Drake Maye · NE
- Attempts
- 31.6 mean · 32.0 median · 21.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 255 mean · 270 median · 164–345 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.64 mean · 79% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.68 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
PIT at NE
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
PIT 18.3 — NE 26.1
NE edge · NE 68.0%
Projected total 44.4 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
NE edge.
Why PardonMe leans NE →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 113 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 31 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Aaron Rodgers · PIT
- Attempts
- 33.2 mean · 34.0 median · 21.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.9 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 223 mean · 226 median · 125–297 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.15 mean · 67% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
TreVeyon Henderson · NE
- Opportunities
- 13.5 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.4 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 56 mean · 52 median · 22–96 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
- Total TD
- 38% 1+
Rhamondre Stevenson · NE
- Opportunities
- 10.6 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.1 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 36 median · 18–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Eli Heidenreich · PIT
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 38 median · 13–79 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Jaylen Warren · PIT
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.5 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 45 median · 23–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 10 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 33% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Hunter Henry · NE · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 26 median · 0–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Eli Raridon · NE · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 19 median · 10–57 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Romeo Doubs · NE · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 45 mean · 40 median · 14–78 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
DeMario Douglas · NE · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 56 mean · 47 median · 30–92 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Mack Hollins · NE · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 40 median · 15–89 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 36 median · 12–60 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Darnell Washington · PIT · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 22 median · 0–56 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
DK Metcalf · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 45 median · 16–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 29 median · 8–69 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Roman Wilson · PIT · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 38 median · 24–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
PIT 18.3 — NE 26.1
NE · 68.0% win probability
- Margin
- NE 7.8
- Total
- 44.4
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
PITWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
NEWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points18.326.1
Win probability32.0%68.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates74 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 113 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 31 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NE recent scoring form vs PIT prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 30.0; opponent allowed 16.7.
PIT recent scoring form vs NE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 11.0.
Players
PIT
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
NE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Drake MayeNE · #3 · floor 10.2 · upside 27.7NEQB#317.610.227.7Aaron RodgersPIT · #31 · floor 6.2 · upside 21.1PITQB#3112.66.221.1TreVeyon HendersonNE · #5 · floor 3.6 · upside 21.1NERB#510.53.621.1Rhamondre StevensonNE · #15 · floor 3.6 · upside 18.9NERB#158.93.618.9Eli HeidenreichPIT · #24 · floor 2.4 · upside 19.4PITRB#248.52.419.4Jaylen WarrenPIT · #27 · floor 3.7 · upside 17.5PITRB#278.93.717.5DeMario DouglasNE · #11 · floor 5.0 · upside 17.9NEWR#1110.15.017.9DK MetcalfPIT · #23 · floor 2.6 · upside 18.3PITWR#239.82.618.3Roman WilsonPIT · #35 · floor 4.4 · upside 16.5PITWR#359.04.416.5Mack HollinsNE · #43 · floor 2.5 · upside 18.2NEWR#438.52.518.2Romeo DoubsNE · #46 · floor 2.4 · upside 17.6NEWR#468.32.417.6Michael Pittman Jr.PIT · #73 · floor 1.8 · upside 17.9PITWR#735.91.817.9Pat FreiermuthPIT · #9 · floor 2.2 · upside 13.2PITTE#96.62.213.2Hunter HenryNE · #10 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.0NETE#106.70.015.0Eli RaridonNE · #21 · floor 2.0 · upside 13.8NETE#213.92.013.8Darnell WashingtonPIT · #37 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.3PITTE#375.30.012.3PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Drake Maye NE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.1 · 80% 6.4–27.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rhamondre Stevenson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
TreVeyon Henderson NE · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.8 · 80% 2.9–18.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Romeo Doubs NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DeMario Douglas NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 41% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mack Hollins NE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 72% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.8–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Hunter Henry NE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 72% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.3–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eli Raridon NE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.3–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Aaron Rodgers PIT · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 33.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.9 · 80% 4.2–25.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Warren PIT · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 46% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eli Heidenreich PIT · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.8
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DK Metcalf PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 86% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 89% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Roman Wilson PIT · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Pat Freiermuth PIT · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–11.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Darnell Washington PIT · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–11.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
NE offensive TD state2.7 expected6.9% zero · 49.9% 3+
PIT offensive TD state2.3 expected10.3% zero · 39.6% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.5 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 27 mean · 2–47 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 2.3 mean · 1.0–4.0 80%Net yards 8 mean · -4–40 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
NE
103 current depth players
64 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
PIT
82 current depth players
49 with prior usage context
12 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature cf4ded822ae2861257baf17efeb2a5a2539b8654b8a03c7942781228ed62d956
Prediction 3cee165ba31778dd15390dffddea37663297703869d82997f2f062e0ad004bf8
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence