Bo Nix · DEN
- Attempts
- 33.0 mean · 33.0 median · 22.0–44.0 80%
- Completions
- 22.2 mean · 22.0 median · 14.0–30.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 235 mean · 224 median · 142–329 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.18 mean · 68% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.69 mean · 49% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
DEN at SF
Sunday, October 4 · 3:25 PM CDT
DEN 19.2 — SF 26.5
SF edge · SF 66.6%
Projected total 45.7 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
SF edge.
Why PardonMe leans SF →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 99 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Brock Purdy · SF
- Attempts
- 31.6 mean · 32.0 median · 25.0–39.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 15.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 235 mean · 228 median · 131–313 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.85 mean · 83% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.73 mean · 51% 1+
Running back ranges
J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–17.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.1 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–15.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 48 mean · 47 median · 24–72 80%
- Receptions
- 1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 6 mean · 6 median · 0–15 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
RJ Harvey · DEN
- Opportunities
- 9.0 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
- Carries
- 6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 26 mean · 23 median · 0–54 80%
- Receptions
- 2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 14 mean · 12 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Kaelon Black · SF
- Opportunities
- 11.1 mean · 10.0 median · 4.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.4 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–17.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 40 mean · 34 median · 13–74 80%
- Receptions
- 1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 27% 1+
Christian McCaffrey · SF
- Opportunities
- 12.3 mean · 13.0 median · 2.0–22.0 80%
- Carries
- 8.8 mean · 9.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 33 mean · 32 median · 0–64 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 15 median · 0–39 80%
- Total TD
- 29% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Evan Engram · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 20 median · 0–49 80%
- Receiving TD
- 14% 1+
Adam Trautman · DEN · TE
- Targets
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 24 mean · 19 median · 9–38 80%
- Receiving TD
- 16% 1+
Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 36 mean · 33 median · 10–67 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 40 median · 0–81 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR
- Targets
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 48 mean · 45 median · 0–90 80%
- Receiving TD
- 23% 1+
George Kittle · SF · TE
- Targets
- 4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 33 mean · 33 median · 0–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Brayden Willis · SF · TE
- Targets
- 0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 7 mean · 0 median · 0–31 80%
- Receiving TD
- 7% 1+
Mike Evans · SF · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 38 median · 0–77 80%
- Receiving TD
- 25% 1+
KhaDarel Hodge · SF · WR
- Targets
- 3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 31 mean · 24 median · 0–65 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
15 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
DEN 19.2 — SF 26.5
SF · 66.6% win probability
- Margin
- SF 7.3
- Total
- 45.7
As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
DENWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Bo Nix · Current status: Transaction Effective
QB official #2 — Jarrett Stidham · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Sam Ehlinger · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #1 — J.K. Dobbins · Full
RB official #2 — RJ Harvey · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Tyler Badie · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — Evan Engram · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Adam Trautman · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #3 — Nate Adkins · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Dallen Bentley · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #1 — Marvin Mims Jr. · Full
WR official #2 — Troy Franklin · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jaylen Waddle · Full
WR official #2 — Lil'Jordan Humphrey · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Courtland Sutton · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Pat Bryant · Availability unknown
SFWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 2
RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Did not participate
RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Availability unknown
RB official #3 — Jordan James · Availability unknown
TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup
TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Did not participate
WR official #2 — Jacob Cowing · Availability unknown
WR official #3 — KhaDarel Hodge · Did not participate
WR official #1 — Deebo Samuel Sr. · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points19.226.5
Win probability33.4%66.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status67 updates68 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 99 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 3 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
SF recent scoring form vs DEN prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 32.7; opponent allowed 23.3.
DEN recent scoring form vs SF prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 20.0; opponent allowed 16.7.
Players
DEN
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBo NixCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective15.1QBJarrett StidhamNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBSam EhlingerCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableRBJ.K. DobbinsFullUnknownFull8.4RBRJ HarveyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.9RBTyler BadieNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEEvan EngramNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.3TEAdam TrautmanCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective5.7TENate AdkinsNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEDallen BentleyCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableWRMarvin Mims Jr.FullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRTroy FranklinNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaylen WaddleFullUnknownFull8.8WRLil'Jordan HumphreyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.6WRCourtland SuttonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.3WRPat BryantNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableSF
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBBrock PurdyNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update17.4QBMac JonesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBKurtis RourkeInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailableRBChristian McCaffreyDid not participateUnknownDid not participate9.5RBKaelon BlackNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.0RBJordan JamesNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEGeorge KittleReserve status: Active PupUnknownReserve status: Active Pup6.6TELuke FarrellNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTEBrayden WillisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update3.4WRMike EvansDid not participateUnknownDid not participate9.9WRJacob CowingNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRKhaDarel HodgeDid not participateUnknownDid not participate9.5WRDeebo Samuel Sr.No confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJordan WatkinsInactive for Week 2UnknownInactive for Week 2Projection unavailablePlayer projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Brock PurdySF · #4 · floor 9.6 · upside 27.5SFQB#417.69.627.5Bo NixDEN · #25 · floor 7.1 · upside 23.0DENQB#2514.37.123.0Christian McCaffreySF · #25 · floor 0.0 · upside 19.9SFRB#258.40.019.9J.K. DobbinsDEN · #36 · floor 3.4 · upside 14.8DENRB#367.53.414.8RJ HarveyDEN · #38 · floor 0.9 · upside 18.1DENRB#387.10.918.1Kaelon BlackSF · #41 · floor 1.9 · upside 16.7SFRB#416.91.916.7Jaylen WaddleDEN · #26 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.5DENWR#2610.00.018.5Mike EvansSF · #39 · floor 0.0 · upside 18.2SFWR#399.10.018.2Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · #61 · floor 2.0 · upside 15.6DENWR#616.32.015.6Courtland SuttonDEN · #67 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.7DENWR#677.00.016.7KhaDarel HodgeSF · #84 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.9SFWR#845.70.013.9George KittleSF · #6 · floor 0.0 · upside 16.5SFTE#66.30.016.5Adam TrautmanDEN · #25 · floor 1.9 · upside 11.7DENTE#255.71.911.7Evan EngramDEN · #31 · floor 0.0 · upside 11.9DENTE#314.00.011.9Brayden WillisSF · #60 · floor 0.0 · upside 6.1SFTE#600.00.06.1PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Bo Nix DEN · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 33.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 15.1 · 80% 4.4–25.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 11.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 8.4 · 80% 0.5–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
RJ Harvey DEN · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 9.9 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 7.9 · 80% 0.0–15.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Courtland Sutton DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.3 · 80% 0.6–16.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaylen Waddle DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.8 · 80% 1.1–16.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.2 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.6 · 80% 1.0–16.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Evan Engram DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.3 · 80% 0.0–11.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Adam Trautman DEN · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.7 · 80% 0.0–11.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brock Purdy SF · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 31.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 17.4 · 80% 6.7–28.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Christian McCaffrey SF · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 10.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.7–17.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Kaelon Black SF · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Not Yet Available
- Projected workload
- 11.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.1–16.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Mike Evans SF · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.9 · 80% 2.2–17.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
KhaDarel Hodge SF · WR
- Current role
- WR4
- Prior usage
- 0% offense
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.5 · 80% 1.8–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
George Kittle SF · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Active Pup
- Projected workload
- 3.5 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.6 · 80% 0.4–12.8
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Brayden Willis SF · TE
- Current role
- TE3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 1.6 targets
- Full-PPR
- 3.4 · 80% 0.0–9.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
DEN offensive TD state2.5 expected8.0% zero · 46.1% 3+
SF offensive TD state2.3 expected9.6% zero · 41.6% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueVenue unknown
Roof typeUnknown
Playing surfaceUnknown
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Game environment Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.4 mean · 3.0–9.0 80%Net yards 18 mean · 2–49 80%Rush TD 4% 1+
Attempts 3.6 mean · 2.0–7.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 4–44 80%Rush TD 6% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
SF
57 current depth players
46 with prior usage context
2 prior high-snap players
DEN
59 current depth players
53 with prior usage context
1 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 2af8155458110e57b581f798ed2ff605392698ca68f44dbc24927168855396cc
Prediction ebd5f11926aff4a776a801b1655302843fb83aa1b6464a92c030601de9a99271
Week 1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6
As of 2026-09-30 23:46:03
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence