P5 V4 baseline

PIT at CLE

Thursday, October 1 · 7:15 PM CDT

PIT 19.7 — CLE 21.2

Nearly even · CLE 50.6%

Projected total 40.8 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans CLE →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 112 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Deshaun Watson · CLE

Attempts
32.4 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–44.0 80%
Completions
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
203 mean · 196 median · 125–284 80%
Passing TD
1.21 mean · 68% 1+
Interceptions
0.68 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Aaron Rodgers · PIT

Attempts
35.1 mean · 36.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
Completions
23.3 mean · 23.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
239 mean · 244 median · 135–313 80%
Passing TD
1.22 mean · 69% 1+
Interceptions
0.69 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
11.8 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Carries
10.4 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
38 mean · 34 median · 14–65 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
Medium

Raheim Sanders · CLE

Opportunities
7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–17.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
34 mean · 30 median · 10–66 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–24 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Eli Heidenreich · PIT

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Jaylen Warren · PIT

Opportunities
12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
Carries
10.7 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
47 mean · 44 median · 23–75 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 10 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 21 median · 0–62 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 51 median · 17–85 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 26 median · 0–73 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 36 median · 12–60 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Darnell Washington · PIT · TE

Targets
1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 23 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

DK Metcalf · PIT · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 43 median · 14–86 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 29 median · 9–69 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Roman Wilson · PIT · WR

Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 40 median · 13–66 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

PIT 19.7 — CLE 21.2

CLE · 50.6% win probability

Margin
CLE 1.5
Total
40.8

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

PITWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

C: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

CB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

CB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

DE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

DT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

FB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

H: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

K: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

KR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LG: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LILB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LOLB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LS: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

NCB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

NT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

OLB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

P: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

PR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RG: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RILB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

ROLB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

S: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Aaron Rodgers · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Mason Rudolph · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Will Howard · Availability unknown

QB official #4 — Drew Allar · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jaylen Warren · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rico Dowdle · Out

RB official #3 — Eli Heidenreich · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Travis Homer · Released

TE official #1 — Pat Freiermuth · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Darnell Washington · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #2 — Robert Tonyan · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Roman Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kaden Wetjen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DK Metcalf · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ben Skowronek · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Michael Pittman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Germie Bernard · Availability unknown

CLEWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

C: Backup availability is not confirmed.

CB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

CB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

FS: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

H: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

K: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

KR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LDE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LDT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LG: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LS: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

LT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

MIKE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

P: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

PR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RDE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RDT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RG: Backup availability is not confirmed.

RT: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

SAM: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

SS: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WILL: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Taylen Green · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Raheim Sanders · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Carsen Ryan · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Out

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — KC Concepcion Jr. · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonPITCLE
Projected points19.721.2
Win probability49.4%50.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 112 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PIT recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 23.7.

CLE recent scoring form vs PIT prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 20.0.