P5 V4 baseline

IND at WAS

Sunday, October 4 · 8:30 AM CDT

IND 20.7 — WAS 23.1

WAS slight edge · WAS 53.1%

Projected total 43.8 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects WAS slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans WAS →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 148 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Daniel Jones · IND

Attempts
34.0 mean · 32.0 median · 27.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.9 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
256 mean · 244 median · 181–357 80%
Passing TD
1.76 mean · 81% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

Attempts
33.7 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.3 mean · 22.0 median · 15.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
242 mean · 250 median · 153–329 80%
Passing TD
1.58 mean · 78% 1+
Interceptions
0.71 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 22 median · 7–61 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–16 80%
Total TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
14.1 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–23.0 80%
Carries
12.4 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 47 median · 16–94 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
12.7 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–18.0 80%
Carries
11.8 mean · 11.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 46 median · 26–80 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
9.4 mean · 10.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 33 median · 12–60 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 14 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 19 median · 10–30 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 29 median · 10–49 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 32 median · 11–63 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Laquon Treadwell · IND · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 37 median · 0–74 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 30 median · 10–69 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 20 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 22 median · 0–52 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 26 median · 14–52 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 27 median · 0–82 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 49 median · 26–107 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

IND 20.7 — WAS 23.1

WAS · 53.1% win probability

Margin
WAS 2.4
Total
43.8

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

INDWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Limited

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Darius Slayton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Limited

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Did not participate

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

WASWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Limited

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Did not participate

RB official #3 — Austin Ekeler · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kaytron Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — John Bates · Current status: Camp Absence Reported Without Official Participation Level

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Limited

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Limited

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonINDWAS
Projected points20.723.1
Win probability46.9%53.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status30 updates60 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 148 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

IND recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.0; opponent allowed 30.7.

WAS recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 30.3.