Malik Willis · MIA
- Attempts
- 34.5 mean · 33.0 median · 23.0–49.0 80%
- Completions
- 23.0 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–33.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 264 mean · 253 median · 131–425 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.36 mean · 71% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.77 mean · 53% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
MIA at MIN
Sunday, October 4 · 3:05 PM CDT
MIA 16.1 — MIN 24.8
MIN clear edge · MIN 70.2%
Projected total 40.9 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
MIN clear edge.
Why PardonMe leans MIN →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Kyler Murray · MIN
- Attempts
- 35.1 mean · 34.0 median · 26.0–46.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.8 mean · 22.0 median · 16.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 233 mean · 232 median · 166–333 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.57 mean · 78% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.76 mean · 53% 1+
Running back ranges
Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- Opportunities
- 10.7 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.5 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 36 mean · 31 median · 18–63 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 8 mean · 6 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Demond Claiborne · MIN
- Opportunities
- 10.3 mean · 10.0 median · 2.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.4 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 36 mean · 31 median · 7–71 80%
- Receptions
- 1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 12 mean · 8 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN
- Opportunities
- 14.9 mean · 14.0 median · 7.0–23.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.8 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 43 mean · 39 median · 18–75 80%
- Receptions
- 2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 16 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 21 mean · 23 median · 0–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 12% 1+
Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE
- Targets
- 2.3 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 15 mean · 10 median · 0–39 80%
- Receiving TD
- 11% 1+
Chris Bell · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 42 mean · 29 median · 15–87 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 42 median · 14–84 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR
- Targets
- 4.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 24 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
Gavin Bartholomew · MIN · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 21 median · 0–51 80%
- Receiving TD
- 17% 1+
T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 23 mean · 18 median · 0–45 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Jordan Addison · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 32 mean · 27 median · 0–81 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 37 mean · 33 median · 11–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 35 median · 12–58 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
MIA 16.1 — MIN 24.8
MIN · 70.2% win probability
- Margin
- MIN 8.7
- Total
- 40.9
As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
MIAWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Malik Willis · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Brady Cook · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Jaylen Wright · Limited
RB official #2 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full
TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Limited
WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Did not participate
WR official #2 — Ryan Miller · Availability unknown
MINWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Kyler Murray · Current status: Transaction Effective
QB official #2 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited
RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Josh Oliver · Current status: Supported Unavailable
TE official #3 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Did not participate
WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points16.124.8
Win probability29.8%70.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates66 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 134 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
MIN recent scoring form vs MIA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 28.7.
MIA recent scoring form vs MIN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 12.0; opponent allowed 13.7.
Players
MIA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBMalik WillisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update14.6QBKyle McCordNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBBrady CookNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBJaylen WrightLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableRBOllie Gordon IINo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.7TEGreg DulcichNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.8TEWill KacmarekNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.3TESeydou TraoreFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableTEJustin JolyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRMalik WashingtonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRKevin Coleman Jr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRChris BellLimitedUnknownLimited7.7WRJalen TolbertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.2WRCaleb DouglasDid not participateUnknownDid not participate8.3WRRyan MillerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableMIN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBKyler MurrayCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective16.6QBCarson WentzNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBAaron Jones Sr.LimitedUnknownLimited10.0RBDemond ClaiborneCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective8.2RBDeeJay DallasCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTET.J. HockensonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.3TEJosh OliverCurrent status: Supported UnavailableUnknownCurrent status: Supported UnavailableProjection unavailableTEGavin BartholomewNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.3WRJustin JeffersonDid not participateUnknownDid not participate9.7WRTai FeltonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJordan AddisonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.5WRJauan JenningsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.4WRMyles PriceNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Malik WillisMIA · #3 · floor 9.5 · upside 28.9MIAQB#318.19.528.9Kyler MurrayMIN · #7 · floor 9.8 · upside 25.7MINQB#716.69.825.7Aaron Jones Sr.MIN · #11 · floor 3.5 · upside 19.2MINRB#119.23.519.2Demond ClaiborneMIN · #40 · floor 1.1 · upside 17.5MINRB#406.71.117.5Ollie Gordon IIMIA · #48 · floor 2.5 · upside 15.1MIARB#485.72.515.1Caleb DouglasMIA · #40 · floor 2.4 · upside 18.0MIAWR#407.22.418.0Jauan JenningsMIN · #45 · floor 2.2 · upside 16.4MINWR#458.72.216.4Chris BellMIA · #52 · floor 2.5 · upside 17.2MIAWR#527.42.517.2Justin JeffersonMIN · #68 · floor 2.1 · upside 14.8MINWR#688.12.114.8Jalen TolbertMIA · #81 · floor 0.0 · upside 14.0MIAWR#814.50.014.0Jordan AddisonMIN · #82 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.5MINWR#824.70.016.5Gavin BartholomewMIN · #22 · floor 2.0 · upside 14.2MINTE#224.12.014.2T.J. HockensonMIN · #28 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.3MINTE#285.70.013.3Greg DulcichMIA · #48 · floor 0.0 · upside 10.7MIATE#484.30.010.7Will KacmarekMIA · #59 · floor 0.0 · upside 9.9MIATE#592.00.09.9PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Malik Willis MIA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 34.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.6 · 80% 3.9–25.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ollie Gordon II MIA · RB
- Current role
- RB3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.7 · 80% 0.0–15.6
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Chris Bell MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Active Nfi
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.7 · 80% 0.1–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Caleb Douglas MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 0.6–15.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jalen Tolbert MIA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.2 · 80% 0.0–13.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Greg Dulcich MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Will Kacmarek MIA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 2.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.3 · 80% 0.0–10.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kyler Murray MIN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 34.7 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.6 · 80% 6.0–27.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 13.8 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 10.0 · 80% 2.1–17.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Demond Claiborne MIN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 9.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.2 · 80% 0.3–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jordan Addison MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.5 · 80% 0.8–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Justin Jefferson MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.7 · 80% 2.0–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jauan Jennings MIN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 4.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.4 · 80% 0.8–16.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
T.J. Hockenson MIN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.3 · 80% 0.1–12.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Gavin Bartholomew MIN · TE
- Current role
- TE3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.3 · 80% 0.1–12.5
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
MIA offensive TD state2.0 expected13.3% zero · 32.9% 3+
MIN offensive TD state2.3 expected9.8% zero · 40.9% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueU.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
Roof typeFixed Roof
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastNot ApplicableForecast lead time unknown
Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.7 mean · 1.0–9.0 80%Net yards 40 mean · 3–73 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Attempts 4.7 mean · 2.0–7.0 80%Net yards 31 mean · 17–41 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
MIN
95 current depth players
68 with prior usage context
0 prior high-snap players
MIA
88 current depth players
66 with prior usage context
2 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 8a8cc1ef7cb7b15fad05c9bcfe09093056043a7afa90a55f3830241f150a0d08
Prediction 5fdc1c5cfe27577524e2aefae2a2bdb3fd8e81d6aaafae481a6da51765faae59
Week 1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6
As of 2026-09-30 23:46:03
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence