Lamar Jackson · BAL
- Attempts
- 31.2 mean · 32.0 median · 16.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 19.5 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 233 mean · 223 median · 138–316 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.32 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 51% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
NO at BAL
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
NO 21.1 — BAL 26.9
BAL edge · BAL 63.4%
Projected total 48.0 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
BAL edge.
Why PardonMe leans BAL →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 98 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Tyler Shough · NO
- Attempts
- 32.0 mean · 31.0 median · 20.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.0 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 236 mean · 240 median · 137–320 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.24 mean · 69% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
Derrick Henry · BAL
- Opportunities
- 13.0 mean · 14.0 median · 4.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.1 mean · 13.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 50 mean · 50 median · 6–92 80%
- Receptions
- 0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 6 mean · 0 median · 0–16 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Justice Hill · BAL
- Opportunities
- 8.5 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
- Carries
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 32 mean · 24 median · 12–61 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 27 median · 8–52 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Travis Etienne Jr. · NO
- Opportunities
- 11.5 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.5 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 36 mean · 37 median · 13–60 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 9 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Alvin Kamara · NO
- Opportunities
- 10.3 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.9 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 37 mean · 35 median · 13–67 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 15 median · 0–36 80%
- Total TD
- 28% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Mark Andrews · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 20 median · 0–39 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Durham Smythe · BAL · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 14 median · 5–28 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 36 median · 11–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Zay Flowers · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 50 mean · 48 median · 20–91 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Devontez Walker · BAL · WR
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 28 median · 0–46 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Noah Fant · NO · TE
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 15 median · 0–42 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Juwan Johnson · NO · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 26 median · 0–74 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Kevin Austin Jr. · NO · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 37 median · 12–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Chris Olave · NO · WR
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 45 mean · 43 median · 0–96 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Devaughn Vele · NO · WR
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 38 median · 14–74 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
NO 21.1 — BAL 26.9
BAL · 63.4% win probability
- Margin
- BAL 5.8
- Total
- 48.0
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
NOWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
BALWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.126.9
Win probability36.6%63.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status57 updates56 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 98 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
BAL recent scoring form vs NO prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 35.3; opponent allowed 25.3.
NO recent scoring form vs BAL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 24.3.
Players
NO
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
BAL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Tyler ShoughNO · #16 · floor 8.2 · upside 23.7NOQB#1615.18.223.7Lamar JacksonBAL · #19 · floor 8.1 · upside 23.8BALQB#1914.78.123.8Justice HillBAL · #2 · floor 5.2 · upside 21.2BALRB#210.45.221.2Alvin KamaraNO · #33 · floor 1.9 · upside 18.8NORB#338.31.918.8Travis Etienne Jr.NO · #45 · floor 2.0 · upside 16.8NORB#457.82.016.8Derrick HenryBAL · #47 · floor 0.8 · upside 17.8BALRB#477.40.817.8Chris OlaveNO · #26 · floor 0.0 · upside 20.4NOWR#269.70.020.4Zay FlowersBAL · #28 · floor 3.0 · upside 18.5BALWR#288.83.018.5Devaughn VeleNO · #38 · floor 2.4 · upside 17.7NOWR#388.92.417.7Kevin Austin Jr.NO · #80 · floor 2.2 · upside 14.9NOWR#806.72.214.9Rashod BatemanBAL · #85 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.8BALWR#856.62.114.8Devontez WalkerBAL · #94 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.5BALWR#944.80.013.5Juwan JohnsonNO · #12 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.0NOTE#124.60.015.0Durham SmytheBAL · #51 · floor 1.5 · upside 10.1BALTE#514.11.510.1Mark AndrewsBAL · #53 · floor 1.2 · upside 10.0BALTE#534.11.210.0Noah FantNO · #56 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.4NOTE#564.30.010.4PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Lamar Jackson BAL · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.2 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.7 · 80% 7.0–28.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Derrick Henry BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 71% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justice Hill BAL · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rashod Bateman BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.8–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Zay Flowers BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.8–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Devontez Walker BAL · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 73% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–13.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mark Andrews BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 59% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.7 · 80% 0.5–12.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Durham Smythe BAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.7 · 80% 0.5–12.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyler Shough NO · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.8 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.8 · 80% 5.2–26.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Travis Etienne Jr. NO · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 54% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 11.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Alvin Kamara NO · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 14% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.2 · 80% 2.3–18.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Olave NO · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 91% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Returned To Practice
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Devaughn Vele NO · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 55% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kevin Austin Jr. NO · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 97% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Juwan Johnson NO · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Noah Fant NO · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 22% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
BAL offensive TD state2.4 expected9.3% zero · 42.3% 3+
NO offensive TD state2.0 expected12.9% zero · 33.6% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.8 mean · 2.0–7.0 80%Net yards 21 mean · 7–43 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 5.1 mean · 2.0–8.0 80%Net yards 23 mean · 6–55 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
BAL
74 current depth players
38 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
NO
89 current depth players
60 with prior usage context
16 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 41e1ace398de32bf92732fa1458c09c7532cc9a04de8351f6e82c93a2065e917
Prediction 5ab4bcfb7e75871e53e5e9c7439683bc6869973a056f337677680bd9bed5d22b
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence