Caleb Williams · CHI
- Attempts
- 31.1 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.8 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–26.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 213 mean · 211 median · 145–314 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.49 mean · 76% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.65 mean · 48% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
MIN at CHI
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
MIN 21.9 — CHI 26.1
CHI edge · CHI 58.7%
Projected total 48.0 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
CHI edge.
Why PardonMe leans CHI →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 117 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 38 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Kyler Murray · MIN
- Attempts
- 31.1 mean · 30.0 median · 22.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.5 mean · 19.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 203 mean · 197 median · 145–303 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.38 mean · 73% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
Kyle Monangai · CHI
- Opportunities
- 9.5 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.0 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 33 median · 10–77 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
- Total TD
- 26% 1+
D'Andre Swift · CHI
- Opportunities
- 10.4 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.7 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 40 median · 12–69 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 8 median · 0–25 80%
- Total TD
- 28% 1+
Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN
- Opportunities
- 12.7 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 37 mean · 33 median · 12–68 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 13 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
Jordan Mason · MIN
- Opportunities
- 11.3 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.1 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 19–80 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 6 median · 0–18 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Cole Kmet · CHI · TE
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 29 median · 9–40 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Colston Loveland · CHI · TE
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 32 median · 19–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Luther Burden III · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 54 mean · 53 median · 27–92 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Rome Odunze · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 45 median · 0–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.9–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 38 median · 11–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 19 median · 0–46 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Josh Oliver · MIN · TE
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 21 median · 10–42 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jordan Addison · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 26 median · 0–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 40 median · 7–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 34 median · 11–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
MIN 21.9 — CHI 26.1
CHI · 58.7% win probability
- Margin
- CHI 4.2
- Total
- 48.0
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
MINWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
CHIWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.926.1
Win probability41.3%58.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates77 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 117 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 38 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
CHI recent scoring form vs MIN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 37.7; opponent allowed 11.7.
MIN recent scoring form vs CHI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 26.0; opponent allowed 32.7.
Players
MIN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
CHI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Kyler MurrayMIN · #12 · floor 9.1 · upside 24.2MINQB#1215.49.124.2Caleb WilliamsCHI · #18 · floor 8.1 · upside 24.1CHIQB#1814.88.124.1Aaron Jones Sr.MIN · #42 · floor 2.5 · upside 17.5MINRB#427.62.517.5Jordan MasonMIN · #50 · floor 2.6 · upside 16.2MINRB#507.22.616.2D'Andre SwiftCHI · #51 · floor 1.7 · upside 16.0CHIRB#517.41.716.0Kyle MonangaiCHI · #57 · floor 1.4 · upside 16.5CHIRB#575.91.416.5Luther Burden IIICHI · #7 · floor 4.7 · upside 18.6CHIWR#79.44.718.6Jauan JenningsMIN · #58 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.4MINWR#588.62.116.4Rome OdunzeCHI · #59 · floor 1.1 · upside 17.1CHIWR#597.61.117.1Jahdae WalkerCHI · #67 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.1CHIWR#676.82.116.1Justin JeffersonMIN · #77 · floor 1.7 · upside 15.2MINWR#777.11.715.2Jordan AddisonMIN · #79 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.7MINWR#796.00.017.7Colston LovelandCHI · #3 · floor 2.9 · upside 17.2CHITE#36.22.917.2Cole KmetCHI · #23 · floor 1.9 · upside 11.9CHITE#235.91.911.9T.J. HockensonMIN · #34 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.3MINTE#345.70.013.3Josh OliverMIN · #45 · floor 2.0 · upside 10.2MINTE#454.12.010.2PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Caleb Williams CHI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.3 · 80% 6.6–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
D'Andre Swift CHI · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 62% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 10.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyle Monangai CHI · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 37% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.2–17.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Luther Burden III CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 2.0–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rome Odunze CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 77% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 2.0–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jahdae Walker CHI · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 2.0–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cole Kmet CHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 77% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.5–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Colston Loveland CHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 65% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.8 · 80% 0.5–13.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyler Murray MIN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 96% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 31.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.1 · 80% 5.4–26.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 65% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jordan Mason MIN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jordan Addison MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 93% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justin Jefferson MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 76% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jauan Jennings MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 78% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
T.J. Hockenson MIN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Josh Oliver MIN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CHI offensive TD state2.2 expected10.6% zero · 38.9% 3+
MIN offensive TD state2.3 expected9.8% zero · 40.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.3 mean · 1.0–10.0 80%Net yards 22 mean · 1–65 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Attempts 5.5 mean · 3.0–8.0 80%Net yards 36 mean · 22–63 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
CHI
89 current depth players
62 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
MIN
95 current depth players
55 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 5304100f0a6312b11c9fce8f8be68615807961541367dd4122b6d8884caec706
Prediction b4fb6a5fe17fd261c65a070e971133f600b01b3075c1f57094063f8ab1ec76db
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence