P5 V4 baseline

JAX at CIN

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

JAX 22.4 — CIN 22.7

Nearly even · CIN 47.1%

Projected total 45.0 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans CIN →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 128 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Joe Burrow · CIN

Attempts
34.1 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
Completions
23.2 mean · 23.0 median · 15.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
244 mean · 254 median · 125–315 80%
Passing TD
1.76 mean · 81% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Trevor Lawrence · JAX

Attempts
33.3 mean · 32.0 median · 24.0–41.0 80%
Completions
21.8 mean · 22.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
258 mean · 269 median · 170–354 80%
Passing TD
2.04 mean · 86% 1+
Interceptions
0.72 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
13.5 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–21.0 80%
Carries
10.5 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 41 median · 13–73 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–37 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

Opportunities
8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 29 median · 14–62 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
High

Ameer Abdullah · JAX

Opportunities
7.6 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Carries
4.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 25 median · 0–56 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 19 median · 0–45 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX

Opportunities
9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.7 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 41 median · 18–73 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
5 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 20 median · 0–41 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 7–30 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 35 median · 0–105 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 56 median · 14–84 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Colbie Young · CIN · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 34 median · 11–68 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE

Targets
2.3 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 10 median · 0–41 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Brenton Strange · JAX · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 23 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 44 median · 11–66 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 44 median · 15–73 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

CJ Williams · JAX · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

15 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

JAX 22.4 — CIN 22.7

CIN · 47.1% win probability

Margin
CIN 0.3
Total
45.0

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

JAXWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Limited

RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Limited

WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown

CINWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown

HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown

HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown

QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tanner Hudson · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Erick All Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Mitch Tinsley · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Did not participate

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonJAXCIN
Projected points22.422.7
Win probability52.9%47.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status23 updates37 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 128 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs JAX prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.7; opponent allowed 12.0.

JAX recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.3; opponent allowed 21.0.