P5 V4 baseline

NYJ at CHI

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

NYJ 18.5 — CHI 25.2

CHI edge · CHI 65.6%

Projected total 43.6 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects CHI edge.
Why PardonMe leans CHI →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 137 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Caleb Williams · CHI

Attempts
32.1 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–41.0 80%
Completions
20.6 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–27.0 80%
Passing yards
228 mean · 225 median · 158–330 80%
Passing TD
1.53 mean · 77% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Geno Smith · NYJ

Attempts
32.3 mean · 30.0 median · 22.0–45.0 80%
Completions
21.3 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
221 mean · 212 median · 131–295 80%
Passing TD
1.53 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.72 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Kyle Monangai · CHI

Opportunities
10.5 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–20.0 80%
Carries
8.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
42 mean · 36 median · 14–81 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
Medium

D'Andre Swift · CHI

Opportunities
12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Carries
10.6 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
49 mean · 47 median · 19–77 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Braelon Allen · NYJ

Opportunities
9.1 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Carries
7.4 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 30 median · 19–60 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
Medium

Breece Hall · NYJ

Opportunities
13.8 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Carries
12.1 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 49 median · 25–79 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Cole Kmet · CHI · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 20 median · 10–30 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Colston Loveland · CHI · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 12 median · 0–60 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Luther Burden III · CHI · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 52 median · 26–91 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
Medium

Rome Odunze · CHI · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 44 median · 0–73 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 38 median · 11–65 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 9 median · 0–34 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 19 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Malik McClain · NYJ · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR

Targets
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 31 median · 0–73 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 47 median · 0–71 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NYJ 18.5 — CHI 25.2

CHI · 65.6% win probability

Margin
CHI 6.7
Total
43.6

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NYJWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Full

TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Did not participate

TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Limited

TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited

TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik McClain · Waived

WR official #3 — Jamaal Pritchett · Waived

CHIWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Did not participate

QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Cole Kmet · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNYJCHI
Projected points18.525.2
Win probability34.4%65.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates77 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 137 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CHI recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 20.3.

NYJ recent scoring form vs CHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.3; opponent allowed 17.7.