P5 V4 baseline

KC at LV

Sunday, October 4 · 3:25 PM CDT

KC 21.2 — LV 23.1

LV slight edge · LV 51.9%

Projected total 44.4 · Confidence: limited evidence

PardonMe projects LV slight edge.
Why PardonMe leans LV →

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Patrick Mahomes · KC

Attempts
32.1 mean · 32.0 median · 23.0–43.0 80%
Completions
20.1 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
228 mean · 235 median · 149–311 80%
Passing TD
1.31 mean · 71% 1+
Interceptions
0.74 mean · 52% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Kirk Cousins · LV

Attempts
32.5 mean · 33.0 median · 22.0–45.0 80%
Completions
20.6 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Passing yards
222 mean · 204 median · 133–342 80%
Passing TD
1.38 mean · 73% 1+
Interceptions
0.70 mean · 50% 1+
Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
9.2 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
Carries
7.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 24 median · 8–63 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
15.9 mean · 15.0 median · 5.0–24.0 80%
Carries
12.1 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 34 median · 4–65 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
10.5 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–21.0 80%
Carries
8.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 33 median · 14–92 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Noah Gray · KC · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 9 median · 0–37 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 33 median · 0–67 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 36 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Tyquan Thornton · KC · WR

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 38 median · 19–94 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 37 median · 12–61 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 25 median · 0–67 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
Medium

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 19 median · 10–57 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 48 median · 16–80 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 34 median · 11–67 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Model comparison

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

KC 21.2 — LV 23.1

LV · 51.9% win probability

Margin
LV 1.9
Total
44.4

As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

KCWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kenneth Walker · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Brashard Smith · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Full

WR official #2 — Tyquan Thornton · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nikko Remigio · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Cyrus Allen · Availability unknown

LVWeek 4 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Dareke Young · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Cody White · Full

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonKCLV
Projected points21.223.1
Win probability48.1%51.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status38 updates76 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 135 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 2 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LV recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 16.7.

KC recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.3; opponent allowed 18.0.