.007

Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.

Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DENWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

KCWeek 1 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDENKC

Projected points18.917.1

Win probability54.4%45.6%

Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet

Current status52 updates8 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 104 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

KC recent scoring form vs DEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 11.3; opponent allowed 16.7.

DEN recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 20.0.

Advanced player detail →

Bo Nix DEN · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 100% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 29.6 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 18.3 · 80% 7.6–29.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: DEN pass-protection advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB

Current role: RB1
Prior usage: 52% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 14.9 opportunities
Full-PPR: 10.8 · 80% 2.9–18.7
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: KC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

RJ Harvey DEN · RB

Current role: RB2
Prior usage: 53% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 15.5 opportunities
Full-PPR: 12.1 · 80% 4.2–20.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: KC pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Courtland Sutton DEN · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 93% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 7.3 targets
Full-PPR: 11.7 · 80% 4.0–19.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 25% offense
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 7.0 targets
Full-PPR: 12.5 · 80% 4.8–20.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN · WR

Current role: WR2
Prior usage: 74% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.0 targets
Full-PPR: 6.5 · 80% 0.0–14.2
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Evan Engram DEN · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 33% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 3.9 targets
Full-PPR: 6.4 · 80% 0.2–12.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Adam Trautman DEN · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 53% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 2.8 targets
Full-PPR: 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Patrick Mahomes KC · QB

Current role: QB1
Prior usage: 92% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 32.2 pass attempts
Full-PPR: 18.3 · 80% 7.7–29.0
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Sack / pass-rush: DEN pass-rush advantage · Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Emmett Johnson KC · RB

Current role: RB3
Prior usage: Unknown
Availability: Current status: Not Yet Available
Projected workload: 13.3 opportunities
Full-PPR: 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
Projection basis: Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Run environment: DEN run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: DEN pass-defense advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Rashee Rice KC · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 85% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 8.9 targets
Full-PPR: 15.7 · 80% 8.0–23.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Tyquan Thornton KC · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 51% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 4.0 targets
Full-PPR: 7.1 · 80% 0.0–14.8
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Xavier Worthy KC · WR

Current role: WR1
Prior usage: 79% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 5.1 targets
Full-PPR: 8.7 · 80% 1.1–16.4
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 6 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Travis Kelce KC · TE

Current role: TE1
Prior usage: 80% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 6.0 targets
Full-PPR: 9.6 · 80% 3.4–15.8
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 12 targets · 9 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Noah Gray KC · TE

Current role: TE2
Prior usage: 56% offense
Availability: No confirmed update yet
Projected workload: 2.8 targets
Full-PPR: 4.4 · 80% 0.0–10.6
Projection basis: Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
Matchup context: Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
Prior scoring opportunities: Prior red-zone receiving: 2 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown

Team matchups

Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.

Directional team environment

DEN offense vs KC defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentDEN pass-protection advantageDEN allowed 3.6% · KC generated 6.1%

Run environmentMixed evidenceDEN 4.43 YPC · KC allowed 4.01

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Directional team environment

KC offense vs DEN defense

supported_prior_season_team_aggregate

Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.

Sack environmentDEN pass-rush advantageKC allowed 7.4% · DEN generated 10.3%

Run environmentDEN run-defense advantageKC 4.21 YPC · DEN allowed 3.87

Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule

This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.

Passing environment

Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.

Directional passing environment

DEN pass offense vs KC pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionMixed evidenceDEN 63.3% · KC 66.8%

Yards / attemptKC pass-defense advantageDEN 6.41 YPA · KC 6.85 YPA

Pass TDKC pass-defense advantageDEN 4.1% · KC 3.5%

InterceptionDEN passing-offense advantageDEN 1.8% · KC 2.0%

20+ yard passKC pass-defense advantageDEN 7.7% · KC 8.8%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Directional passing environment

KC pass offense vs DEN pass defense

supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate

CompletionDEN pass-defense advantageKC 62.2% · DEN 57.8%

Yards / attemptDEN pass-defense advantageKC 6.76 YPA · DEN 6.08 YPA

Pass TDDEN pass-defense advantageKC 3.9% · DEN 3.0%

InterceptionMixed evidenceKC 2.1% · DEN 1.7%

20+ yard passMixed evidenceKC 8.9% · DEN 6.7%

EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.

Touchdown connections

These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.

DEN offensive TD state2.2 expected10.9% zero · 38.3% 3+

KC offensive TD state2.1 expected12.3% zero · 34.9% 3+

Patrick Mahomes + Rashee RicePatrick Mahomes passing TD + Rashee Rice anytime TDBoth events 35.7% · independent 27.7%

Bo Nix + Jaylen WaddleBo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TDBoth events 27.4% · independent 19.4%

Bo Nix + Courtland SuttonBo Nix passing TD + Courtland Sutton anytime TDBoth events 25.2% · independent 17.8%

Travis Kelce + Patrick MahomesTravis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TDBoth events 23.6% · independent 18.0%

Lil'Jordan Humphrey + Bo NixLil'Jordan Humphrey anytime TD + Bo Nix passing TDBoth events 18.2% · independent 12.7%

Patrick Mahomes + Tyquan ThorntonPatrick Mahomes passing TD + Tyquan Thornton anytime TDBoth events 17.1% · independent 13.0%

Explore touchdown connections

Weather & venue

VenueGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO

Roof typeOpen Air

Playing surfaceGrass

ForecastSupported0.0 hours before kickoff

Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.

Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.

Madden talent context

Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.

DEN · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

DEN · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · DL_rushUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · Front7_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · OL_passUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · OL_runUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · QB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · RB_abilityUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · Secondary_covUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

KC · WR_TE_receivingUnknownPCA1 Unknown · unknown

Unit matchup indexes

DEN vs KCol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

DEN vs KCol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

DEN vs KCqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

DEN vs KCreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

KC vs DENol_pass_vs_dl_rush · Unknown

KC vs DENol_run_vs_front7_run · Unknown

KC vs DENqb_vs_secondary · Unknown

KC vs DENreceiving_vs_secondary · Unknown

Quarterback rushing ranges

Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.

Bo Nix · DEN

Attempts 5.1 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 19 mean · -2–49 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Patrick Mahomes · KC

Attempts 3.3 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 3–59 80%Rush TD 3% 1+

Depth and status detail

Current depthBoth teams available

AvailabilityNot yet required

Practice report timingNot yet required

WeatherNot yet available

Completeness notes

2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
2026 Same Season History Unavailable
Not yet required
Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
Weather Forecast Not Yet Available

Team role detail

KC

90 current depth players

52 with prior usage context

21 prior high-snap players

DEN

58 current depth players

52 with prior usage context

16 prior high-snap players

Sources & methodology

Projection snapshots

Feature c2850a644903ae98ae3aed09475565fe8c6a87351f4a7dd20cb709bfd41da09f
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527

Serving contracts used

Game projection: nfl_matchup_serving(game_id)
Player context: nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id)
Forward fantasy: nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr')
Market comparisons: nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id)
Unit and passing context: nfl_unit_matchups_serving and nfl_passing_matchups_serving

Current support states

Depth support: Both teams available
Availability support: Not yet required
Weather support: Not yet available
Projection confidence (technical): LOW

DEN at KC

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Full Football

P5 V4 baseline

DEN

KC

Expected lineup & depth

Overview

Matchup context

Players

DEN

KC

Quarterback ranges

Bo Nix · DEN

Patrick Mahomes · KC

Running back ranges

J.K. Dobbins · DEN

RJ Harvey · DEN

Emmett Johnson · KC

Receiver and tight end ranges

Evan Engram · DEN · TE

Adam Trautman · DEN · TE

Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR

Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR

Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR

Noah Gray · KC · TE

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Fantasy

Game projections

PardonMe vs the Odds

Player props

More

Bo Nix DEN · QB

J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB

RJ Harvey DEN · RB

Courtland Sutton DEN · WR

Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR

Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN · WR

Evan Engram DEN · TE

Adam Trautman DEN · TE

Patrick Mahomes KC · QB

Emmett Johnson KC · RB

Rashee Rice KC · WR

Tyquan Thornton KC · WR

Xavier Worthy KC · WR

Travis Kelce KC · TE

Noah Gray KC · TE

Team matchups

DEN offense vs KC defense

KC offense vs DEN defense

Passing environment

DEN pass offense vs KC pass defense

KC pass offense vs DEN pass defense

Touchdown connections

Weather & venue

Madden talent context

Unit matchup indexes

Quarterback rushing ranges

Depth and status detail

Team role detail

KC

DEN

Sources & methodology

Build Selection