Bo Nix · DEN
- Attempts
- 34.0 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.7 mean · 23.0 median · 15.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 239 mean · 227 median · 144–334 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.23 mean · 69% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 51% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
JAX at DEN
Sunday, September 20 · 3:05 PM CDT
JAX 24.2 — DEN 20.7
JAX slight edge · JAX 64.1%
Projected total 44.9 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
JAX slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans JAX →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 109 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Trevor Lawrence · JAX
- Attempts
- 31.2 mean · 30.0 median · 22.0–39.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.2 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–27.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 239 mean · 250 median · 153–330 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.92 mean · 85% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.67 mean · 49% 1+
Running back ranges
J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- Opportunities
- 13.6 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.4 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 52 mean · 52 median · 26–78 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 6 median · 0–16 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
RJ Harvey · DEN
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 35 mean · 30 median · 12–63 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 19 mean · 15 median · 0–39 80%
- Total TD
- 38% 1+
Ameer Abdullah · JAX
- Opportunities
- 8.4 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 31 mean · 26 median · 11–58 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 22 median · 0–47 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX
- Opportunities
- 10.3 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.5 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 44 mean · 41 median · 18–73 80%
- Receptions
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Evan Engram · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 24 median · 0–52 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Adam Trautman · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 19 median · 9–38 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Pat Bryant · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 47 mean · 41 median · 16–78 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 43 median · 0–83 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 46 median · 0–90 80%
- Receiving TD
- 24% 1+
Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 20 median · 10–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Brenton Strange · JAX · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 35 median · 0–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 44 median · 12–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 43 mean · 44 median · 15–73 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
CJ Williams · JAX · WR
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
JAX 24.2 — DEN 20.7
JAX · 64.1% win probability
- Margin
- JAX 3.5
- Total
- 44.9
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
JAXWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
DENWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points24.220.7
Win probability64.1%35.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status23 updates67 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 109 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
JAX recent scoring form vs DEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 32.7; opponent allowed 15.7.
DEN recent scoring form vs JAX prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 16.3; opponent allowed 11.3.
Players
JAX
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
DEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Trevor LawrenceJAX · #1 · floor 10.1 · upside 27.9JAXQB#117.810.127.9Bo NixDEN · #22 · floor 7.3 · upside 23.5DENQB#2214.67.323.5RJ HarveyDEN · #10 · floor 2.9 · upside 21.0DENRB#109.62.921.0Ameer AbdullahJAX · #11 · floor 3.3 · upside 20.8JAXRB#118.93.320.8J.K. DobbinsDEN · #41 · floor 3.7 · upside 15.7DENRB#418.03.715.7Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · #56 · floor 2.1 · upside 15.4JAXRB#566.62.115.4Pat BryantDEN · #32 · floor 4.9 · upside 17.0DENWR#329.34.917.0Jaylen WaddleDEN · #42 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.5DENWR#4210.00.018.5Jakobi MeyersJAX · #55 · floor 2.2 · upside 16.5JAXWR#558.52.216.5Courtland SuttonDEN · #63 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.0DENWR#637.40.018.0Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · #66 · floor 2.5 · upside 15.8JAXWR#667.42.515.8CJ WilliamsJAX · #72 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.3JAXWR#726.82.317.3Brenton StrangeJAX · #8 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.2JAXTE#86.50.014.2Nate BoerkircherJAX · #18 · floor 2.0 · upside 14.1JAXTE#184.02.014.1Evan EngramDEN · #31 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.3DENTE#314.40.012.3Adam TrautmanDEN · #33 · floor 1.9 · upside 11.7DENTE#335.71.911.7PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Bo Nix DEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 33.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.2 · 80% 5.5–26.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
RJ Harvey DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.6 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Courtland Sutton DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 93% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.5–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.5–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Pat Bryant DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 16% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.5–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Evan Engram DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adam Trautman DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 53% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.0 · 80% 0.0–12.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Trevor Lawrence JAX · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.8 · 80% 5.1–26.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 10.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.0–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ameer Abdullah JAX · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 12% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 10.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.0–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jakobi Meyers JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 96% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.3–16.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 77% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.3–16.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
CJ Williams JAX · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.3–16.6
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brenton Strange JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Nate Boerkircher JAX · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
DEN offensive TD state2.4 expected8.9% zero · 43.6% 3+
JAX offensive TD state2.4 expected8.9% zero · 43.6% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 4.9 mean · 2.0–9.0 80%Net yards 19 mean · 2–49 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 4.4 mean · 2.0–8.0 80%Net yards 23 mean · 3–51 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
DEN
59 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
17 prior high-snap players
JAX
89 current depth players
56 with prior usage context
17 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 2967b494a82998c222508d334b4c0d970fb761a9a1e6e05ec5384a60769c18f7
Prediction a51194991dc7adcde15f037a8e6dc42698ae3a9d12eacb42bb48c7186ab9a7b6
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence