P5 V4 baseline

TEN at BAL

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

TEN 16.9 — BAL 25.6

BAL clear edge · BAL 71.2%

Projected total 42.5 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects BAL clear edge.
Why PardonMe leans BAL →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Lamar Jackson · BAL

Attempts
31.2 mean · 32.0 median · 16.0–42.0 80%
Completions
19.8 mean · 20.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
238 mean · 226 median · 143–321 80%
Passing TD
1.30 mean · 70% 1+
Interceptions
0.71 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Cam Ward · TEN

Attempts
33.5 mean · 33.0 median · 22.0–43.0 80%
Completions
22.0 mean · 22.0 median · 15.0–29.0 80%
Passing yards
220 mean · 215 median · 138–303 80%
Passing TD
1.39 mean · 73% 1+
Interceptions
0.65 mean · 47% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Carries
13.9 mean · 15.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 60 median · 14–103 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–17 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

Opportunities
7.7 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Carries
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 22 median · 11–56 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 23 median · 7–48 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Michael Carter · TEN

Opportunities
13.7 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.0 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 33 median · 17–63 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 7–44 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
High

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
14.8 mean · 13.0 median · 11.0–21.0 80%
Carries
12.6 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 46 median · 26–79 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 11 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 3.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 18 median · 9–37 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Durham Smythe · BAL · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 16 median · 8–24 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 38 median · 13–63 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 49 median · 21–92 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 32 median · 15–66 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Medium

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 13 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 17 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 30 median · 0–93 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 32 median · 0–75 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 33 median · 0–65 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TEN 16.9 — BAL 25.6

BAL · 71.2% win probability

Margin
BAL 8.7
Total
42.5

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TENWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Did not participate

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Did not participate

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Nicholas Singleton · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

BALWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Lamar Jackson · Limited

QB official #2 — Tyler Huntley · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #3 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Durham Smythe · Limited

TE official #2 — Matt Hibner · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Chris Moore · Limited

WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTENBAL
Projected points16.925.6
Win probability28.8%71.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status43 updates56 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 126 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 6 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

TEN recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 12.3; opponent allowed 26.0.

BAL recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.7; opponent allowed 19.7.