Josh Allen · BUF
- Attempts
- 31.7 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–41.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 234 mean · 254 median · 127–326 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.51 mean · 76% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 50% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
DET at BUF
Thursday, September 17 · 7:15 PM CDT
DET 19.5 — BUF 25.6
BUF edge · BUF 63.3%
Projected total 45.1 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
BUF edge.
Why PardonMe leans BUF →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 114 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Jared Goff · DET
- Attempts
- 33.1 mean · 33.0 median · 23.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.3 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 247 mean · 244 median · 154–325 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.48 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.68 mean · 49% 1+
Running back ranges
James Cook III · BUF
- Opportunities
- 9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.6 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 45 median · 14–89 80%
- Receptions
- 0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–21 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Ty Johnson · BUF
- Opportunities
- 7.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
- Carries
- 4.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 28 mean · 22 median · 12–52 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–36 80%
- Total TD
- 24% 1+
Jahmyr Gibbs · DET
- Opportunities
- 13.9 mean · 15.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.4 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 38 median · 11–71 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 18 median · 0–43 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Sione Vaki · DET
- Opportunities
- 9.0 mean · 8.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.3 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 38 median · 0–79 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 11 median · 0–32 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 40 median · 0–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Dawson Knox · BUF · TE
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 24 median · 0–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Keon Coleman · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 32 median · 10–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
DJ Moore · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 42 median · 14–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 33 median · 12–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Sam LaPorta · DET · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 35 median · 12–59 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Brock Wright · DET · TE
- Targets
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 19 median · 9–36 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 45 median · 0–92 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 4.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 38 median · 11–78 80%
- Receiving TD
- 35% 1+
Jameson Williams · DET · WR
- Targets
- 6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 58 mean · 64 median · 16–97 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
DET 19.5 — BUF 25.6
BUF · 63.3% win probability
- Margin
- BUF 6.1
- Total
- 45.1
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
DETWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
BUFWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.525.6
Win probability36.7%63.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status24 updates61 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 114 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
BUF recent scoring form vs DET prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 27.7; opponent allowed 23.0.
DET recent scoring form vs BUF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.0; opponent allowed 17.3.
Players
DET
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
BUF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Josh AllenBUF · #5 · floor 9.3 · upside 26.7BUFQB#517.09.326.7Jared GoffDET · #21 · floor 7.2 · upside 24.1DETQB#2114.47.224.1Jahmyr GibbsDET · #6 · floor 2.6 · upside 20.4DETRB#610.82.620.4Sione VakiDET · #35 · floor 1.7 · upside 19.3DETRB#358.01.719.3James Cook IIIBUF · #46 · floor 1.6 · upside 17.2BUFRB#467.21.617.2Ty JohnsonBUF · #52 · floor 2.6 · upside 16.7BUFRB#526.02.616.7Jameson WilliamsDET · #4 · floor 2.6 · upside 21.6DETWR#411.22.621.6Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · #13 · floor 0.0 · upside 20.8DETWR#139.70.020.8Isaac TeSlaaDET · #31 · floor 3.4 · upside 18.6DETWR#318.23.418.6Khalil ShakirBUF · #57 · floor 2.3 · upside 16.2BUFWR#578.22.316.2DJ MooreBUF · #65 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.8BUFWR#657.32.415.8Keon ColemanBUF · #75 · floor 2.0 · upside 16.5BUFWR#756.32.016.5Dalton KincaidBUF · #2 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.5BUFTE#27.10.015.5Sam LaPortaDET · #7 · floor 2.2 · upside 14.7DETTE#76.62.214.7Dawson KnoxBUF · #38 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.0BUFTE#384.60.013.0Brock WrightDET · #39 · floor 1.9 · upside 11.7DETTE#393.91.911.7PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Josh Allen BUF · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.5–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
James Cook III BUF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ty Johnson BUF · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- Inactive for Week 1
- Projected workload
- 9.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.8 · 80% 0.0–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Keon Coleman BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 45% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DJ Moore BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 72% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Khalil Shakir BUF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Kincaid BUF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 49% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.2–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dawson Knox BUF · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 64% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.4 · 80% 0.2–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jared Goff DET · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.2 · 80% 4.5–25.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahmyr Gibbs DET · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 71% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Sione Vaki DET · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 0% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Isaac TeSlaa DET · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jameson Williams DET · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Sam LaPorta DET · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 76% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Wright DET · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
BUF offensive TD state2.9 expected5.4% zero · 55.9% 3+
DET offensive TD state2.8 expected6.1% zero · 52.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 6.4 mean · 4.0–10.0 80%Net yards 31 mean · 15–69 80%Rush TD 9% 1+
Attempts 2.1 mean · 1.0–4.0 80%Net yards 6 mean · -3–48 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
BUF
64 current depth players
51 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
DET
84 current depth players
63 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 664d4be581c20fa42f43c2a075cdab87dae0230fcc387db913c43b194c53abed
Prediction 04a8296f5b86983d6c39f5d5f5ef302cf2979d4c707aa0d40d4e1226c70e7771
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence