Jalen Hurts · PHI
- Attempts
- 32.8 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 226 mean · 217 median · 134–308 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.43 mean · 74% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
PHI at TEN
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
PHI 21.4 — TEN 19.8
PHI slight edge · PHI 58.1%
Projected total 41.2 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
PHI slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans PHI →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 41 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Cam Ward · TEN
- Attempts
- 33.2 mean · 32.0 median · 22.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.5 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 213 mean · 207 median · 129–296 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.40 mean · 74% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 49% 1+
Running back ranges
Saquon Barkley · PHI
- Opportunities
- 14.6 mean · 15.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 46 median · 11–80 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Tony Pollard · TEN
- Opportunities
- 15.0 mean · 14.0 median · 11.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.8 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 46 median · 26–79 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 11 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Tyjae Spears · TEN
- Opportunities
- 11.8 mean · 10.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 34 mean · 30 median · 15–60 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 24 median · 8–47 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 22 median · 0–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 20 median · 0–32 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Darius Cooper · PHI · WR
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 21 median · 0–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 43 median · 0–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 33 median · 10–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 27 median · 12–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 24 median · 7–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 31 median · 0–94 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 53 median · 10–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Carnell Tate · TEN · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 35 median · 12–70 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
PHI 21.4 — TEN 19.8
PHI · 58.1% win probability
- Margin
- PHI 1.6
- Total
- 41.2
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
PHIWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
TENWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.419.8
Win probability58.1%41.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status70 updates43 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 41 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
PHI recent scoring form vs TEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 32.7.
TEN recent scoring form vs PHI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 14.3; opponent allowed 19.3.
Players
PHI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
TEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Jalen HurtsPHI · #11 · floor 8.8 · upside 25.1PHIQB#1115.98.825.1Cam WardTEN · #26 · floor 6.9 · upside 22.8TENQB#2613.86.922.8Tyjae SpearsTEN · #3 · floor 5.6 · upside 20.3TENRB#310.75.620.3Tony PollardTEN · #19 · floor 4.3 · upside 17.6TENRB#199.04.317.6Saquon BarkleyPHI · #34 · floor 1.6 · upside 17.6PHIRB#348.61.617.6Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · #8 · floor 2.0 · upside 19.7TENWR#810.32.019.7DeVonta SmithPHI · #30 · floor 0.0 · upside 19.2PHIWR#309.70.019.2Carnell TateTEN · #60 · floor 2.2 · upside 16.9TENWR#608.72.216.9Dontayvion WicksPHI · #88 · floor 2.0 · upside 14.8PHIWR#886.32.014.8Calvin RidleyTEN · #89 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.3TENWR#896.70.016.3Darius CooperPHI · #95 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.2PHIWR#954.10.012.2Daniel BellingerTEN · #20 · floor 2.2 · upside 12.9TENTE#204.72.212.9Dallas GoedertPHI · #22 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.2PHITE#224.20.016.2Gunnar HelmTEN · #24 · floor 1.7 · upside 12.8TENTE#245.41.712.8Johnny MundtPHI · #61 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.3PHITE#613.00.08.3PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Jalen Hurts PHI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.7 · 80% 5.1–26.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Saquon Barkley PHI · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DeVonta Smith PHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dontayvion Wicks PHI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 6% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Darius Cooper PHI · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 29% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.0 · 80% 0.0–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dallas Goedert PHI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Johnny Mundt PHI · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.4 · 80% 0.0–10.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cam Ward TEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 9% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.8 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.4 · 80% 5.8–27.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tony Pollard TEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyjae Spears TEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Calvin Ridley TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.4 · 80% 0.7–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Carnell Tate TEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Gunnar Helm TEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Daniel Bellinger TEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
PHI offensive TD state2.7 expected6.8% zero · 50.5% 3+
TEN offensive TD state1.9 expected15.4% zero · 28.8% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueNissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 6.1 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 29 mean · 5–46 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Attempts 2.9 mean · 1.0–6.0 80%Net yards 15 mean · 2–37 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
TEN
92 current depth players
67 with prior usage context
22 prior high-snap players
PHI
77 current depth players
59 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 1502abb361089f27b2bfddee69eeba950356d43b3d98fb2d7e9159e6556455d9
Prediction d746bcb6a493630dce747b8efee652b2d6639015048e4e0af0674d293df03217
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence