Tua Tagovailoa · ATL
No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.
Medium uncertainty
P5 V4 baseline
CAR at ATL
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
CAR 19.7 — ATL 23.5
ATL slight edge · ATL 56.9%
Projected total 43.2 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
ATL slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans ATL →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Bryce Young · CAR
- Attempts
- 32.6 mean · 31.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.5 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 230 mean · 217 median · 134–354 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.56 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Running back ranges
Bijan Robinson · ATL
- Opportunities
- 15.5 mean · 16.0 median · 6.0–25.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.6 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 44 mean · 43 median · 8–79 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 17 median · 0–42 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Jonathon Brooks · CAR
- Opportunities
- 12.0 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 31 median · 16–70 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 16 median · 0–46 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Chuba Hubbard · CAR
- Opportunities
- 11.4 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.0 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 32 median · 17–68 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 12 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 28% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 26 median · 0–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 14 median · 0–22 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 25 median · 11–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Drake London · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 42 median · 0–96 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 26 median · 8–53 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 18 median · 8–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 20 median · 9–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Jalen Coker · CAR · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 47 mean · 48 median · 24–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Xavier Legette · CAR · WR
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 34 median · 11–68 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 50 mean · 48 median · 19–91 80%
- Receiving TD
- 34% 1+
14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CAR 19.7 — ATL 23.5
ATL · 56.9% win probability
- Margin
- ATL 3.8
- Total
- 43.2
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CARWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
ATLWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.723.5
Win probability43.1%56.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates43 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
ATL recent scoring form vs CAR prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 19.7; opponent allowed 34.0.
CAR recent scoring form vs ATL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 20.3.
Players
CAR
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
ATL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Bryce YoungCAR · #14 · floor 7.2 · upside 26.0CARQB#1415.17.226.0Tua TagovailoaATL · #32 · floor 5.1 · upside 20.3ATLQB#3211.25.120.3Bijan RobinsonATL · #8 · floor 1.7 · upside 21.5ATLRB#810.71.721.5Jonathon BrooksCAR · #17 · floor 3.2 · upside 20.0CARRB#178.33.220.0Chuba HubbardCAR · #40 · floor 3.0 · upside 17.4CARRB#407.83.017.4Tetairoa McMillanCAR · #9 · floor 3.0 · upside 20.9CARWR#910.13.020.9Jalen CokerCAR · #18 · floor 4.4 · upside 17.5CARWR#188.94.417.5Drake LondonATL · #48 · floor 0.0 · upside 20.2ATLWR#487.20.020.2Xavier LegetteCAR · #83 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.7CARWR#836.42.116.7Olamide ZaccheausATL · #86 · floor 1.8 · upside 13.5ATLWR#866.51.813.5Jahan DotsonATL · #90 · floor 2.2 · upside 13.9ATLWR#906.82.213.9Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL · #26 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.6ATLTE#266.50.014.6Tommy TrembleCAR · #28 · floor 1.9 · upside 12.1CARTE#284.01.912.1Mitchell EvansCAR · #49 · floor 1.8 · upside 9.9CARTE#493.91.89.9Charlie WoernerATL · #62 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.4ATLTE#622.40.08.4PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Tua Tagovailoa ATL · QB
- Current role
- Unavailable
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Inactive for Week 1
- Projected workload
- Unavailable
- Full-PPR
- Unavailable
- Projection basis
- Suppressed by current availability
Bijan Robinson ATL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 84% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.0–17.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahan Dotson ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drake London ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 94% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 20% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Woerner ATL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 6% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Bryce Young CAR · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Preseason Play Status
- Projected workload
- 32.8 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.4 · 80% 4.7–26.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chuba Hubbard CAR · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 61% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonathon Brooks CAR · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 4% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Coker CAR · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Legette CAR · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tetairoa McMillan CAR · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tommy Tremble CAR · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 81% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mitchell Evans CAR · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
ATL offensive TD state2.3 expected10.3% zero · 39.6% 3+
CAR offensive TD state2.2 expected11.4% zero · 36.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 1.5 mean · 0.0–4.0 80%Net yards 1 mean · -1–6 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 4.3 mean · 1.0–9.0 80%Net yards 18 mean · -1–49 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
ATL
92 current depth players
68 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
CAR
91 current depth players
66 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 84dee84df70c2f38e8e79cf0a4fc9d7d755874bd4e1a0d764d6704b6fedbf8ae
Prediction b220fd756dce48e7c6fe7dce4af5e1a252eb85a791da74c84a732069f9f62e60
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence