Bo Nix · DEN
- Attempts
- 30.1 mean · 30.0 median · 19.0–41.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.6 mean · 20.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 207 mean · 195 median · 116–301 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.07 mean · 64% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.65 mean · 47% 1+
PardonMe Unified
DEN at KC
Monday, September 14 · 7:15 PM CDT
DEN 18.9 — KC 17.1
DEN slight edge · DEN 54.4%
Projected total 36.0 · Confidence: low
PardonMe projects
DEN slight edge.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Patrick Mahomes · KC
- Attempts
- 31.9 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.3 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 227 mean · 235 median · 147–314 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.30 mean · 71% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Running back ranges
J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- Opportunities
- 14.6 mean · 15.0 median · 9.9–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.0 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 61 mean · 60 median · 34–87 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 7 median · 0–19 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
RJ Harvey · DEN
- Opportunities
- 15.5 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.5 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 39 median · 19–74 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 21 median · 7–45 80%
- Total TD
- 45% 1+
Emmett Johnson · KC
- Opportunities
- 13.3 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.7 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 16–82 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–34 80%
- Total TD
- 33% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Evan Engram · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 0–49 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Adam Trautman · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 20 median · 10–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 23 median · 12–59 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 54 median · 13–94 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 7.2 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 66 mean · 60 median · 30–104 80%
- Receiving TD
- 31% 1+
Noah Gray · KC · TE
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 9 median · 0–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Travis Kelce · KC · TE
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 47 mean · 44 median · 22–78 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Rashee Rice · KC · WR
- Targets
- 8.8 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 75 mean · 73 median · 36–109 80%
- Receiving TD
- 39% 1+
Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 38 median · 0–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Xavier Worthy · KC · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 37 median · 12–73 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
DEN 18.9 — KC 17.1
DEN · 54.4% win probability
- Margin
- DEN 1.8
- Total
- 36.0
As of Sep 12, 2026 20:59 UTC
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
DEN 20.5 — KC 21.4
KC · 52.3% win probability
- Margin
- KC 0.9
- Total
- 42.0
Confidence: low · Support: 66%
As of Sep 14, 2026 13:09 UTC
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
DEN 21.4 — KC 19.4
DEN · 59.0% win probability
- Margin
- DEN 1.9
- Total
- 40.8
As of Sep 11, 2026 12:00 UTC
Full Football personnel & matchup context
These are descriptive football comparisons, not causal explanations or guaranteed effects.
DEN
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 100%. Missing talent remains unknown.
QB talent: +0.68 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.91 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.45 standardized talent
Secondary: +1.27 standardized talent
Kicking: specialist history unavailable
Punting: 46.1 gross yards per punt · 10 inside the 20
Kick returns: 26.2 yards per return · 22 returns
Punt returns: 10.9 yards per return · 25 returns
KC
Expected from current depth; final active status not yet confirmed.
P9I mapped coverage of reported units: 86%. Missing talent remains unknown.
Expected-unit talent unavailable: RB. Depth or mapped talent support is incomplete.
QB talent: +1.52 standardized talent
Pass protection: +0.94 standardized talent
Pass rush: +0.89 standardized talent
Secondary: +0.45 standardized talent
Kicking: 19/21 field goals in 8 prior games
Punting: 49.3 gross yards per punt · 13 inside the 20
Kick returns: 25.2 yards per return · 22 returns
Punt returns: 4.2 yards per return · 24 returns
- Pass efficiency
- -1.360
- Rush efficiency
- +0.075
- Sack environment
- +0.044
- Explosive passing
- -0.006
- Explosive rushing
- +0.017
- Turnover rate
- +0.007
Contrasts are home offense/opponent-allowed level minus away level. Lower sack/turnover rates and starting distance have different meanings from higher efficiency.
Weather context — descriptive, not a trained model input.
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
DENWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
KCWeek 1 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points18.917.1
Win probability54.4%45.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status67 updates38 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 104 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
KC recent scoring form vs DEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 11.3; opponent allowed 16.7.
DEN recent scoring form vs KC prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 20.0.
Players
DEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
KC
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Patrick MahomesKC · #10 · floor 7.9 · upside 23.8KCQB#1014.97.923.8Bo NixDEN · #25 · floor 6.0 · upside 21.4DENQB#2512.76.021.4RJ HarveyDEN · #13 · floor 4.6 · upside 24.4DENRB#1312.24.624.4J.K. DobbinsDEN · #25 · floor 4.9 · upside 17.8DENRB#259.64.917.8Emmett JohnsonKC · #26 · floor 2.9 · upside 20.4KCRB#269.22.920.4Rashee RiceKC · #3 · floor 6.6 · upside 26.8KCWR#315.56.626.8Jaylen WaddleDEN · #15 · floor 5.0 · upside 22.4DENWR#1512.55.022.4Courtland SuttonDEN · #32 · floor 2.3 · upside 21.1DENWR#3210.72.321.1Xavier WorthyKC · #65 · floor 2.2 · upside 14.9KCWR#656.72.214.9Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · #77 · floor 2.2 · upside 14.7DENWR#776.52.214.7Tyquan ThorntonKC · #79 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.7KCWR#795.80.014.7Travis KelceKC · #7 · floor 4.2 · upside 18.7KCTE#710.24.218.7Evan EngramDEN · #46 · floor 2.0 · upside 11.9DENTE#464.02.011.9Adam TrautmanDEN · #53 · floor 2.0 · upside 8.0DENTE#534.02.08.0Noah GrayKC · #55 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.9KCTE#553.90.09.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
MarketPardonMeBookDifference
Spreaddraftkings · 3.01.8draftkings · 3.0PardonMe is 4.8 higher
Game totaldraftkings · 43.536.0draftkings · 43.5PardonMe is 7.5 lower
Moneylinebetmgm · 57.4%45.6%betmgm · 57.4%PardonMe is 11.8 percentage points lower
Player props
Player / marketPardonMeBookDifference
More
Advanced player detail →
Bo Nix DEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 29.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.3 · 80% 7.6–29.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: DEN pass-protection advantage · Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 14.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.8 · 80% 2.9–18.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: KC pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
RJ Harvey DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 15.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 12.1 · 80% 4.2–20.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: Mixed evidence · Broader team passing environment: KC pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Courtland Sutton DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 93% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 11.7 · 80% 4.0–19.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 7.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.5 · 80% 4.8–20.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 74% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.0–14.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Evan Engram DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.2–12.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adam Trautman DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: Mixed evidence · YPA: KC pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: KC pass-defense advantage · Interception: DEN passing-offense advantage · 20+ pass: KC pass-defense advantage · Broader sack context: DEN pass-protection advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: DEN converted 33/55 trips · KC allowed 27/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Patrick Mahomes KC · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.2 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 18.3 · 80% 7.7–29.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Sack / pass-rush: DEN pass-rush advantage · Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emmett Johnson KC · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 13.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Run environment: DEN run-defense advantage · Broader team passing environment: DEN pass-defense advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rashee Rice KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 15.7 · 80% 8.0–23.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyquan Thornton KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 51% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.1 · 80% 0.0–14.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Worthy KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 79% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.1–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 6 targets · 4 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Travis Kelce KC · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 80% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 6.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 3.4–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 12 targets · 9 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Noah Gray KC · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.4 · 80% 0.0–10.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Completion: DEN pass-defense advantage · YPA: DEN pass-defense advantage · Pass TD: DEN pass-defense advantage · Interception: Mixed evidence · 20+ pass: Mixed evidence · Broader sack context: DEN pass-rush advantage
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: 2 targets · 1 receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: KC converted 34/61 trips · DEN allowed 21/49 · End-zone targets: Unknown
Team matchups
Prior-season team context for pass pressure, sacks, and run environment.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateDEN offense vs KC defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentDEN pass-protection advantageDEN allowed 3.6% · KC generated 6.1%
Run environmentMixed evidenceDEN 4.43 YPC · KC allowed 4.01
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Directional team environment
supported_prior_season_team_aggregateKC offense vs DEN defense
Pass pressureUnknownRetained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
Sack environmentDEN pass-rush advantageKC allowed 7.4% · DEN generated 10.3%
Run environmentDEN run-defense advantageKC 4.21 YPC · DEN allowed 3.87
Sample2025 regular season2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
This context does not change the projection above. Individual assignments and total pressures are still unknown.
Passing environment
Prior-season team passing context for QB/WR/TE. This is not individual coverage grading.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateDEN pass offense vs KC pass defense
CompletionMixed evidenceDEN 63.3% · KC 66.8%
Yards / attemptKC pass-defense advantageDEN 6.41 YPA · KC 6.85 YPA
Pass TDKC pass-defense advantageDEN 4.1% · KC 3.5%
InterceptionDEN passing-offense advantageDEN 1.8% · KC 2.0%
20+ yard passKC pass-defense advantageDEN 7.7% · KC 8.8%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Directional passing environment
supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregateKC pass offense vs DEN pass defense
CompletionDEN pass-defense advantageKC 62.2% · DEN 57.8%
Yards / attemptDEN pass-defense advantageKC 6.76 YPA · DEN 6.08 YPA
Pass TDDEN pass-defense advantageKC 3.9% · DEN 3.0%
InterceptionMixed evidenceKC 2.1% · DEN 1.7%
20+ yard passMixed evidenceKC 8.9% · DEN 6.7%
EPA, CPOE, success rate, and player-level coverage details are still unknown.
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
DEN offensive TD state2.2 expected10.9% zero · 38.3% 3+
KC offensive TD state2.1 expected12.3% zero · 34.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastSupported0.0 hours before kickoff
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.1 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 19 mean · -2–49 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 3.3 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 3–59 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- 2025 Cross Season Bridge Confidence Penalty
- 2026 Same Season History Unavailable
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Prior Season Role Context Not Authoritative M1 Input
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
KC
90 current depth players
52 with prior usage context
21 prior high-snap players
DEN
58 current depth players
52 with prior usage context
16 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature c2850a644903ae98ae3aed09475565fe8c6a87351f4a7dd20cb709bfd41da09f
Prediction c126455fc1d62729eafb667a5558117ebd1906e1976cb910b6dc9200777561cb
Week d7eb1582f253376df43ec1847c18bc025377efa1a89a8431f812f779bd7ff535
As of 2026-09-12 20:59:29.556527
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): LOW