Malik Willis · MIA
- Attempts
- 33.2 mean · 31.0 median · 22.0–47.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.6 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–32.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 257 mean · 247 median · 126–411 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.31 mean · 70% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
MIA at SF
Sunday, September 20 · 3:25 PM CDT
MIA 18.0 — SF 25.4
SF edge · SF 66.6%
Projected total 43.4 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
SF edge.
Why PardonMe leans SF →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 90 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 24 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Brock Purdy · SF
- Attempts
- 32.5 mean · 32.5 median · 26.0–40.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.0 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 241 mean · 233 median · 135–320 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.90 mean · 84% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.75 mean · 53% 1+
Running back ranges
De'Von Achane · MIA
- Opportunities
- 14.6 mean · 15.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.2 mean · 12.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 54 mean · 53 median · 10–91 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- Opportunities
- 7.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 26 mean · 21 median · 10–52 80%
- Receptions
- 0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 6 mean · 6 median · 0–18 80%
- Total TD
- 23% 1+
Kaelon Black · SF
- Opportunities
- 12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.4 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 45 mean · 43 median · 16–77 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Christian McCaffrey · SF
- Opportunities
- 14.4 mean · 15.0 median · 4.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.6 mean · 11.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 38 median · 4–72 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 17 median · 0–43 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 27 median · 14–60 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 25 mean · 21 median · 10–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Chris Bell · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 27 median · 14–82 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 52 mean · 44 median · 15–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 24 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
George Kittle · SF · TE
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 37 median · 0–71 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jake Tonges · SF · TE
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 18 median · 0–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Mike Evans · SF · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 38 median · 0–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Demarcus Robinson · SF · WR
- Targets
- 6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 48 median · 23–72 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
De'Zhaun Stribling · SF · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
MIA 18.0 — SF 25.4
SF · 66.6% win probability
- Margin
- SF 7.5
- Total
- 43.4
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
MIAWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
SFWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points18.025.4
Win probability33.4%66.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates68 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 90 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 24 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
MIA recent scoring form vs SF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 14.3; opponent allowed 19.3.
SF recent scoring form vs MIA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 24.0; opponent allowed 27.3.
Players
MIA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
SF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Malik WillisMIA · #2 · floor 9.3 · upside 28.2MIAQB#217.79.328.2Brock PurdySF · #4 · floor 9.2 · upside 27.4SFQB#417.29.227.4De'Von AchaneMIA · #1 · floor 2.0 · upside 21.9MIARB#111.92.021.9Christian McCaffreySF · #9 · floor 0.8 · upside 21.8SFRB#910.30.821.8Kaelon BlackSF · #30 · floor 2.6 · upside 18.4SFRB#308.42.618.4Ollie Gordon IIMIA · #58 · floor 1.4 · upside 12.6MIARB#583.81.412.6Caleb DouglasMIA · #15 · floor 2.5 · upside 19.7MIAWR#159.92.519.7Demarcus RobinsonSF · #41 · floor 4.3 · upside 16.3SFWR#418.84.316.3Mike EvansSF · #51 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.5SFWR#519.10.018.5Chris BellMIA · #62 · floor 2.4 · upside 17.9MIAWR#627.12.417.9De'Zhaun StriblingSF · #70 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1SFWR#706.82.318.1Jalen TolbertMIA · #92 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.0MIAWR#924.50.015.0George KittleSF · #4 · floor 0.0 · upside 17.0SFTE#46.70.017.0Greg DulcichMIA · #14 · floor 2.4 · upside 13.2MIATE#146.72.413.2Will KacmarekMIA · #32 · floor 2.0 · upside 14.0MIATE#324.12.014.0Jake TongesSF · #46 · floor 0.0 · upside 15.3SFTE#462.80.015.3PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Malik Willis MIA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 83% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 33.5 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.0 · 80% 4.4–25.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
De'Von Achane MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.3–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ollie Gordon II MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 36% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 8.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–13.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Bell MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Active Nfi
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Caleb Douglas MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Tolbert MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 38% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–13.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Greg Dulcich MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Will Kacmarek MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Purdy SF · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.5–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian McCaffrey SF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.7 · 80% 1.8–17.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kaelon Black SF · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.7 · 80% 1.8–17.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Evans SF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 75% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Demarcus Robinson SF · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- 40% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
De'Zhaun Stribling SF · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–16.9
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
George Kittle SF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 22% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.3 · 80% 0.1–12.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jake Tonges SF · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 48% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
MIA offensive TD state2.4 expected9.1% zero · 42.9% 3+
SF offensive TD state2.7 expected6.6% zero · 51.1% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 6.0 mean · 1.0–9.0 80%Net yards 39 mean · 3–73 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Attempts 3.9 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 18 mean · -7–44 80%Rush TD 5% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
SF
57 current depth players
40 with prior usage context
10 prior high-snap players
MIA
88 current depth players
50 with prior usage context
14 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature bab325d837ef6102ae65584bc6b00f6ae2f9225bc1ca1c07a1202c995319f5f1
Prediction e6424b4108b4f449228630277680f2ec7f97e4d8f92ff4be545d3eb0cac0bf9a
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence