PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
P5 V4 baseline
LV at LAC
Sunday, September 20 · 8:05 PM
LV 19.2 — LAC 20.4
Nearly even · LAC 49.0%
Projected total 39.6 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans LAC →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 106 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
LV 19.2 — LAC 20.4
LAC · 49.0% win probability
- Margin
- LAC 1.2
- Total
- 39.6
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
LVWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
LACWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.220.4
Win probability51.0%49.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status71 updates59 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 106 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
LAC recent scoring form vs LV prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 11.0; opponent allowed 19.7.
LV recent scoring form vs LAC prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 21.7.
Players
LV
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
LAC
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Kirk Cousins · LV
- Attempts
- 33.5 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.2 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 223 mean · 209 median · 133–345 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.43 mean · 75% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Justin Herbert · LAC
- Attempts
- 34.3 mean · 34.0 median · 25.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.6 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 243 mean · 248 median · 144–347 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.56 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.79 mean · 54% 1+
Running back ranges
Ashton Jeanty · LV
- Opportunities
- 16.0 mean · 15.0 median · 5.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–20.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 36 mean · 34 median · 4–65 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 14 median · 0–38 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Mike Washington Jr. · LV
- Opportunities
- 12.9 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.7 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 40 median · 20–87 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 8 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Omarion Hampton · LAC
- Opportunities
- 15.7 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 12.7 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 44 median · 19–76 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 35% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Brock Bowers · LV · TE
- Targets
- 6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 45 median · 15–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Michael Mayer · LV · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 23 median · 0–52 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Jack Bech · LV · WR
- Targets
- 4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 34 median · 11–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Jalen Nailor · LV · WR
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 47 mean · 47 median · 15–79 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Tre Tucker · LV · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 35 median · 13–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 22 median · 0–34 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
David Njoku · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 16 median · 0–52 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Tre' Harris · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 33 median · 21–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 44 median · 16–87 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 37 median · 12–86 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Justin HerbertLAC · #6 · floor 8.8 · upside 26.3LACQB#616.78.826.3Kirk CousinsLV · #30 · floor 5.7 · upside 21.7LVQB#3012.45.721.7Omarion HamptonLAC · #7 · floor 3.8 · upside 20.1LACRB#710.53.820.1Mike Washington Jr.LV · #16 · floor 3.2 · upside 19.9LVRB#168.73.219.9Ashton JeantyLV · #25 · floor 0.7 · upside 19.7LVRB#258.90.719.7Quentin JohnstonLAC · #25 · floor 2.6 · upside 19.5LACWR#258.72.619.5Ladd McConkeyLAC · #37 · floor 2.2 · upside 19.4LACWR#378.92.219.4Jalen NailorLV · #45 · floor 2.6 · upside 16.4LVWR#457.82.616.4Tre' HarrisLAC · #52 · floor 4.1 · upside 16.4LACWR#528.44.116.4Tre TuckerLV · #71 · floor 2.3 · upside 14.9LVWR#716.52.314.9Jack BechLV · #84 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.6LVWR#846.42.114.6Brock BowersLV · #1 · floor 2.5 · upside 20.9LVTE#110.42.520.9Michael MayerLV · #40 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.1LVTE#404.30.013.1David NjokuLAC · #48 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.4LACTE#484.50.013.4Charlie KolarLAC · #59 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.2LACTE#593.20.09.2PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Kirk Cousins LV · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 33.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.3 · 80% 4.6–25.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ashton Jeanty LV · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 97% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Washington Jr. LV · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.5 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Nailor LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tre Tucker LV · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jack Bech LV · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 58% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.9–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Bowers LV · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 98% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 3.0–15.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Mayer LV · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.6 · 80% 0.0–11.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justin Herbert LAC · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 34.2 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.3 · 80% 5.6–27.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Omarion Hampton LAC · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 3% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quentin Johnston LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 77% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ladd McConkey LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 88% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tre' Harris LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 57% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Kolar LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 25% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 2.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.5 · 80% 0.0–9.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
David Njoku LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 9% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.8 · 80% 0.0–12.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
LV offensive TD state1.8 expected16.6% zero · 26.8% 3+
LAC offensive TD state2.4 expected9.1% zero · 42.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueSoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
Roof typeFixed Roof
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastNot ApplicableForecast lead time unknown
Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.0 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 0 mean · -6–5 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 5.3 mean · 2.0–10.0 80%Net yards 28 mean · 0–66 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
LAC
82 current depth players
48 with prior usage context
15 prior high-snap players
LV
87 current depth players
58 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 6ba7362e6ab32bb585bbe4c35edd89373283eaf0643fe6c65584c179b68f2642
Prediction 36d8ccc3a5dfb03a18e3f937b1c10566cbb5cbd64ab958c27ecc1243f4b4c303
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence