Justin Herbert · LAC
- Attempts
- 33.5 mean · 33.0 median · 24.0–43.0 80%
- Completions
- 21.4 mean · 21.0 median · 14.0–28.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 243 mean · 249 median · 145–343 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.53 mean · 77% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.74 mean · 52% 1+
P5 V4 baseline
LAC at SEA
Sunday, October 4 · 3:25 PM CDT
LAC 17.2 — SEA 24.8
SEA edge · SEA 66.6%
Projected total 42.0 · Confidence: limited evidence
PardonMe projects
SEA edge.
Why PardonMe leans SEA →
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct: Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 118 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 1 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
Player stat models
Player projections
Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.
Quarterback ranges
Sam Darnold · SEA
- Attempts
- 35.4 mean · 34.0 median · 29.0–48.0 80%
- Completions
- 23.3 mean · 23.0 median · 17.0–31.0 80%
- Passing yards
- 257 mean · 283 median · 152–323 80%
- Passing TD
- 1.37 mean · 73% 1+
- Interceptions
- 0.80 mean · 54% 1+
Running back ranges
Omarion Hampton · LAC
- Opportunities
- 16.2 mean · 16.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
- Carries
- 13.0 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 47 mean · 44 median · 19–76 80%
- Receptions
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 17 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
- Total TD
- 34% 1+
Jadarian Price · SEA
- Opportunities
- 12.2 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
- Carries
- 9.8 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
- Targets
- 2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 42 mean · 38 median · 18–71 80%
- Receptions
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 13 mean · 12 median · 0–29 80%
- Total TD
- 30% 1+
Emanuel Wilson · SEA
- Opportunities
- 12.8 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–21.0 80%
- Carries
- 11.0 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
- Targets
- 1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Rushing yards
- 46 mean · 41 median · 18–82 80%
- Receptions
- 1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
- Total TD
- 32% 1+
Receiver and tight end ranges
Oronde Gadsden · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 2.5 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 26 mean · 27 median · 0–54 80%
- Receiving TD
- 13% 1+
Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE
- Targets
- 3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 29 mean · 23 median · 10–47 80%
- Receiving TD
- 19% 1+
Tre' Harris · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 40 mean · 33 median · 22–66 80%
- Receiving TD
- 21% 1+
Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 42 median · 14–84 80%
- Receiving TD
- 26% 1+
Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR
- Targets
- 5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 41 mean · 37 median · 12–86 80%
- Receiving TD
- 27% 1+
AJ Barner · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 27 mean · 20 median · 10–49 80%
- Receiving TD
- 18% 1+
Eric Saubert · SEA · TE
- Targets
- 3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
- Receptions
- 2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 20 mean · 18 median · 9–37 80%
- Receiving TD
- 15% 1+
Montorie Foster Jr. · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
- Receiving TD
- 20% 1+
Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
- Receptions
- 3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 44 mean · 40 median · 13–80 80%
- Receiving TD
- 22% 1+
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR
- Targets
- 6.4 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
- Receptions
- 4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
- Receiving yards
- 64 mean · 73 median · 15–117 80%
- Receiving TD
- 30% 1+
14 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.
Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.
Model comparison
PardonMe Unified
Best historical score model
Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.
Full Football
Personnel-aware football model
Full Football unavailable.
P5 V4 baseline
Previous production baseline
LAC 17.2 — SEA 24.8
SEA · 66.6% win probability
- Margin
- SEA 7.5
- Total
- 42.0
As of Sep 30, 2026 23:46 UTC
Current personnel
Expected lineup & depth
Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.
LACWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Trey Lance · Limited
RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown
RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited
RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective
TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Did not participate
TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Hayden Rucci · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Limited
WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown
WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Availability unknown
WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Did not participate
WR official #3 — Marquez Valdes-Scantling · Availability unknown
SEAWeek 4 expected order
No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.
QB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
RB: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
TE: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Availability for this game is not confirmed.
WR: Official depth order is ambiguous.
Official depth & availability evidence
QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Availability unknown
QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Availability unknown
QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown
RB official #1 — Jadarian Price · Limited
RB official #2 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective
RB official #3 — George Holani · Limited
TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Availability unknown
TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown
TE official #3 — Elijah Arroyo · Availability unknown
TE official #4 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Current status: Transaction Effective
WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown
WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Full
WR official #2 — Montorie Foster Jr. · Practice squad
PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.
Overview
Projected points17.224.8
Win probability33.4%66.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates46 updates
Matchup context
Current expectation and observed workload are distinct
Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 118 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 1 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.
LAC recent scoring form vs SEA prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 14.7; opponent allowed 16.7.
SEA recent scoring form vs LAC prevention
2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 25.3.
Players
LAC
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBJustin HerbertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update14.9QBTrey LanceLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableRBOmarion HamptonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.4RBKeaton MitchellLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableRBKimani VidalCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveProjection unavailableTECharlie KolarDid not participateUnknownDid not participate5.5TEOronde GadsdenNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update4.8TEHayden RucciNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRLadd McConkeyLimitedUnknownLimited8.7WRTre' HarrisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update8.0WRDerius DavisNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRQuentin JohnstonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update7.8WRBrenen ThompsonDid not participateUnknownDid not participateProjection unavailableWRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableSEA
PosPlayerRoleStatusFantasy
QBSam DarnoldNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update16.4QBDrew LockNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableQBJalen MilroeNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableRBJadarian PriceLimitedUnknownLimited9.4RBEmanuel WilsonCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective9.3RBGeorge HolaniLimitedUnknownLimitedProjection unavailableTEAJ BarnerNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update6.7TEEric SaubertNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update5.2TEElijah ArroyoNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableTENick KallerupNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRJaxon Smith-NjigbaCurrent status: Transaction EffectiveUnknownCurrent status: Transaction Effective10.5WRTory HortonNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed updateProjection unavailableWRCooper KuppNo confirmed updateUnknownNo confirmed update9.0WRRashid ShaheedFullUnknownFullProjection unavailableWRMontorie Foster Jr.Practice squadUnknownPractice squad9.3Player projection ranges now appear in Player projections above.
Fantasy
Full-PPR
Full rankings →Game projections
PlayerTeamPosRankMedianFloorUpside
Justin HerbertLAC · #9 · floor 8.5 · upside 26.1LACQB#916.48.526.1Sam DarnoldSEA · #24 · floor 7.4 · upside 22.9SEAQB#2414.37.422.9Omarion HamptonLAC · #4 · floor 3.9 · upside 19.8LACRB#410.43.919.8Jadarian PriceSEA · #21 · floor 3.2 · upside 17.6SEARB#218.13.217.6Emanuel WilsonSEA · #27 · floor 2.5 · upside 17.9SEARB#277.62.517.9Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · #2 · floor 2.5 · upside 23.2SEAWR#212.32.523.2Ladd McConkeyLAC · #25 · floor 2.2 · upside 19.4LACWR#258.22.219.4Quentin JohnstonLAC · #29 · floor 2.4 · upside 19.2LACWR#297.22.419.2Cooper KuppSEA · #31 · floor 2.3 · upside 17.6SEAWR#317.02.317.6Tre' HarrisLAC · #35 · floor 4.2 · upside 16.5LACWR#358.44.216.5Montorie Foster Jr.SEA · #59 · floor 2.3 · upside 18.1SEAWR#596.82.318.1AJ BarnerSEA · #17 · floor 2.0 · upside 13.9SEATE#175.92.013.9Charlie KolarLAC · #18 · floor 2.1 · upside 11.5LACTE#185.42.111.5Oronde GadsdenLAC · #36 · floor 0.0 · upside 13.1LACTE#364.70.013.1Eric SaubertSEA · #43 · floor 1.9 · upside 9.8SEATE#433.81.99.8PardonMe vs the Odds
PardonMe projections are produced independently of sportsbook lines.
Current game market comparisons are not available yet.
More
Advanced player detail →
Justin Herbert LAC · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 33.9 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 14.9 · 80% 4.2–25.5
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Omarion Hampton LAC · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 14.1 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Quentin Johnston LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 7.8 · 80% 0.1–15.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Ladd McConkey LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.7 · 80% 1.0–16.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Tre' Harris LAC · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 5.0 targets
- Full-PPR
- 8.0 · 80% 0.3–15.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Charlie Kolar LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 3.4 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.5 · 80% 0.0–11.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Oronde Gadsden LAC · TE
- Current role
- TE3
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.9 targets
- Full-PPR
- 4.8 · 80% 0.0–11.0
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Sam Darnold SEA · QB
- Current role
- QB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 35.3 pass attempts
- Full-PPR
- 16.4 · 80% 5.7–27.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone passing: Unknown attempts · Unknown completions · Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jadarian Price SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 12.0 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.4 · 80% 1.5–17.3
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Emanuel Wilson SEA · RB
- Current role
- RB2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 12.3 opportunities
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.4–17.2
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone rushing: Unknown attempts · Unknown inside 10 · Unknown inside 5 · Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Cooper Kupp SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 4.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.0 · 80% 1.3–16.7
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Current status: Transaction Effective
- Projected workload
- 5.8 targets
- Full-PPR
- 10.5 · 80% 2.8–18.1
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Montorie Foster Jr. SEA · WR
- Current role
- WR2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- Practice squad
- Projected workload
- 5.1 targets
- Full-PPR
- 9.3 · 80% 1.6–17.0
- Projection basis
- Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
AJ Barner SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE1
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 3.3 targets
- Full-PPR
- 6.7 · 80% 0.4–12.9
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Eric Saubert SEA · TE
- Current role
- TE2
- Prior usage
- Unknown
- Availability
- No confirmed update yet
- Projected workload
- 2.7 targets
- Full-PPR
- 5.2 · 80% 0.0–11.4
- Projection basis
- Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence
- Matchup context
- Prior scoring opportunities
- Prior red-zone receiving: Unknown targets · Unknown receptions · Prior team red-zone environment: Unknown · End-zone targets: Unknown
Touchdown connections
These probabilities preserve each player's independent touchdown outlook while adding supported within-game connection context.
LAC offensive TD state2.0 expected13.9% zero · 31.5% 3+
SEA offensive TD state2.3 expected10.1% zero · 40.3% 3+
Weather & venue
VenueLumen Field · Seattle, WA
Roof typeOpen Air
Playing surfaceArtificial Turf
ForecastUnknownForecast lead time unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Static venue facts are not live weather. Missing forecast does not mean neutral weather.
Madden talent context
Position-peer Madden attribute context from expected depth slots; this is separate from real EA OVR identity.
Unit matchup indexes
Quarterback rushing ranges
Net rushing definition includes kneels and legitimate negative net yards.
Attempts 5.1 mean · 2.0–10.0 80%Net yards 25 mean · 0–66 80%Rush TD 2% 1+
Attempts 2.6 mean · 0.0–6.0 80%Net yards 6 mean · -1–23 80%Rush TD 1% 1+
Depth and status detail
Current depthBoth teams available
AvailabilityNot yet required
Practice report timingNot yet required
WeatherNot yet available
Completeness notes
- Not yet required
- Current Depth Not Historical Role Input
- Rolling History Bridge Confidence Penalty
- Weather Forecast Not Yet Available
Team role detail
SEA
79 current depth players
59 with prior usage context
0 prior high-snap players
LAC
82 current depth players
59 with prior usage context
1 prior high-snap players
Sources & methodology
Projection snapshots
Feature 61b7b15c33ee0f1ddcec97ff173f05e78cd90d32dac831fb4f8fd13c9666b500
Prediction a4fae488cdc6ddbc26a2793bef4ac98d65c55dcefc6b94a2afdf3dcdbb2c0a58
Week 1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6
As of 2026-09-30 23:46:03
Serving contracts used
- Game projection:
nfl_matchup_serving(game_id) - Player context:
nfl_matchup_players_serving(game_id) - Forward fantasy:
nfl_game_forward_fantasy(game_id, 'full_ppr') - Market comparisons:
nfl_game_market_comparisons(game_id) - Unit and passing context:
nfl_unit_matchups_servingandnfl_passing_matchups_serving
Current support states
- Depth support: Both teams available
- Availability support: Not yet required
- Weather support: Not yet available
- Projection confidence (technical): Insufficient Evidence / Insufficient Evidence