P5 V4 baseline

LAR at PHI

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

LAR 20.5 — PHI 22.1

PHI slight edge · PHI 50.4%

Projected total 42.5 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects PHI slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans PHI →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 138 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Matthew Stafford · LAR

Attempts
33.8 mean · 34.0 median · 25.0–43.0 80%
Completions
22.5 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–30.0 80%
Passing yards
259 mean · 263 median · 134–372 80%
Passing TD
2.04 mean · 86% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Jalen Hurts · PHI

Attempts
31.8 mean · 31.0 median · 21.0–41.0 80%
Completions
20.8 mean · 21.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
222 mean · 214 median · 133–301 80%
Passing TD
1.39 mean · 73% 1+
Interceptions
0.69 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
11.9 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Carries
11.0 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 50 median · 26–90 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
13.2 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.9 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 46 median · 25–86 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
14.2 mean · 15.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
Carries
11.7 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
47 mean · 46 median · 11–80 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 9 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 20 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Davante Adams · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 38 median · 13–63 80%
Receiving TD
39% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 58 median · 0–100 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 25 median · 0–65 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 19 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Darius Cooper · PHI · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 32 median · 10–65 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 42 median · 0–83 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 34 median · 11–68 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAR 20.5 — PHI 22.1

PHI · 50.4% win probability

Margin
PHI 1.6
Total
42.5

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LARWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Terrance Ferguson · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Davante Adams · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Konata Mumpfield · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Limited

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Xavier Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #4 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

PHIWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jalen Hurts · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Andy Dalton · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Tanner McKee · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tank Bigsby · Full

RB official #3 — Will Shipley · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Did not participate

TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — E.J. Jenkins · Practice squad

WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full

WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLARPHI
Projected points20.522.1
Win probability49.6%50.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status58 updates70 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 138 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAR recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.3; opponent allowed 23.0.

PHI recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.3; opponent allowed 21.0.