Jordan Love · GB
- Attempts
- 35.2 mean · 35.0 median · 26.0–45.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.8 mean · 23.0 median · 15.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 253 mean · 266 median · 156–332 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.57 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
GB at TB
Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT
GB 19.6 — TB 22.9
TB slight edge · TB 55.5%
Projected total 42.5 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
TB slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans TB →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Baker Mayfield · TB
- Attempts
- 32.4 mean · 31.0 median · 23.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.1 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–29.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 227 mean · 224 median · 135–358 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.42 mean · 74% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.74 mean · 51% 1+
Running back ranges
Chris Brooks · GB
- Opportunities
- 10.3 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.3 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 39 median · 22–78 80%
- Receptions
- 1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
MarShawn Lloyd · GB
- Opportunities
- 12.6 mean · 9.0 median · 8.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.1 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 39 mean · 33 median · 20–67 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 12 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Bucky Irving · TB
- Opportunities
- 12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 10.8 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 38 mean · 37 median · 11–63 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 11 median · 0–31 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Tucker Kraft · GB · TE
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 39 mean · 29 median · 0–88 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Jonnu Smith · GB · TE
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 22 median · 7–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Matthew Golden · GB · WR
- Targets
- 6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 46 mean · 51 median · 25–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Jayden Reed · GB · WR
- Targets
- 4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 47 median · 23–70 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Christian Watson · GB · WR
- Targets
- 5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 59 mean · 49 median · 16–98 80%
- Receiving TD
- 33% 1+
Payne Durham · TB · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 22 mean · 19 median · 9–41 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Cade Otton · TB · TE
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 20 median · 0–61 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 26 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 34 median · 0–79 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Jalen McMillan · TB · WR
- Targets
- 4.6 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 38 median · 11–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 29% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
GB 19.6 — TB 22.9
TB · 55.5% win probability
- Margin
- TB 3.3
- Total
- 42.5
As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
GBWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — MarShawn Lloyd · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Chris Brooks · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Kaleb Johnson · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice
TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Josh Whyle · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jayden Reed · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Skyy Moore · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Released
TBWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Baker Mayfield · Did not participate
QB official #2 — Jalon Daniels · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — Bucky Irving · Limited
RB official #2 — Kenny Gainwell · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Sean Tucker · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Cade Otton · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #2 — Payne Durham · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Ko Kieft · Did not participate
TE official #4 — Bauer Sharp · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Emeka Egbuka · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kameron Johnson · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jalen McMillan · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Ted Hurst III · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Chris Godwin Jr. · Did not participate
WR official #2 — Tez Johnson · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.622.9
Win probability44.5%55.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status54 updates75 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
TB recent scoring form vs GB prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.7; opponent allowed 30.3.
GB recent scoring form vs TB prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 18.7; opponent allowed 26.3.
Players
GB
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJordan LoveNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update14.8QBTyrod TaylorCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBMarShawn LloydNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.9RBChris BrooksNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6RBKaleb JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTETucker KraftCurrent status: Returned To PracticeUnknownCurrent status: Returned To Practice5.7TEJonnu SmithCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective10.5TEJosh WhyleNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJayden ReedNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.0WRSkyy MooreCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRMatthew GoldenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6WRJ. Michael SturdivantNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRChristian WatsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6WRBo MeltonReleasedUnknownReleasedProjection unavailableTB
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBaker MayfieldDid not participateUnknownDid not participate17.2QBJalon DanielsCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBBucky IrvingLimitedUnknownLimited10.0RBKenny GainwellNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBSean TuckerCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTECade OttonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective6.5TEPayne DurhamNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.2TEKo KieftDid not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableTEBauer SharpNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWREmeka EgbukaNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.4WRKameron JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJalen McMillanNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.2WRTed Hurst IIINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRChris Godwin Jr.Did not participateUnknownDid not participate9.5WRTez JohnsonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Baker MayfieldTB · #16 · floor 7.6 · upside 25.3TBQB#1615.47.625.3Jordan LoveGB · #20 · floor 7.5 · upside 24.6GBQB#2015.17.524.6MarShawn LloydGB · #22 · floor 3.4 · upside 17.7GBRB#228.03.417.7Chris BrooksGB · #28 · floor 3.6 · upside 16.9GBRB#287.13.616.9Bucky IrvingTB · #34 · floor 1.8 · upside 16.4TBRB#347.71.816.4Christian WatsonGB · #3 · floor 2.6 · upside 21.8GBWR#310.62.621.8Jalen McMillanTB · #21 · floor 2.1 · upside 19.5TBWR#219.12.119.5Matthew GoldenGB · #24 · floor 4.5 · upside 15.9GBWR#249.14.515.9Chris Godwin Jr.TB · #28 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.7TBWR#288.50.018.7Jayden ReedGB · #34 · floor 3.3 · upside 15.8GBWR#348.73.315.8Emeka EgbukaTB · #85 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.7TBWR#854.60.013.7Tucker KraftGB · #5 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.3GBTE#56.40.018.3Jonnu SmithGB · #13 · floor 1.7 · upside 12.9GBTE#135.21.712.9Cade OttonTB · #21 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.1TBTE#214.00.014.1Payne DurhamTB · #41 · floor 1.9 · upside 12.0TBTE#413.91.912.0PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Jordan Love GB · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 35.4 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.8 · 80% 4.1–25.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
MarShawn Lloyd GB · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 12.2 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.9 · 80% 1.0–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Brooks GB · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.4 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.7–16.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Matthew Golden GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jayden Reed GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 0.3–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian Watson GB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 0.9–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tucker Kraft GB · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Returned To Practice
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jonnu Smith GB · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 4.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.5 · 80% 4.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Baker Mayfield TB · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 32.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.2 · 80% 6.5–27.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Bucky Irving TB · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.0 · 80% 2.1–17.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emeka Egbuka TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.7–17.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Godwin Jr. TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.8–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen McMillan TB · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.2 · 80% 1.5–16.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cade Otton TB · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.5 · 80% 0.3–12.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Payne Durham TB · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–12.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
GB offensive TD state2.6 expected7.5% zero · 48.0% 3+
TB offensive TD state2.3 expected9.8% zero · 40.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 2.0 mean · 0.0–5.0 80%Net yards 7 mean · -1–29 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Attempts 3.6 mean · 1.0–6.0 80%Net yards 26 mean · 1–49 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
TB
91 current depth players
70 with prior usage context
2 prior high-snap players
GB
75 current depth players
64 with prior usage context
4 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 3060e2cb3c8f6f1282c1175e0fd6da0b34cf99e8f5012843ea36d028fbe35b2a
Prediction 511572c54789c6fdaccd2974328409f4bcf6d05820b7b9d84b73da35440fc8bb
Week 1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6
As of 2026-09-30 23:46:03
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence