PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
P5 V4 baseline
WAS at DAL
Sunday, September 20 · 8:25 PM
WAS 21.1 — DAL 23.1
DAL slight edge · DAL 51.9%
Projected total 44.2 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
DAL slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans DAL →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 144 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 41 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
WAS 21.1 — DAL 23.1
DAL · 51.9% win probability
- Margin
- DAL 2.1
- Total
- 44.2
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
WASWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
DALWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.123.1
Win probability48.1%51.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status44 updates3 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 144 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 41 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
WAS recent scoring form vs DAL prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.0; opponent allowed 28.3.
DAL recent scoring form vs WAS prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 22.3; opponent allowed 23.7.
Players
WAS
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
DAL
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Dak Prescott · DAL
- Attempts
- 32.6 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–42.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 249 mean · 253 median · 150–335 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.50 mean · 76% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.71 mean · 50% 1+
Jayden Daniels · WAS
- Attempts
- 31.7 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.8 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 224 mean · 231 median · 137–305 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.48 mean · 76% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.68 mean · 48% 1+
Running back ranges
Javonte Williams · DAL
- Opportunities
- 11.5 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.0 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 47 median · 21–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 6 median · 0–21 80%
- Total TD
- 35% 1+
Emari Demercado · DAL
- Opportunities
- 10.4 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 51 mean · 40 median · 21–92 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS
- Opportunities
- 11.8 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.0 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 43 median · 22–75 80%
- Receptions
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Rachaad White · WAS
- Opportunities
- 10.2 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 36 median · 15–63 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 14 median · 0–34 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 16 median · 0–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 21 median · 10–42 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 37 median · 13–98 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 49 mean · 57 median · 0–85 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
George Pickens · DAL · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 50 mean · 45 median · 0–90 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
John Bates · WAS · TE
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 19 median · 9–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 22 median · 0–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Treylon Burks · WAS · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 34 mean · 28 median · 15–53 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR
- Targets
- 5.2 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 45 median · 19–100 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR
- Targets
- 6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 61 mean · 49 median · 26–107 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Jayden DanielsWAS · #7 · floor 9.3 · upside 25.8WASQB#716.39.325.8Dak PrescottDAL · #17 · floor 7.8 · upside 24.0DALQB#1715.07.824.0Emari DemercadoDAL · #4 · floor 4.6 · upside 21.3DALRB#49.94.621.3Rachaad WhiteWAS · #26 · floor 3.2 · upside 17.7WASRB#269.03.217.7Javonte WilliamsDAL · #36 · floor 2.9 · upside 17.0DALRB#368.42.917.0Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · #53 · floor 2.8 · upside 15.4WASRB#536.82.815.4Stefon DiggsWAS · #1 · floor 6.6 · upside 23.6WASWR#111.16.623.6Ryan FlournoyDAL · #17 · floor 2.3 · upside 21.6DALWR#178.32.321.6Terry McLaurinWAS · #29 · floor 2.9 · upside 20.4WASWR#297.62.920.4CeeDee LambDAL · #34 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.1DALWR#349.70.018.1George PickensDAL · #36 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.5DALWR#3610.00.018.5Treylon BurksWAS · #87 · floor 2.5 · upside 13.7WASWR#877.02.513.7Chig OkonkwoWAS · #30 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.2WASTE#306.10.012.2Jake FergusonDAL · #44 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.3DALTE#445.40.012.3Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · #55 · floor 2.0 · upside 10.2DALTE#554.12.010.2John BatesWAS · #58 · floor 1.9 · upside 9.9WASTE#583.91.99.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Dak Prescott DAL · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 51% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.0 · 80% 6.3–27.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Javonte Williams DAL · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 27% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emari Demercado DAL · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 22% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.6 · 80% 1.7–17.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ryan Flournoy DAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 87% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
CeeDee Lamb DAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 45% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
George Pickens DAL · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 45% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jake Ferguson DAL · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 31% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jayden Daniels WAS · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.1 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.8 · 80% 5.1–26.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rachaad White WAS · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Treylon Burks WAS · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.0 · 80% 0.0–14.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Terry McLaurin WAS · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 70% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Stefon Diggs WAS · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 6.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 12.7 · 80% 5.1–20.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
John Bates WAS · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 59% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Camp Absence Reported Without Official Participation Level
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.8 · 80% 0.0–12.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chig Okonkwo WAS · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 80% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.8 · 80% 0.0–12.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
DAL offensive TD state2.9 expected5.4% zero · 55.9% 3+
WAS offensive TD state2.8 expected6.3% zero · 52.3% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 3.0 mean · 1.0–5.0 80%Net yards 9 mean · -4–24 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Attempts 6.8 mean · 3.0–10.0 80%Net yards 34 mean · 12–62 80%Rush TD 3% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
DAL
92 current depth players
68 with prior usage context
20 prior high-snap players
WAS
96 current depth players
76 with prior usage context
21 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature b56da5ae90f36d5af3ab9af596293c770b4cfcda1c1662618a12183dd296c5e8
Prediction fde313fbf289f949aaac8c59569c77f82bd2a195af4b7f28ba593064b1183d85
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence