PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
P5 V4 baseline
IND at KC
Monday, September 21 · 12:20 AM
IND 19.8 — KC 22.8
KC slight edge · KC 54.6%
Projected total 42.7 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
KC slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans KC →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 108 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Model comparison
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
IND 19.8 — KC 22.8
KC · 54.6% win probability
- Margin
- KC 3.0
- Total
- 42.7
As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
INDWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
KCWeek 2 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.822.8
Win probability45.4%54.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status15 updates8 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 108 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
KC recent scoring form vs IND prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 18.7; opponent allowed 34.0.
IND recent scoring form vs KC prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 14.7.
Players
IND
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
KC
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
Depth chart not confirmed yet.
Projection ranges →
Quarterback ranges
Daniel Jones · IND
- Attempts
- 32.9 mean · 31.0 median · 26.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.2 mean · 21.0 median · 16.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 247 mean · 235 median · 173–345 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.70 mean · 80% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.72 mean · 51% 1+
Patrick Mahomes · KC
- Attempts
- 32.8 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 20.3 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 234 mean · 242 median · 153–322 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.37 mean · 73% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.75 mean · 52% 1+
Running back ranges
DJ Giddens · IND
- Opportunities
- 6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
- Carries
- 5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 24 mean · 19 median · 0–57 80%
- Receptions
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 17% 1+
Jonathan Taylor · IND
- Opportunities
- 12.5 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.9 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 45 mean · 39 median · 9–85 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 8 median · 0–25 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Emmett Johnson · KC
- Opportunities
- 12.5 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.1 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 35 median · 16–75 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 13 median · 0–35 80%
- Total TD
- 31% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE
- Targets
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 18 mean · 18 median · 0–29 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Tyler Warren · IND · TE
- Targets
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 21 median · 0–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Josh Downs · IND · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 32 median · 11–63 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
Alec Pierce · IND · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 53 mean · 41 median · 0–121 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Keenan Allen · IND · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 31 median · 11–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Noah Gray · KC · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 10 median · 0–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Travis Kelce · KC · TE
- Targets
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 28 mean · 27 median · 0–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Rashee Rice · KC · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.5 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 38 median · 14–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 56 mean · 54 median · 16–92 80%
- Receiving TD
- 28% 1+
Xavier Worthy · KC · WR
- Targets
- 5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 39 median · 14–75 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Daniel JonesIND · #8 · floor 8.7 · upside 26.0INDQB#816.28.726.0Patrick MahomesKC · #15 · floor 8.2 · upside 24.4KCQB#1515.58.224.4Emmett JohnsonKC · #21 · floor 3.2 · upside 19.2KCRB#218.53.219.2Jonathan TaylorIND · #37 · floor 1.3 · upside 18.9INDRB#377.91.318.9DJ GiddensIND · #59 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.1INDRB#592.80.012.1Tyquan ThorntonKC · #16 · floor 2.6 · upside 19.9KCWR#168.52.619.9Alec PierceIND · #27 · floor 0.0 · upside 21.1INDWR#279.10.021.1Rashee RiceKC · #40 · floor 2.4 · upside 18.0KCWR#409.02.418.0Josh DownsIND · #53 · floor 2.1 · upside 16.3INDWR#538.22.116.3Xavier WorthyKC · #64 · floor 2.4 · upside 15.2KCWR#647.02.415.2Keenan AllenIND · #74 · floor 2.1 · upside 18.0INDWR#746.12.118.0Travis KelceKC · #27 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.2KCTE#274.70.013.2Tyler WarrenIND · #42 · floor 0.0 · upside 12.0INDTE#424.20.012.0Mo Alie-CoxIND · #57 · floor 1.9 · upside 9.8INDTE#573.81.99.8Noah GrayKC · #60 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.7KCTE#603.90.09.7PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Daniel Jones IND · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 23% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.6 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.3 · 80% 4.6–26.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonathan Taylor IND · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- 52% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.7 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
DJ Giddens IND · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- 31% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 7.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 5.3 · 80% 0.0–13.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Josh Downs IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 63% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Alec Pierce IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 68% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Keenan Allen IND · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 60% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyler Warren IND · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 82% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.8 · 80% 0.0–12.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mo Alie-Cox IND · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 42% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.5 · 80% 0.0–10.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Patrick Mahomes KC · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- 92% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 32.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.5–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emmett Johnson KC · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 12.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.0–17.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Rashee Rice KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 85% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tyquan Thornton KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 51% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Xavier Worthy KC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- 79% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.1 · 80% 1.4–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Travis Kelce KC · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- 80% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Noah Gray KC · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- 56% offense
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.1 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
IND offensive TD state2.4 expected8.9% zero · 43.6% 3+
KC offensive TD state2.3 expected9.6% zero · 41.6% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceGrass
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 3.3 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 13 mean · 1–53 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Attempts 3.6 mean · 1.0–7.0 80%Net yards 24 mean · 3–59 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
KC
94 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
21 prior high-snap players
IND
79 current depth players
55 with prior usage context
19 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature d6e19def0cd67b59e06e673436dc99be4385a64cb9f500e28765627dd7db61f3
Prediction b779964dfc7e107c7909e29fc1a54dbcd4d09bde84b65f75a3518eb4ab5de40b
Week d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
As of 2026-09-17 23:48:31
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence