Jordan Love · GB
- Attempts
- 33.0 mean · 33.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.3 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 236 mean · 248 median · 141–316 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.46 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.70 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
GB at NYJ
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
GB 20.0 — NYJ 21.1
Nearly even · NYJ 49.5%
Projected total 41.1 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans NYJ →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 110 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 43 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Geno Smith · NYJ
- Attempts
- 33.3 mean · 31.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 226 mean · 217 median · 130–302 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.54 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.75 mean · 52% 1+
Running back ranges
Chris Brooks · GB
- Opportunities
- 12.4 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.2 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 54 mean · 48 median · 29–88 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–24 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
MarShawn Lloyd · GB
- Opportunities
- 13.0 mean · 14.0 median · 7.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.8 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 39 median · 18–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Braelon Allen · NYJ
- Opportunities
- 11.0 mean · 9.0 median · 7.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 36 median · 24–66 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 15 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 33% 1+
Breece Hall · NYJ
- Opportunities
- 13.9 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.2 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 49 mean · 48 median · 24–78 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Tucker Kraft · GB · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 30 median · 0–89 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Jonnu Smith · GB · TE
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 22 median · 7–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Matthew Golden · GB · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 50 mean · 54 median · 28–79 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Jayden Reed · GB · WR
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 48 median · 24–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Christian Watson · GB · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 51 mean · 51 median · 18–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 17 median · 8–34 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 19 median · 0–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 51 mean · 43 median · 14–99 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 33 median · 0–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 59 median · 0–83 80%
- Receiving TD
- 32% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
GB 20.0 — NYJ 21.1
NYJ · 49.5% win probability
- Margin
- NYJ 1.1
- Total
- 41.1
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
GBWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
NYJWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points20.021.1
Win probability50.5%49.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status54 updates73 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 110 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 43 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
NYJ recent scoring form vs GB prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 13.7; opponent allowed 32.0.
GB recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 16.3; opponent allowed 29.0.
Players
GB
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
NYJ
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Jordan LoveGB · #23 · floor 7.0 · upside 23.9GBQB#2314.57.023.9Geno SmithNYJ · #27 · floor 6.2 · upside 23.0NYJQB#2713.46.223.0Chris BrooksGB · #12 · floor 4.7 · upside 18.8GBRB#129.04.718.8Breece HallNYJ · #23 · floor 3.5 · upside 17.3NYJRB#239.13.517.3Braelon AllenNYJ · #29 · floor 3.8 · upside 17.7NYJRB#298.33.817.7MarShawn LloydGB · #31 · floor 3.0 · upside 18.2GBRB#318.33.018.2Garrett WilsonNYJ · #6 · floor 0.0 · upside 20.3NYJWR#610.90.020.3Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · #19 · floor 2.4 · upside 20.5NYJWR#197.32.420.5Christian WatsonGB · #20 · floor 2.8 · upside 19.5GBWR#209.12.819.5Matthew GoldenGB · #22 · floor 4.8 · upside 16.4GBWR#229.44.816.4Jayden ReedGB · #44 · floor 3.4 · upside 15.9GBWR#448.83.415.9Adonai MitchellNYJ · #76 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.2NYJWR#767.60.017.2Tucker KraftGB · #6 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.4GBTE#66.00.017.4Jonnu SmithGB · #16 · floor 1.7 · upside 12.8GBTE#165.21.712.8Jeremy RuckertNYJ · #41 · floor 1.8 · upside 11.1NYJTE#414.51.811.1Mason TaylorNYJ · #50 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.9NYJTE#503.90.012.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Jordan Love GB · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.5 · 80% 4.8–26.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
MarShawn Lloyd GB · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Brooks GB · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 27% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Matthew Golden GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 49% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jayden Reed GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian Watson GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 80% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tucker Kraft GB · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 49% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Returned To Practice
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–11.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonnu Smith GB · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 4.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.4 · 80% 4.2–16.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Geno Smith NYJ · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 33.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.9 · 80% 6.2–27.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Breece Hall NYJ · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 48% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.0–17.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Braelon Allen NYJ · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 10% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.0–17.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Garrett Wilson NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jeremy Ruckert NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mason Taylor NYJ · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 66% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
GB offensive TD state2.8 expected6.1% zero · 52.9% 3+
NYJ offensive TD state2.0 expected13.9% zero · 31.5% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.7 mean · 1.0–5.0 80%Net yards 11 mean · -1–29 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 2.5 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 4 mean · -6–14 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
NYJ
88 current depth players
57 with prior usage context
23 prior high-snap players
GB
75 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature bd5d503b1bcb9ba3da1688eda1b45bb6b9c2c810c1d8cd4c10ca9ab7437bfb7a
Prediction 2e09998a31a8555a971f40bfca3bcecee730eb6a133d83e12fc88aae46b66b3d
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence