P5 V4 baseline

IND at KC

Sunday, September 20 · 7:20 PM CDT

IND 19.8 — KC 22.8

KC slight edge · KC 54.6%

Projected total 42.7 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects KC slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans KC →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 108 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

Attempts
32.9 mean · 31.0 median · 26.0–45.0 80%
Completions
22.2 mean · 21.0 median · 16.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
247 mean · 235 median · 173–345 80%
Passing TD
1.70 mean · 80% 1+
Interceptions
0.72 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Patrick Mahomes · KC

Attempts
32.8 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–44.0 80%
Completions
20.3 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
234 mean · 242 median · 153–322 80%
Passing TD
1.37 mean · 73% 1+
Interceptions
0.75 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
12.5 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–21.0 80%
Carries
10.9 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 39 median · 9–85 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
12.5 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.1 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
42 mean · 35 median · 16–75 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 13 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 18 median · 0–29 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 32 median · 11–63 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
High

Alec Pierce · IND · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 41 median · 0–121 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 31 median · 11–80 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Noah Gray · KC · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 10 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 27 median · 0–61 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.5 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 38 median · 14–75 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
Medium

Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
56 mean · 54 median · 16–92 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 39 median · 14–75 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

IND 19.8 — KC 22.8

KC · 54.6% win probability

Margin
KC 3.0
Total
42.7

As of Sep 17, 2026 23:48 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

INDWeek 2 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

KCWeek 2 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonINDKC
Projected points19.822.8
Win probability45.4%54.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status30 updates38 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 108 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

KC recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.7; opponent allowed 34.0.

IND recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 14.7.