Joe Burrow · CIN
- Attempts
- 31.2 mean · 31.0 median · 20.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.2 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 218 mean · 225 median · 109–281 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.63 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.68 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
CIN at HOU
Sunday, September 20 · 12:00 PM CDT
CIN 22.3 — HOU 24.8
HOU slight edge · HOU 53.0%
Projected total 47.1 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
HOU slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans HOU →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 95 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
C.J. Stroud · HOU
- Attempts
- 31.8 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.0 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 226 mean · 227 median · 159–312 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.37 mean · 73% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 50% 1+
Running back ranges
Chase Brown · CIN
- Opportunities
- 11.9 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 37 median · 10–70 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 14 median · 0–34 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Samaje Perine · CIN
- Opportunities
- 11.1 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.3 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 36 median · 20–72 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 13 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Woody Marks · HOU
- Opportunities
- 11.6 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 37 median · 12–66 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
David Montgomery · HOU
- Opportunities
- 10.9 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 33 median · 17–67 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 0–42 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Drew Sample · CIN · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 13 median · 6–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 6.3 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 37 median · 0–107 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Tee Higgins · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 44 median · 0–86 80%
- Receiving TD
- 33% 1+
Andrei Iosivas · CIN · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 36 median · 11–62 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Foster Moreau · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 32 median · 9–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 0–59 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Nico Collins · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 54 mean · 50 median · 0–113 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 40 median · 15–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Jared Wayne · HOU · WR
- Targets
- 4.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 33 median · 9–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
CIN 22.3 — HOU 24.8
HOU · 53.0% win probability
- Margin
- HOU 2.5
- Total
- 47.1
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
CINWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
HOUWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points22.324.8
Win probability47.0%53.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status37 updates49 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 95 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 37 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
HOU recent scoring form vs CIN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 20.3.
CIN recent scoring form vs HOU prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 27.3.
Players
CIN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
HOU
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Joe BurrowCIN · #25 · floor 6.6 · upside 23.4CINQB#2514.26.623.4C.J. StroudHOU · #28 · floor 7.0 · upside 22.1HOUQB#2813.57.022.1Chase BrownCIN · #13 · floor 2.0 · upside 19.5CINRB#139.52.019.5Samaje PerineCIN · #28 · floor 3.8 · upside 17.8CINRB#288.43.817.8David MontgomeryHOU · #49 · floor 2.6 · upside 16.3HOURB#497.32.616.3Woody MarksHOU · #54 · floor 1.7 · upside 15.7HOURB#546.81.715.7Nico CollinsHOU · #14 · floor 0.0 · upside 21.6HOUWR#149.00.021.6Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · #21 · floor 0.0 · upside 23.6CINWR#216.80.023.6Tee HigginsCIN · #33 · floor 0.0 · upside 19.4CINWR#339.70.019.4Xavier HutchinsonHOU · #54 · floor 2.5 · upside 16.2HOUWR#547.02.516.2Andrei IosivasCIN · #81 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.9CINWR#816.72.114.9Jared WayneHOU · #82 · floor 1.9 · upside 16.8HOUWR#826.01.916.8Foster MoreauHOU · #13 · floor 1.9 · upside 12.5HOUTE#136.21.912.5Dalton SchultzHOU · #35 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.9HOUTE#354.00.013.9Mike GesickiCIN · #43 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.0CINTE#434.10.012.0Drew SampleCIN · #52 · floor 1.6 · upside 10.1CINTE#523.41.610.1PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Joe Burrow CIN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 99% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.1 · 80% 5.4–26.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chase Brown CIN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Samaje Perine CIN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 49% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ja'Marr Chase CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tee Higgins CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 87% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Andrei Iosivas CIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Drew Sample CIN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 72% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Gesicki CIN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 38% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
C.J. Stroud HOU · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.0 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.5–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
David Montgomery HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 11.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Woody Marks HOU · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nico Collins HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Hutchinson HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 84% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jared Wayne HOU · WR
- Current role
- WR3
- Prior usage
- 44% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Dalton Schultz HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 16% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.3–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Foster Moreau HOU · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 28% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.3–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
CIN offensive TD state2.4 expected9.3% zero · 42.3% 3+
HOU offensive TD state2.5 expected8.0% zero · 46.1% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueNRG Stadium · Houston, TX
Roof typeRetractable
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Retractable roof state Unknown; supported exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.4 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 8 mean · 0–20 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 3.5 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 8 mean · 0–30 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
HOU
65 current depth players
45 with prior usage context
18 prior high-snap players
CIN
72 current depth players
50 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 08b4123f7ed51c19ca8ef065df52c369bb53997dfc33d11314e201cb67f6d2a9
Prediction 880b8dbb636992b7be8115b3f00e8aa7067afe0f1504c879dd7a14066051413e
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence