PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
P5 V4 baseline
SEA at ARI
Sunday, September 20 · 8:25 PM
SEA 21.5 — ARI 20.7
Nearly even · SEA 55.7%
Projected total 42.2 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans SEA →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 122 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 30 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
SEA 21.5 — ARI 20.7
SEA · 55.7% win probability
- Margin
- SEA 0.8
- Total
- 42.2
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
SEAWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
ARIWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points21.520.7
Win probability55.7%44.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status42 updates17 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 122 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 30 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
ARI recent scoring form vs SEA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.0; opponent allowed 7.7.
SEA recent scoring form vs ARI prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 29.3.
Players
SEA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
ARI
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Jacoby Brissett · ARI
- Attempts
- 33.4 mean · 34.0 median · 22.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.7 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 231 mean · 224 median · 142–301 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.50 mean · 76% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 50% 1+
Sam Darnold · SEA
- Attempts
- 32.3 mean · 31.0 median · 25.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.9 mean · 20.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 232 mean · 254 median · 135–293 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.24 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.75 mean · 52% 1+
Running back ranges
Tyler Allgeier · ARI
- Opportunities
- 11.7 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.3 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 41 mean · 38 median · 18–64 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 7 median · 0–21 80%
- Total TD
- 36% 1+
Jeremiyah Love · ARI
- Opportunities
- 12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 4.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 39 median · 14–72 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 13 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Jadarian Price · SEA
- Opportunities
- 12.9 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.5 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 19–81 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 13 median · 0–30 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Emanuel Wilson · SEA
- Opportunities
- 12.1 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 18–81 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 30 mean · 30 median · 11–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Trey McBride · ARI · TE
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 35 mean · 35 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 28 median · 12–103 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Marvin Harrison Jr. · ARI · WR
- Targets
- 4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 40 median · 0–83 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Michael Wilson · ARI · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 50 mean · 43 median · 0–124 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
AJ Barner · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 21 median · 10–50 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Eric Saubert · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
- Receiving TD
- 10% 1+
Montorie Foster Jr. · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 45 mean · 40 median · 13–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 64 mean · 69 median · 0–113 80%
- Receiving TD
- 32% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Jacoby BrissettARI · #20 · floor 7.3 · upside 24.2ARIQB#2014.37.324.2Sam DarnoldSEA · #29 · floor 6.4 · upside 21.5SEAQB#2913.06.421.5Jadarian PriceSEA · #14 · floor 3.3 · upside 19.3SEARB#148.83.319.3Jeremiyah LoveARI · #20 · floor 2.7 · upside 18.9ARIRB#208.92.718.9Emanuel WilsonSEA · #39 · floor 2.5 · upside 18.0SEARB#397.62.518.0Tyler AllgeierARI · #44 · floor 2.9 · upside 16.4ARIRB#447.72.916.4Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · #2 · floor 0.0 · upside 23.9SEAWR#213.40.023.9Michael WilsonARI · #10 · floor 0.0 · upside 25.2ARIWR#107.40.025.2Cooper KuppSEA · #47 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.6SEAWR#477.12.317.6Kendrick BourneARI · #61 · floor 2.2 · upside 19.8ARIWR#617.32.219.8Montorie Foster Jr.SEA · #69 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1SEAWR#696.82.318.1Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · #78 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.9ARIWR#787.00.017.9Trey McBrideARI · #5 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.5ARITE#57.50.015.5Elijah HigginsARI · #11 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.0ARITE#116.02.114.0AJ BarnerSEA · #17 · floor 2.0 · upside 14.0SEATE#176.02.014.0Eric SaubertSEA · #63 · floor 0.0 · upside 7.8SEATE#631.80.07.8PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Jacoby Brissett ARI · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.3 · 80% 5.6–26.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyler Allgeier ARI · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 37% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jeremiyah Love ARI · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kendrick Bourne ARI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 33% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Michael Wilson ARI · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 93% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Trey McBride ARI · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 95% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Elijah Higgins ARI · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.9 · 80% 0.0–12.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Sam Darnold SEA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 100% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.6 · 80% 4.9–26.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jadarian Price SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 12.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emanuel Wilson SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- 18% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 12.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.6–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cooper Kupp SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 78% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 69% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Montorie Foster Jr. SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
AJ Barner SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 90% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eric Saubert SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 44% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 1.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.3 · 80% 0.0–9.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
ARI offensive TD state2.0 expected12.9% zero · 33.6% 3+
SEA offensive TD state2.8 expected6.3% zero · 52.3% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.9 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 13 mean · 0–22 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 2.7 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 7 mean · -1–23 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
ARI
100 current depth players
70 with prior usage context
15 prior high-snap players
SEA
79 current depth players
52 with prior usage context
15 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 336e6000a2335394e89c778d935d6b112c9294d6e46268a7d6eaa3789d236a75
Prediction e6f4b73374837280c4bed95b1d78ec0eefc776ab7af98585fbdb441dadc6b3f9
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence