Deshaun Watson · CLE
- Attempts
- 33.3 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 209 mean · 200 median · 129–294 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.26 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 50% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
CLE at TB
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
CLE 18.3 — TB 22.8
TB edge · TB 59.0%
Projected total 41.1 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
TB edge.
Why PardonMe leans TB →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 98 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 31 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Baker Mayfield · TB
- Attempts
- 33.3 mean · 32.0 median · 24.0–47.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.2 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 225 mean · 219 median · 132–357 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.46 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.80 mean · 54% 1+
Running back ranges
Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- Opportunities
- 12.8 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.2 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 38 median · 17–68 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 7 median · 0–26 80%
- Total TD
- 33% 1+
Raheim Sanders · CLE
- Opportunities
- 11.2 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.1 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 45 mean · 40 median · 21–77 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 12 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Bucky Irving · TB
- Opportunities
- 13.6 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.3 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 40 median · 14–67 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 23 median · 0–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 17 median · 0–27 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Denzel Boston · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 52 mean · 46 median · 15–92 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 39 median · 16–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 15 median · 0–27 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Payne Durham · TB · TE
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 9 median · 0–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Cade Otton · TB · TE
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 24 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 26 median · 0–64 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 34 median · 0–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jalen McMillan · TB · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 51 median · 25–91 80%
- Receiving TD
- 34% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CLE 18.3 — TB 22.8
TB · 59.0% win probability
- Margin
- TB 4.4
- Total
- 41.1
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CLEWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
TBWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points18.322.8
Win probability41.0%59.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates75 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 98 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 31 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
CLE recent scoring form vs TB prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 14.3; opponent allowed 22.3.
TB recent scoring form vs CLE prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.0; opponent allowed 19.3.
Players
CLE
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
TB
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Baker MayfieldTB · #13 · floor 7.7 · upside 25.4TBQB#1315.57.725.4Deshaun WatsonCLE · #24 · floor 8.3 · upside 22.7CLEQB#2414.48.322.7Raheim SandersCLE · #22 · floor 3.5 · upside 18.6CLERB#228.53.518.6Bucky IrvingTB · #32 · floor 2.5 · upside 17.5TBRB#328.62.517.5Quinshon JudkinsCLE · #43 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.1CLERB#437.92.317.1Jalen McMillanTB · #3 · floor 4.5 · upside 22.0TBWR#311.44.522.0Denzel BostonCLE · #12 · floor 2.5 · upside 19.6CLEWR#1210.22.519.6Chris Godwin Jr.TB · #49 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.6TBWR#498.40.018.6Jerry JeudyCLE · #56 · floor 2.7 · upside 17.4CLEWR#567.02.717.4Emeka EgbukaTB · #93 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.8TBWR#934.70.013.8Tylan WallaceCLE · #96 · floor 0.0 · upside 8.6CLEWR#962.60.08.6Cade OttonTB · #15 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.5TBTE#155.40.015.5Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · #29 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.5CLETE#294.30.015.5Blake WhiteheartCLE · #54 · floor 1.7 · upside 9.8CLETE#543.81.79.8Payne DurhamTB · #64 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.9TBTE#641.90.09.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Deshaun Watson CLE · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.2 · 80% 4.5–25.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quinshon Judkins CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 39% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Raheim Sanders CLE · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 27% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Denzel Boston CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jerry Jeudy CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tylan Wallace CLE · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 2% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 2.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.8 · 80% 0.0–11.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Blake Whiteheart CLE · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 65% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Baker Mayfield TB · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 33.2 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.7 · 80% 6.0–27.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Bucky Irving TB · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.5–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Godwin Jr. TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 70% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.5–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen McMillan TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 55% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.3 · 80% 2.6–17.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cade Otton TB · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 96% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Payne Durham TB · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 27% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.5 · 80% 0.0–9.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CLE offensive TD state2.2 expected11.4% zero · 36.9% 3+
TB offensive TD state2.3 expected10.1% zero · 40.3% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.4 mean · 3.0–8.0 80%Net yards 28 mean · 14–39 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 4.1 mean · 1.0–6.0 80%Net yards 27 mean · 1–49 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
TB
91 current depth players
56 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
CLE
67 current depth players
42 with prior usage context
11 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 2b9de143fce7bf6ec34f2aae6472d94bebbc84f46d5aabe167fef5dd2aa9098b
Prediction 1b2360dd5aa74ed1394b378d8fe289322a4b76e1b24c49d8b37c06d98860e8b3
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence