P5 V4 baseline

ARI at NYG

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

ARI 19.2 — NYG 21.0

NYG slight edge · NYG 51.0%

Projected total 40.2 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects NYG slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans NYG →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 150 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 10 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

Attempts
33.5 mean · 34.0 median · 22.0–46.0 80%
Completions
22.1 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
234 mean · 227 median · 144–308 80%
Passing TD
1.52 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jameis Winston · NYG

Attempts
36.1 mean · 35.0 median · 25.0–47.0 80%
Completions
22.9 mean · 22.0 median · 15.0–33.0 80%
Passing yards
266 mean · 235 median · 156–408 80%
Passing TD
1.44 mean · 74% 1+
Interceptions
0.89 mean · 57% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
11.3 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Carries
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
41 mean · 38 median · 18–65 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–20 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
11.7 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–22.0 80%
Carries
9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
38 mean · 34 median · 9–73 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 13 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Devin Singletary · NYG

Opportunities
9.1 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 33 median · 17–59 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Cam Skattebo · NYG

Opportunities
13.0 mean · 14.0 median · 2.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.7 mean · 11.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
46 mean · 48 median · 8–78 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 0–40 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 29 median · 9–48 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 40 median · 0–70 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 46 median · 15–121 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Marvin Harrison Jr. · ARI · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 43 median · 0–86 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 41 median · 0–122 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Theo Johnson · NYG · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 26 median · 0–49 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 34 median · 11–56 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Malachi Fields · NYG · WR

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 38 median · 13–75 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 28 median · 14–56 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Malik Nabers · NYG · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 38 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
Medium

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ARI 19.2 — NYG 21.0

NYG · 51.0% win probability

Margin
NYG 1.8
Total
40.2

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ARIWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jacoby Brissett · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Carson Beck · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jeremiyah Love · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Bam Knight · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Hunter Long · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Michael Wilson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Reggie Virgil · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Marvin Harrison Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Brooks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kendrick Bourne · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Devin Duvernay · Availability unknown

NYGWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jameis Winston · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Cam Skattebo · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Najee Harris · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Devin Singletary · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Isaiah Likely · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Theo Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Chris Manhertz · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Thomas Fidone II · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Darnell Mooney · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Malik Nabers · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malachi Fields · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonARINYG
Projected points19.221.0
Win probability49.0%51.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates59 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 150 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 10 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYG recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.3; opponent allowed 27.0.

ARI recent scoring form vs NYG prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.0; opponent allowed 18.3.