P5 V4 baseline

NE at BUF

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

NE 17.7 — BUF 26.4

BUF clear edge · BUF 69.7%

Projected total 44.1 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects BUF clear edge.
Why PardonMe leans BUF →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 138 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Josh Allen · BUF

Attempts
27.4 mean · 27.0 median · 17.0–37.0 80%
Completions
18.6 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Passing yards
209 mean · 227 median · 111–288 80%
Passing TD
1.35 mean · 72% 1+
Interceptions
0.62 mean · 45% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Drake Maye · NE

Attempts
32.6 mean · 33.0 median · 22.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.1 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
265 mean · 284 median · 172–353 80%
Passing TD
1.67 mean · 80% 1+
Interceptions
0.70 mean · 49% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
10.2 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.7 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Targets
0.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 46 median · 14–92 80%
Receptions
0.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
9.1 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
34 mean · 28 median · 17–60 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 17 median · 0–43 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
High

TreVeyon Henderson · NE

Opportunities
12.7 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–20.0 80%
Carries
10.8 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 48 median · 18–90 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Rhamondre Stevenson · NE

Opportunities
12.7 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Carries
9.8 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 43 median · 23–84 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 41 median · 0–69 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 23 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 33 median · 11–66 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 43 median · 14–72 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 30 median · 10–69 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Hunter Henry · NE · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 23 median · 0–59 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Eli Raridon · NE · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 11 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Romeo Doubs · NE · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 26 median · 0–77 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

DeMario Douglas · NE · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
57 mean · 47 median · 31–93 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Mack Hollins · NE · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 37 median · 12–86 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NE 17.7 — BUF 26.4

BUF · 69.7% win probability

Margin
BUF 8.6
Total
44.1

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NEWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full

QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited

TE official #3 — Tanner Arkin · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cameron Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Mack Hollins · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Romeo Doubs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Mack Hollins · Availability unknown

BUFWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Inactive for Week 1

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Limited

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 1

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Joshua Palmer · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNEBUF
Projected points17.726.4
Win probability30.3%69.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates61 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 138 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BUF recent scoring form vs NE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 33.7; opponent allowed 17.0.

NE recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 12.0; opponent allowed 26.0.