P5 V4 baseline

DAL at HOU

Sunday, October 4 · 12:00 PM CDT

DAL 22.3 — HOU 21.7

Nearly even · DAL 56.3%

Projected total 44.1 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects Nearly even.
Why PardonMe leans DAL →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 132 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Dak Prescott · DAL

Attempts
32.6 mean · 34.0 median · 23.0–42.0 80%
Completions
21.4 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
252 mean · 255 median · 154–337 80%
Passing TD
1.50 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.70 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

C.J. Stroud · HOU

Attempts
34.8 mean · 33.0 median · 25.0–46.0 80%
Completions
23.0 mean · 23.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
Passing yards
254 mean · 247 median · 182–342 80%
Passing TD
1.48 mean · 76% 1+
Interceptions
0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
10.2 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Carries
9.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
40 mean · 39 median · 13–65 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–18 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Emari Demercado · DAL

Opportunities
7.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Carries
4.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 28 median · 0–73 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 11 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
Medium

Woody Marks · HOU

Opportunities
11.3 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
39 mean · 37 median · 12–66 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
Medium

David Montgomery · HOU

Opportunities
13.2 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Carries
11.4 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
46 mean · 41 median · 23–76 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 11 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 17 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 23 median · 11–44 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 36 median · 12–97 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 56 median · 0–84 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 45 median · 0–90 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Foster Moreau · HOU · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 22 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 29 median · 10–68 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Nico Collins · HOU · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 50 median · 0–113 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 38 median · 13–63 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Jared Wayne · HOU · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 37 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

16 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DAL 22.3 — HOU 21.7

DAL · 56.3% win probability

Margin
DAL 0.6
Total
44.1

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DALWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emari Demercado · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Tyler Goodson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Luke Schoonmaker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Availability unknown

HOUWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — British Brooks · Did not participate

RB official #4 — Dare Ogunbowale · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Limited

TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi

WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited

WR official #2 — Jared Wayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDALHOU
Projected points22.321.7
Win probability56.3%43.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status28 updates49 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 132 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 5 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

HOU recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 27.3.

DAL recent scoring form vs HOU prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 25.0.